UFC 274 DFS Analysis

Fifteen fights on the card Saturday night, two belts on the line; let’s get down to business!

Chalk

Just a few weeks ago, we had Andre Fialho ($9500) as a lovely dog, and he delivered with a 1st round knockout of Miguel Baeza, scoring 112.9 fpts. Fialho will be taking on Cameron VanCamp, making his UFC debut. VanCamp is 15-5 with nine submissions, and 4 TKO’s on his resume. He is riding a 4-fight win streak, but the competition he’s faced during that win streak is not too impressive, with a combined record of 37-29. VanCamp has fought only one guy with UFC experience, which he lost to Austin Hubbard back in 2017. Fialho’s pressure and power is really good, and he’s a finisher. He won’t be in every lineup, but he’ll be in most of them. 

Others to consider: Brandon Royval – very capable of getting a 1st round sub.

Main Event / Co-main

I will have either Charles Oliveira or Justin Gaethje in 80% of my lineups and will most likely be 50/50. I’m pretty confident that the winner of this fight will be in the optimal lineup; both fighters are capable of ending this early. If this fight goes past round 3, it favors Oliveira as I’m sure he’ll eventually get this fight to the mat, and while he may not be able to get a submission, he will score well with control time. I am projecting the winner of this fight scores more than 112 fpts.

As far as the co-main, I think the potential for Rose Namajunas to score well is there. I’m not even considering their first fight because Rose is a completely different fighter now. We know what Esparza wants to do; it’s getting the fight to the mat. I think Rose’s takedown defense is good enough to where she can just keep the fight on the feet and win on volume. On the feet, it’s a complete mismatch, and while Carla Esparza’s wrestling credentials can’t be ignored, Rose’s jiu-jitsu can’t be overlooked either. I’ll have Rose in a few lineups and Carla in one or two. I favor Namajunas to get it done via decision or late stoppage.

Split Ownership

Lauzon/Cerrone – Interesting matchup here. Lauzon is a fast starter, while Cerrone is a slow starter. Lauzon could end this early, while it favors Cerrone if it goes into the second round. This fight is super interesting, and I don’t think it’s going past the second round. Lauzon at $7400 is a sneaky play, while Cerrone at $8800 is risky but could reap huge benefits. 

Dogs

Melissa Gatto $7500 – I think Gatto is the better all-around fighter here. Cortez hasn’t exactly blown me away with her recent performances, and Gatto is solid. Cortez’s threat with the takedowns is there, but Gatto is crafty off her back with reversals, sweeps, and solid Brazilian jiu-jitsu credentials. Gatto is a finisher, Cortez is not. I just think the upside for Gatto is pretty apparent here.

Randy Brown $7900 – I like what I’ve seen out of Brown recently. It seems like he’s getting better every time I see him. Khaos Williams’s power is a little scary as Brown’s chin has been suspect in the past, but I like Brown here.

Tony Ferguson $6600 – It’s crazy to think that Tony Ferguson, who once won 12 in a row, is now the lowest-priced fighter on the card. I think Ferguson is a sneaky GPP play. I don’t think he’s getting finished, and he will land on Chandler. Even in a losing effort, Ferguson could still score well, and at this salary, it frees up so much money to get to fighters at a higher price point.

Best of luck, and enjoy the fights!