After a 2 week break the UFC is back with a card this Saturday. In the main event we have Sean Strickland taking on Jack Hermanson in a key middleweight tilt. Honestly this card is pretty tricky from a DFS perspective, not the best card to be honest so I’ll have less lineups than usual. Let’s take a look at a few fighters to target.
There are not a lot of of fighters I like above 9k. Brendan Allen should take care of business, but I’m a tad hesitant due to the fact he hasn’t had a full camp and he’s fighting at 205. Yes I’m aware that Alvey has lost 6 in a row, but Allen is also coming off a brutal TKO at the hands of Chris Curtis which was back in December. Not saying Allen can’t win, but I just don’t see him scoring a first round finish or scoring more that 100. I’m not a fan of paying up for guys making their UFC debut, but I think Danys Bondar ($9100) could score really well. The Ukranian is a really well-rounded fighter with diverse striking, a solid clinch game and a slick submission game as well. We backed Gordon as a big dog last time out against Francisco Figueiredo but his durability can be questioned at times. Bondar is better everywhere here and I am confident he can get a finish here.
My favorite fighter at the 8900-8000 range is Punahele Soriano at $8600 against Nick Maximov. Don’t get me wrong, I like Maximov, he’s a hell of a competitor, but this is a big step up in competition. I’m honestly shocked this is the co-main event to be honest, like really? These guys??? Anyways, on the feet this is a complete mismatch. Maximov’s striking is sub-par, and it’s evident that his path to victory is to get this to the ground. I just don’t think it’s gonna go there. Soriano’s takedown defense is solid, which can be attributed to his wrestling and judo background. I think Soriano scores well here and is very capable of getting a 1st round finish. I will also be putting Phil Rowe and Chidi Njokuani into some lineups as well.
Carlston Harris/Shavkhar Rakhmonov – I think the winner of this one scores well, as both guys are finishers. I will definitely be split down the middle on this one. From a betting perspective it’s Harris or pass, but on DK it’s split for me. Both fighters have multiple paths to victory here, really looking forward to this one.
I’m going to the bottom of the barrell here and taking a shot with Danilo Marquez at $6800. There is no way that Marquez should be this big of an underdog. He’s coming off a tough loss against Kennedy Nzechukwu, a loss to where he won the first two rounds and ran out of gas but the stoppage was a bit early in my opinion. The crazy thing here is his opponent, Jailton Almeida was an underdog in his last fight on the contender series, so now he’s making his UFC debut against a guy who’s 2-1 in the UFC and he’s a -400 favorite? All of Almeida’s wins on the regional scene are against low-level guys, maybe I’m missing something, but I don’t think Almeida’s striking is anything special. Marquez definitely has the grappling advantage. This line doesn’t make sense and all we need is a decision win with a takedown and control time to pay off the $6800 salary. We’ve seen it happen quite a few times where the highest priced fighter has lost and it could very well happen on Saturday.
Other dogs to consider: John Castaneda ($7300)
Best of luck with your lineups and enjoy the fights!!!