Matt Ryan, QB ATL ($6,400 DraftKings, 7.09% Ownership)
Matt Ryan is currently averaging 22.9 FPPG and leads the league with 5 games of 300+ yards thrown, which is a 3 point bonus on DraftKings. The Cardinals DST is allowing 22.5 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, which ranks 4th in the NFL. Ryan has been pretty solid in his career on the road, averaging 272.9 yards per game on the road versus only 267.6 yards per game at home. He also has more TDs (158) on the road than at home (148) in his career and will face a secondary that has been exposed consistently this season, allowing multiple scores through the air in 4 of their 5 games this season.
Kyler Murray, QB ARZ ($6,500 DraftKings: 5.56% Owned)
Let’s admit that Kyler Murray is better than we all thought he would be. Murray has thrown for 240+ yards in his 4 of his 5 games this season, along with 308+ yards in 2 of the 5, ALL AS A ROOKIE.
He won’t have much of a test this week, as he is facing a pourous Falcons secondary that is allowing 24.8 FPPG to opposing QB’s, which is 2nd in the NFL. This defense is also allowing 45.3 FPPG to opposing Wide Receivers, which is 1st in the league. His mobility is a matchup problem for defenses, forcing the linebackers to stay home, while creating man coverage on the outside. Murray is averaging 40.2 pass attempts per game, which is the 4th most in the league. Look for the Cardinals to air it out this week and for another breakout performance from the #1 Overall Pick.
Mark Ingram, RB BAL vs. CIN ($6,600 DraftKings: 6.96% Owned)
Mark Ingram has been wildly inconsistent, but surprising effective this season. His Week 1 (14-107-2) and Week 3 (16-103-3) performances were completely unexpected, but he has since come back down to earth in his last 2 contests (10.5 FPPG).
He will square off this week against a Bengals defense that really can’t stop anyone, allowing 838 total rushing yards, or 167.6 rushing yards per game, which is the 2nd most in the league. They are also allowing 37.9 FPPG to opposing running backs, which is the most in the NFL this season. Look for Ingram to CALL SEPPY.
Chris Carson, RB SEA ($6,000 DraftKings: 12.87% Owned)
For a guy that no one wanted to draft in season long fantasy leagues, Chris Carson has delivered and continues to be a DFS value on a weekly basis. Carson is averaging 24.5 carries and 111.0 yards per game, with an impressive 21.9 DraftKing points in his last 2 contests.
The Browns have allowed 754 rushing yards, or 150.8 rushing yards per game this season, which ranks 4th worst in the NFL. Carson is the clear bellcow in Seattle (65% snapcount) and I don’t see Rashaad Penny (25% snapcount) taking his job any time soon.
Derrick Henry, RB TEN ($6,100 DraftKings: 4.72% Owned)
Long Live the Flex (See Below). Derrick Henry has finally become the bellcow back that we have been expecting in Tennessee and even Dion Lewis is copping to it. While Dion Lewis is still running 43% of the Titans offensive snaps on the season, he has only been on the field for 28% and 40% of their offensive snaps in the last 2 weeks. And in those 2 weeks, Henry has averaged 23.5 carries per game, while being on the field for 75% and 61% of the offensive snaps.
Henry will take on the Denver Broncos this week, who have allowed 27.8 FPPG to opposing running backs, which is the 5th most in the league this season. Look for Henry to bulldoze this defense and have one of his best games of the season.
Le’Veon Bell, RB NYJ ($6,400 DraftKings: 6.89% Owned)
This matchup could be game-flow dependent and the Jets could find themselves down big early, making the potential for garbage time almost guaranteed. But the Cowboys have not been great this season against the run, allowing 27.8 FPPG to opposing running backs, which ranks 6th in the NFL. They have also allowed 118.5 rushing yards per game in their last 2 contests and 4 TDs. They have struggled against pass catching running backs, allowing 37 receptions (4th) and 282 receiving yards (5th) to running backs. This matchup bodes well for Bell’s skillset and he should provide decent production this week.
Terry McLaurin, WR WAS ($6,000 DraftKings: 8.27% Owned)
Not only is Terry McLaurin leading this Redskins with 31 targets, but he has also been on the field for 91% of the Redskins offensive snaps, which leads all WAS receivers as well.
This week, he will take on a Dolphins team that is allowing 39.1 FPPG to opposing WRs, which ranks 9th in the league. He will go head to head with Xavien Howard, which would have been an easy fade this time last year after his 2018 Pro Bowl Campaign. But Howard has come crashing back down to earth, allowing a 141.2 QB rating when targeted. Look for McLaurin to capitalize on this matchup against a struggling All Pro.
Dede Westbrook, WR JAX ($5,100 DraftKings: 2.82% Owned)
Dede Westbrook is lining up in the slot on 86.5% of his snaps, which currently ranks 7th in the league. New Orleans is allowing 27.8 FPPG to opposing slot receivers, which ranks 3rd in the NFL. While DJ Chark leads the Jaguars this season with 36 targets, Westbrook is 2nd on the list with 34 total targets, which means he is heavily involved in this offense and should be a sneaky cheap play this week.
Mohamed Sanu, WR ATL ($4,500 DraftKings: 4.29% Owned)
- 85.8% of his snaps from the slot this season (6th most in the NFL)
- 8th most receiving yards (233) in the NFL from the slot
- 2nd best catch rate from the slot in the league (82.8%).
Sanu will face a Cardinals DST allowing 31.9 FPPG to opposing slot receivers, which ranks 1st in the NFL. Sanu is still heavily involved in this offense and has been on the field for 82% of the Falcons offensive snaps this season, which is the most among Atlanta wide receivers (yes, even more than Julio Jones at 76%). Look for Sanu to far outperform expectations.
Trey Quinn, WR WAS ($3,700 DraftKings: 2.92% Owned)
This is a desperation play and a “Proceed with Caution” to all, but Trey Quinn has run 80.5% of his snaps from the slot and has been on the field for 81% of the Redskins offensive snaps this season. That is significant volume and shows that he will continue to be heavily involved in this offense. The Redskins are immersed in a mediocre QB battle right now, but Quinn is currently 2nd on this team in targets (26), only behind Terry McLaurin (31).
The Dolphins have allowed 26.9 FPPG to opposing slot receivers this season, which is the 4th most in the league. He is set to face off against:
- Eric Rowe CB MIA: 149.3 QB rating in slot coverage
- Jomal Wiltz CB MIA: 156.3 QB rating in slot coverage
This matchup feels right and Quinn could be a sneaky low end value play this week.
KeeSean Johnson, WR ARZ ($3,900 DraftKings: 2.40% Owned)
This is another dart throw, but KeeSean Johnson has played 64% of the Cardinals offensive snaps this season, which ranks 4th among ARZ receivers. However, after Christian Kirk missed last week’s game with an ankle injury, Johnson played 95% of the offensive snaps, which led all ARZ receivers. With Kirk set to be a gametime decision, Johnson could be in line for his best game of the season.
The Atlanta Falcons are currently allowing 45.3 FPPG to opposing Wide Receivers, which is the most in the NFL. While Atlanta is pretty good at defending the slot, ranking 14th in the league in slot coverage, they have been decimated on the outside, allowing the 4th most fantasy points in the league to wide receivers both lined up to the left and right. KeeSean Johnson lines up out wide to the right side on 90% of his snaps, so look for him to take advantage of these favorable matchups:
- Isaiah Oliver, CB ATL: 132.9 QB Rating when targeted
- Damontae Kazee, CB ATL: 132.8 QB Rating when targeted
- Desmond Trufant, CB ATL: 106.8 QB Rating when targeted
The Cardinals almost never line up receivers to the left side (5% max), so look for the Falcons to bounce around in coverage and for the Cardinals to take advantage.
Austin Hooper, TE ATL ($5,000 DraftKings: 21.34% Owned)
Austin Hooper has run 192 receiving routes this season, which leads the league among TEs. His 34 receptions are good for 2nd in the league, while his 363 receiving yards are good for 3rd among TEs. The Atlanta Falcons currently rank 5th in the NFL in targets to the Tight End position and have never ranked higher than 14th in that category since 2014. This shows a commitment in getting the ball to the Tight End spot.
The Cardinals are allowing 23.0 FPPG to opposing Tight Ends this season, which ranks 1st in the league. Austin Hooper may be the chalk this week (21.34% ownership, 3rd highest overall), but he could also be your lock of the week and help you cash. Set it and forget it.
Noah Fant, TE DEN ($2,900 DraftKings: 1.94% Owned)
The Tight End position is a dumpster fire and one where it is almost impossible to find serviceable options outside of the Top 5. Noah Fant is no exception, showing glimpses of hope but underachieving thus far. Fant has been on the field for 69% of the Broncos offensive snaps this season and has run the 10th most receiving routes in the NFL among TEs. The Titans are allowing 14.8 FPPG to opposing TEs, which ranks 7th in the league. Look for Fant to outperform expectations this week.
Will Dissly, TE SEA ($4,900 DraftKings: 7.83% Owned)
Will Dissly has only run 97 receiving routes this season, which only ranks 20th in the league among TEs. But he has made the most of those routes, pulling in 23 receptions (7th) on 25 targets (9th) for 262 yards (7th). The Cleveland Browns are allowing 14.4 FPPG to opposing TEs, which ranks 8th in the NFL. Look for Dissly to have a solid outing this on the road.
I got nothing for you and won’t pretend I can pick defenses, but I like the Houston DST this week, having scored at least 8.0 DraftKings points in 4 of their 5 games this season. The Chiefs and Mahomes are tough, but they were bottled up last week.
I also like the 49ers DST this week on the road at the Rams, as they have scored at least 7.0 DraftKings points in all 4 of their games this season, including a 27.0 point effort in Week 1 and a 19.0 effort in Week 5. Goff can be got.
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