Chalk

Curtis Blaydes $9400 – I like Blaydes a lot and even though he’ll be highly owned I think he’ll be in the winning lineup. Blaydes is a smart fighter and I can see him getting multiple takedowns and eventually getting the ground and pound finish. I can see him breaking 100 fpts.

Khabib Nurmagomedov $9300 – I  don’t see an early stoppage here, but I can see Khabib getting multiple takedowns and putting forth a really good performance. I like the fact that his father is in Abu Dhabi for this fight, and I think that’s even more positive for the champion. Khabib has averaged 123.6 fpts in his last 5 fights, and although I respect Poirier a lot I think we see a solid performance from Nurmagomedov.

Mid-Tier

Don Madge $8700 – Madge made one hell of a UFC debut and I can see him really putting it on Faras Ziem, who may be in over his head here. Madge is good off his back if he gets taken down but on the feet I think he holds a clear advantage. I like Madge getting the TKO here.

Liana Jojua $8400 – Jojua will be making her UFC debut against Sarah Moras. In 4 of her last 5 fights she’s won via submission. She’s an outstanding grappler but she’s not that great on the feet. This is going to the mat and I think the UFC really is setting her up to win as the women’s bantamweight division is not the deepest division. She’s not well known and I think she’ll be a tad overlooked.

Dogs

Carlos Diego Ferriera $7200 – I think CDF is being serioulsy disrespected as the betting line is way out of whack. Granted, Mairbeck Taisumov is an excellent striker, but his last performance didn’t necessarily blow me away. Ferriera is a really good all around fighter and if he can weather the early storm and take this fight to the deep waters it’s a winnable fight. I think he’s a really good bargain for $7200.

Davi Ramos $7200 – Ramos only has one loss in the UFC was to Sérgio Moraes and that fight was short notice. Islam Makhachev is a really good fighter, and he has the advantage on the feet, but this fight is going to the mat and I understand that makhachev trains with Khabib, but Ramos is an ELITE grappler, like ADCC champion elite. Makhachev hasn’t fought a grappler like Ramos, and Davi defininitely has a path to victory. I’ll take the live dog here.