It’s been a pretty rough month or so, completely whiffed on the last card. As a result, MMA betting and DFS has been up and down this year for many, including me. UFC 264 takes place this Saturday from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The trilogy fight between Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier headlines the card. To say the least, there are quite a few interesting fights; let’s take a look at some fighters to target.

Chalk

Sean O’Malley $9500 – I am not the biggest fan of O’Malley, and I hate taking the highest-priced fighter, but O’Malley should win this fight easily. Kris Moutinho is a guy that fought in the CES MMA promotion out of New England and is 2-2. Moutinho is a tough kid, but O’Malley’s size and length will be too much to overcome. 

Ilia Topuria $9100 – In my opinion, Topuria is one of the top prospects in the UFC. Great grappler, solid striking, and knockout power. This is a very dangerous matchup with Ryan Hall, but I think Topuria’s wrestling and grappling are enough to compete with Hall on the ground, and one would think that Topuria wants this fight standing. Although not many want to fight Hall, Topuria accepted the fight, and that should tell you about his confidence in his ground skills. Topuria should get a finish here.

Mid-Tier

Michel Pereira $8900 – Pereira has turned it around, and I believe he multiple paths to victory against a very durable Niko Price. Price has some spectacular finishes in his own right, but I think the amount of damage he has taken in the past two fights can’t be ignored. Pereira is too explosive, and I believe he will overwhelm Price here.

Dricus Du Plessis $8200 – Du Plessis had an impressive debut in his win over Markus Perez, and I think he’s more technical on the feet than Giles by a wide margin. Giles has been on a nice little run lately, but I think he’s in for it against Du Plessis. Du Plessis is 15-2, with all of his wins ending inside the distance. At this price, I’ll gladly take the guy that has a habit of finishing fights.

Split Ownership

McGregor/Poirier – Both fighters are priced at $8100. It could go either way but favor Poirier, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a motivated McGregor employ an intelligent gameplan and break down Poirier. Ever since McGregor got paid, I think we can all agree he hasn’t been the same. Remember that McGregor is only 1-3 as a lightweight…think about that…ONE AND THREE!!!!!! I’ll have mostly Poirier but will have Conor in a few lineups as well.

DogsThere is not one fighter below 8k that I am all in on. Yana Kunitskaya might be a live dog if she can land takedowns and keep the fight on the ground. Greg Hardy, I am hesitant about because of the progress I’ve seen from Tai Tuivasa, but Hardy has the power to end a fight quickly. I think Gilbert Burns is in for a long night, and I don’t see him having much success against the puzzle that is Stephen Thompson. Omari Akhmedov could succeed if he employs a wrestle-heavy gameplan, but his cardio is suspect at times. Although there’s a lot of risk to all the fighters below 8k, Kunitskaya, Akhmedov, and Hardy may be worth a stab, in my opinion.