We are back after a brief hiatus…had a lot going on last week and honestly, I just didn’t have a good feel for last weekend’s card in Moscow. The UFC heads to Sao Paulo, Brazil this Saturday as Renaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza takes on Jan Blachowicz in a light-heavyweight tilt in the main event. It will be Jacare’s first fight at 205, so it will be interesting what kind of performance we get out of him. There are some solid fights on the card and some decent salaries. Let’s take a look…

Main Event

The big question in this one; will the result of Jacare moving up to 205 mirror the outcome of Chris Weidman and Luke Rockhold’s debuts at 205.

No….Jacare still has a chin, but his performance against Hermansson was troubling as he could get the fight to the ground and when it did it was Hermansson taking the fight there and the Swede ending up in Jacare’s guard. I just don’t know what to expect here, but I am leaning towards a Blachowicz win. I’ll probably be 60/40 on this fight with more on Blachowicz, but if Jacare can get this fight to the ground then it could go his way. Basically a tossup in my opinion.

Chalk

Charles Oliveira $9400 – Chucky Olives is on quite a run, winning 5 straight all coming inside the distance and averaging 100.6 fpts per fight in that span. His opponent, Jared Gordon is 3-2 in the UFC and all his wins are against low-level competition. Oliveira’s game has really evolved since he entered the UFC, as his striking has improved which makes him such a dangerous opponent with the fact that his Jiu-Jitsu game is extremely high level. Oliveira will be highly owned, but I do see him paying off the price tag. Gordon is just simply overmatched here.

Mid-Tier

Randy Brown $7900 – Technically Brown should be in the dog category but to be honest there is not a fighter I really like in the 8k range, but I do like Randy Brown at $7900. If we get the Randy Brown that showed up against Bryan Barbarena back in June, then Brown could score well in this fight. His opponent Warley Alves is coming off a nice win, but he struggles against longer fighters. Brown will have a 6” reach advantage, and should Alves get into a striking battle with Brown he will lose. I really like the form that Brown is in, and I’ll take him here.

Dog

Wellington Turman $7600 – Turman had a very respectable UFC debut even in a losing effort against Karl Roberson scoring 53 fpts. Markus Perez opened a very large favorite which totally baffles me, because his striking isn’t great but his ground game, especially on top is good. Perez’s fight IQ isn’t the best either, and while Turman had some low points on the ground against Roberson, I think he can hold his own there against Perez, and on the feet this isn’t even close as Turman is by far the more technical striker. It wouldn’t shock me if Turman gets a knockout here.

Other fighters I’m targeting

Shogun Rua $9200 – His fight against Craig should be fun but I think Shogun gets the TKO win.Eduardo Garagorri $7000 – Garagorri should not be this big of an underdog, wouldn’t be shocked he gets a split decision win.