Welcome back once again for another weekly PGA DFS preview with @DFSduncan. We’ve finally made it! Masters week is upon us. The entire industry has been pumping out content already and it’s evident from what I’ve seen on Twitter that everyone is just as excited about this week as I am. Corey Conners gained the last spot in the field after winning the Valero Texas Open. He was a Monday qualifier for the event and just the fifth person in history to win a PGA tour event after going through the Monday qualifying round. He will be welcomed to Augusta National along with 86 others this week for the year’s first major.
Course Preview and Key Stats
Augusta National is a par 72 that will play just shy of 7,500 yards. The course has wider than average fairways and the rough is known for not being very penal to golfers who miss the fairway. If tee shots do not end up being blocked by trees golfers will still be able to attack greens throughout the course. This will give bombers an advantage if the winds are not wreaking havoc on the course. The par 5’s all play well under par and golfers will need to take advantage of these scoring opportunities. Where the difficulty at August lies is in its extremely fast and undulating greens. Holes can vary in difficulty by day based simply upon where the pin is placed. There will be small areas on the green that golfers will need to land their shots in order to have any chance at birdie. Simply reaching the green in regulation is no guarantee for a par as the undulations can bring 3 putts into play on many holes. With all that being said here are the key stats I’ll be looking at this week:
- SG: OTT
- SG: Approach
- Par 5 Scoring
- 3 putt avoidance
- Scrambling Gained
- Birdie or Better Gained
- Bogey Avoidance
Dustin Johnson ($11,300)
DJ is my top play of the week. He comes into the week on the heels of 4 consecutive top 10’s in which he gained strokes in nearly every metric. He has top 10 finishes in his last 3 starts at Augusta, and while this is somewhat narrative based, I’m sure it bothers him that only 1 of his 20 career wins is a major championship. He’s as long as anyone off the tee and has an elite approach game to go along with a very solid short game. I think he’ll garner a bit less ownership than Rory which is why I’ll be rostering him a bit more than McIlroy.
Justin Rose ($10,800)
Rose could fly a bit under the radar in this range. I think a majority of people will want to roster Rory and Tiger up here which leaves some ownership leverage for guys like Rose. Rose ranks 10thin my model over his last 24 rounds. He has a win already this year coming at Torrey Pines and he’s gained strokes both off the tee and approach in each of his last 3 events. Couple that with the fact that his worst finish over the last 5 years at Augusta was a T14 and you have another very strong play.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,200)
Fleetwood has been knocking on the door for his first PGA win all season. His last 3 starts have all been top 20’s and his last 2 were top 5’s. He’s been elite off the tee and with his approach all season, gaining over 21 strokes T2G in his last 2 starts combined. This week at Augusta could be his big breakthrough in the US.
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,700)
There might not be a better T2G player right now in this field than Hideki. He’s gained at least 6 strokes T2G in his last 6 strokes. 3 of those were top 10’s and his worst finish in that period was a 33rdplace at Bay Hill in which he lost 8.3(!) strokes putting. If his flat stick is even decent this week he’ll be in contention.
Matt Kuchar ($7,900)
You’d be hard pressed to find someone more consistent than Kuchar this year. He ranks 4thin my model over his last 24 rounds and is a ridiculous value at this price point. He’ll fit into all kinds of builds which is why he will be as chalky as anyone in the field. He’s gained on approach in all his starts this year and I’ll be rostering him quite a bit this week. I think he’s good chalk and I’ll differentiate elsewhere.
Henrik Stenson ($7,600)
Stenson’s iron play ahs been on fire lately. He’s gained at least 2.5 strokes on approach in each of his last 3 events and he made it out of group play in what many thought was the group of death at the match play. He had his best finish ever at a Augusta last year with a T5 so he might finally be figuring out the course. I think he’ll fly a bit under the radar as the finishes haven’t been there this year, but he’s a strong GPP play.
Charley Hoffman ($6,800)
Hoffman is coming into the Masters with strong play in his most recent 2 events after a rough start to 2019. He finished 2ndand 18thin his last 2 starts after missing his previous 3 cuts. He’s been putting well and using a strong approach game to turn his season around. He has great course history at Augusta finishing no worse than 29thin each of the last 4 years.
Kevin Kisner ($6,700)
Kisner comes into the event in strong form. He won the WGC match play and had finished no worse than 28thin his 6 events prior. He’s made the cut at Augusta the last 3 years and while he isn’t as long as off the tee as most of the field his strong putting and approach game should allow him to make the weekend and maybe contend come Sunday.
This brings us to the end of my Draftkings preview for the Masters. Keep in mind when building lineups this week that 6/6 will not be a guaranteed cash due to the smaller field and weak players at the bottom with little to no chance to make the cut. You want to have 6 guys in all of your lineups with a legitimate chance to at least finish top 20. As always feel free to reach out to me on twitter @DFSduncan. You can also find me in the Fantasy Sports Degenerates slack chat.