The UFC is at the Apex once again for UFC on ESPN 11 this weekend. It’s an interesting card for sure, so let’s take a look at some fighters to target.
Curtis Blaydes $9400 – Blaydes will be the most popular fighter on the slate, and I see him totally dominating Alexander Volkov. They are at the UFC Apex once again, which means a smaller cage and that will be a huge advantage for Blaydes. Blaydes’ speed, athleticism, wrestling, and brutal ground and pound will bee too much for the Russian. It doesn’t take much to break this down, Volkov’s reach will not be a factor. Blaydes will roll here.
Max Rohskopf $8400 – Rohskopf is one of the UFC’s top prospects with a wrestling background coming out of NC State. The young prospect out of Zenith MMA has a 5-0 record, all by submission. His grappling is insane and he mixes his wrestling in with his Jiu-Jitsu extremely well. I won’t be all in on Rohskopf, but I’ll have a good bit of him in my lineups as his opponent Austin Hubbard will be overmatched when it goes to the ground. Make no mistake, it will go to the ground.
Gillian Robertson $8300 – I’m pretty surprised at the betting line here, which is basically a pick-em. Look Casey beat a Maria Romero-Borella last time out and let’s face it MRB is pretty much done. Robertson was on a nice little run until she ran into Maycee Barber her last time out. Robertson is a slick grappler and has numerous finishes on her resume. Casey’s grappling is subpar and these fighters will be in the clinch and it will eventually get to the ground here. Casey may be the better striker but she gets hit a lot, unlike Robertson. I think Robertson has multiple paths to victory here, and I think submission is a good possibility.
There are 3 dogs that I’ll be mixing and matching into my lineups, all three of them have legit paths to victory. First off, we have Lauren Murphy at $7200. Lauren has won two in a row, and the only reason that Modafferi is the favorite is because of her victory over Maycee Barber, call it a fluke or whatever but Barber’s knee what injured early and the fight was all Modafferi. Murphy is tough as nails and as long as she can keep this on the feet it’s a winnable fight. Murphy also has two wins via KO/TKO, so don’t be surprised.
Next is Tecia Torres at $7200. Torres has lost 4 in a row, all to top-ranked fighters like Weili Zhang and Joanna Jędrzejczyk to name a few. Now she’s a huge underdog to Brianna Van Buren, which is absolutely insane. Will Tecia get a knockout? Probably not, but she provides a lot of salary relief in a fight that should be lined at a pick-em if anything. Torres is still a respectable fighter with solid striking and she definitely has a shot to win a decision.
The next dog is Clay Guida at $7100. This is another line that is out of whack. Bobby Green is currently a -200 favorite and Guida can win strictly by using his unorthodox striking with feints and mixing it up with his wrestling. Guida definitely has the cardio advantage too. I always say if you’re gonna pick a dog, pick a guy that will fight for your money. Guida is surely in the twilight of his career, but he’s being disrespected by the oddsmakers here. I’ll take him at a low price.
I’ll also have Marion Reneau ($7400) in at least one lineup. If anyone on this card is capable of pulling off a surprise submission, it’s the seasoned vet Reneau.
This card is gonna be a wild one, good luck and enjoy the fights!