The UFC is back in Vegas this weekend as Alexander Volkov takes on Alistair Overeem in the main event. In the co-main, Cory Sandhagen takes on the legend Frankie Edgar in a pivotal bantamweight bout. When I first looked at this card, I thought the lines were off a little bit on many fights. I still feel the same today, many fights that the lines don’t indicate how close the fight should be. Let’s look at some fighters to target.

Chalk

Cody Stamann $9200 – Stamann will be taking on Askar Askar, who took this fight on short notice after Andre Ewell was pulled. This is a tad risky, seeing how Stamann is 2-2-1 in his last five fights, but he is the superior fighter here and can win this fight anywhere it goes. I look for Stamann to get a lot of takedowns and score well. He may not be highly owned due to his tendency not to score well, but I think he rolls here.

I may have Devonte Smith ($9200) in a lineup or two, he’s won 2 of 3 in the UFC, and both have come by way of first-round knockout. He’s a much better fighter and athlete, and the speed advantage is not even close. Smith’s sizeable reach advantage will be much for Justin Jaynes.

Mid-Tier

Carlos Diego Ferreira $8200 – I can see why this is closely lined as these guys fought back in 2014. It was a fight that saw Dariush controlling the whole fight. Fast forward to now, and Carlos Diego Ferreira has improved leaps and bounds and run off a six-fight win streak, all impressive and all dominant performances. The output and pace that he sets are extremely impressive, which was evident in the performance against Mairbek Taisumov back in July of 2019. While I think Dariush has had some solid performances recently, Ferriera’s striking will be the difference. I think Carlos is the better fighter, and I think he puts on a pace that Dariush can’t match.  

Dog

Alistair Overeem $7600 – I honestly think the line is off here; Alexander Volkov has never really impressed me. Volkov put on a lot of weight for his last fight and was impressive knocking out Walt Harris. However, I think Overeem is a better striker, better on the ground, and has a lot more power. Volkov will more than likely try to stay on the outside and overwhelm Overeem with Volume, but eventually, Reem will close the distance and get inside, and in the clinch, Reem is extremely dangerous. Wherever the fight takes place, either on the ground or on the feet, Overeem is the better mixed martial artist. 

Best of luck this weekend with your lineups, and enjoy the fights!