UFC London DFS Analysis

Well last week it didn’t turn out as good as the previous week, but somehow I cashed in some GPP’s and tournaments. I honestly didn’t bother looking after a while and at the end of the event I was shocked at the result. I wasn’t heavily invested in the card so I was happy with the outcome. This Saturday we have a jam packed card from the O2 Arena in London as Darren Till takes on Jorge Masvidal. There are plenty of closely lined fights and there are quite a few live dogs which could make for interesting event from a DFS perspective.

Chalk

Nathaniel Wood $9400 – I really like Wood here, super well-rounded guy and this fight is pretty much set up for him to roll. He should finish this fight in the 1st or 2nd with a couple of takedowns. I see wood scoring 100+ in this spot.

Dominick Reyes $9300 – I’ll have Dom in a lineup or two, and I think he’ll be heavily owned. This is a really big step up in competition, and I think Volkan can definitely outpoint him here. Buyer beware.

Darren Till $9200– I honestly don’t see myself having much of Till in my lineups. Now we know that Till exudes confidence 100% of the time when doing interviews and stuff, but he’s coming off a devastating loss. I don’t care who you are, your confidence is going to take a hit. Secondly he’s going against a guy that is severely underrated. If Till wins I see it going to a decision. Keep in mind when he was in the main event against Thompson back in May of 2018, he only scored 59 points. From a betting perspective I really like Masvidal, but it’s in England and Masvidal seems to always be on the short end of close decisions. 

Split Ownership

Arnold Allen / Jordan Rinaldi – I can see a path to victory for both of these guys. I can see Rinaldi ($7500) taking Allen ($8700) down continuously, and I can see Arnold Allen possibly getting a sub. Arnold is the better all-around guy but Rinaldi definitely has a shot here. I’ll have both of these guys in lineups.

Claudio Silva / Danny Roberts – In 3 of the 4 UFC wins by Roberts, he’s scored 92 or above. Silva is a guy we know who’s gameplan is simple, get it down to the mat and submit you. I can see this going either Roberts by TKO or Silva by Sub. I don’t see this going to a decision, and I’ll have both guys in my lineup. One thing to keep in mind Roberts is in his home country, and should it go to a decision he could get the nod. 

Mid-Tier

Nad Narimani $8900 – Judging by the way the line has moved, Narimani’s opponent will be a popular underdog. I personally think Narimani rolls here, and I’ll have him in quite a few lineups. Keep in mind that his opponent, Mike Grundy is making his Octagon debut, those Octagon jitters will more than likely come into play.

Underdogs

Danny Henry $8000 – The Scottish fighter is 2-0 in the UFC, and in his last fight he made quick work of Hakeem Dawodu. Henry opened up the favorite and is now the underdog which is fine by me. Henry has won as a sizeable underdog in both is UFC appearances. Dan Ige definiely has the wrestling advantage, but there are issues with his cardio and I do think Henry has the clear advantage on the feet. Ige is tough, but I like Henry with the UK crowd behind him and I think that he forces a pace that Ige can’t match.

Gunnar Nelson $7900 – Gunni will be a popular underdog, and for good reason. Nelson has a significant advantage on the ground, and while some say the bigger Edwards has a advantage on the feet, Nelson is pretty dangerous as well. People want to bring up the loss to Ponzinibbio, but that was a blatant eye poke, and I honestly don’t even factor that in. I truly think that had there not been an eye poke, Gunnni would have taken that fight. If Nelson can get this to the mat, he could finish it early.

Ian Heinisch $7800 – Ahh the beauty of Draft Kings. Heinischwas at one point +140 and now is -105, but his price on Draft Kings stays the same. I do think that he’ll be a popular dog, and I think he presents a lot of problems for Tom Breese…I can see Heinisch really overpowering Tom Breese on the feet and on the mat. Don’t get me wrong Breese is technically the better striker, but I think Heinisch will be pushing the pace and controlling the fight.

John Phillips $7400 – I don’t think this fight goes past the second round. Phillips has been submitted in his first 2 UFC appearances, but I don’t see Marshman doing that. Marshman has wins over Ryan Janes and Magnus Cedenblad (who is no longer in the UFC). Phillips is definitely live.

Volkan Oezdemir $6900 – I have no clue what the ownership will be here, but as mentioned before this is a huge step up in competition for Reyes. Oezdemir had a quick climb to a title shot, but is now coming off consecutive losses. No shame in losing to Cormier and he had his moments against Smith. The hype of Dominick Reyes has made some blind to how good Volkan is. Don’t be surprised if “No Time” gets his hand raised.