UFC Philadelphia MMA DFS Analysis

Well after a rough go of things in London, we bounced back nicely at UFC Nashville. Blaydes was dominant, and we thought Pettis was a very live dog, and he was. Jussier Formiga put on a clinic, and Jordan Espinoza got the win as well, although he didn’t accrue the fantasy points I thought he’d get. The only real disappointment was Bobby Moffett, who somehow lost a unanimous decision despite landing 5 takedowns, certainly quite the head scratcher. So on to UFC Philadelphia, as the main event is pure violence. Let’s see if we can get a nice payout this week. I am short on time this week so I’ll be somewhat brief.

Chalk 

Ray Borg $9400 – I will have minimal ownership of Borg. He’s coming off a very long layoff, and he missed weight. Not ideal…he is facing the LFA double champion Casey Kenney, who just fought LAST WEEK! Borg should be able to handle business here, but I won’t be too invested. I’ll put Kenney in a lineup just because that’s what I do (ya never know).

Desmond Green $9300 – Hasn’t scored more than 68.5 fpts in 5 UFC appearances. No thanks.

Alex Perez $9200 – I like Perez a lot. He’s far superior to De La Rosa everywhere, I think he gets a finish.

Kennedy Nzechukwu $9000 – Man the line on this is crazy…pretty inexperienced guy going against Paul Craig…I’ll have minimal exposure, he’s just not proven enough, and if Craig gets this to the mat he holds the grappling advantage, could be interesting.

Mid-Tier

Kevin Holland $8900 – Holland is an athletic dude, and while some might say his opponent Meerschart is a live dog, I tend to disagree. Holland is a finisher, and should he get meerschartdown I think it’ll be over. Meerschart has a respectable submission game but Holland is really slick and tricky with his submissions. Holland also has a tremendous speed advantage. Holland finishes him in round 2

Split Ownership

Barboza / Gaethje – I don’t think this needs any explanation if you watch the UFC on a somewhat regular basis. The winner is getting a finish. I’ll have more Barboza, but I’ll have some Gaethje too.

Emmett / Johnson – This is a toss-up. I favor Emmett due to his wrestling, but I’ll have some Johnson too. Someone is getting finished here.

Moraes / Yusuff – I’ll have more of Yusuff because I think he’s the more talented guy but this is a step up in competition, but Moraes can’t be overlooked.

Underdogs

David Branch $7900 – Many are picking Hermansson here, and I get it. However, just like last week with Curtis Blaydes, we have some recency bias. Branch is coming off a brutal TKO loss to Jared Cannonier. He got caught…that’s it, and he did gas. But let’s be honest, Branch is the bigger stronger guy, the better technical striker, and the grappling advantage, do we need to go there? Ok. That is all.

Michelle Waterson $7600 – I hate to go against Karolina here, but I think Waterson is a really bad matchup for her. Waterson is a lot more dynamic when it comes to striking and the speed advantage that Waterson can’t be ignored. Waterson has shown a lot of improvements in her game while Karolina has been somewhat stagnant. 

Paul Craig $7200 – Craig is in danger of being cut from the UFC, if he can take Nzechukwu into the deep waters I could see him getting the W.