Let’s start off by recapping last week like we always do. I’ll start with the bad again. Well I’m very excited to write that there was almost no bad at all last week. We had 2 of the top 9 DK scorers come from the below rubies and they were both under 13% owned. That my friends, is what we call the nuts. A week before at the Genesis we had a lot of bad. This week it was all great. EVER finished 2nd in DK scoring last week. He was a monster and we were on him. Munoz went way under the radar for how well he performed. He finished 9th in DK scoring last week. Ortiz rebounded extremely well after a rough start to actually perform extremely well by the end of the week. When Justin Thomas was on the tee at #10, I was leading the $200 SE with these 3 rubies in my lineup. The double by JT changed that but that’s neither here nor there. Lorenzo-Vera was not good on the other hand so the coal call was very good as well. 

Let’s get this week going!

Ruby #1: Tom Hoge ($6900)– Hoge has been in the rubies once this year and it was very successful. Last 24 rounds in my model Hoge ranks 4th, and 5th in the last 25 rounds. He has made 5 consecutive cuts. He has top 25 finishes in 4 of the past 5 events he has played with 2 of those being top 10s. Hoge ranks near the top in Par 3 scoring which I believe can prove important this week because there is a significant amount of trouble on the Par 3s at PGA National. Hoge putts best on bermuda, which is the grass being played on this week. He lost strokes on approach at Pebble Beach but had gained on approach the previous 5 tournaments. Hoge is a great FRL bet also for his price. Hoge has missed 2/3 cuts at this event in the past but does have a 37th place finish in 2016 here. 

Ruby #2: Chesson Hadley ($6800)– I know this one is going to make a lot of people sick and most people will avoid Chesson. I don’t blame you. I feel like he’s the king of the double bogey. He ranks near the bottom of the field in bogey avoidance. The last 24 rounds he ranks #1 in birdie or better gained. Translation for me is he is going to bogey and bogey big but if he makes the cut he is going to score and score a lot. He’s going to fire at pins because that is what he does.  #12 last 24 rounds in Tee to Green. Those stats aren’t all that impressed me. He has a decent history at the Honda. He finished 20th in 2019, 21st in 2016, and 24th in 2014. MC the other 3 times here. He has a 50% chance at making the cut in my opinion, but if he makes the cut I like his chances of racking up draft kings points. Play at your own risk with him, but if you do my recommendation is don’t watch his rounds because you will be throwing controllers through the TV because it will be a roller coaster. 

Ruby #3 Stewie Cink ($6700)– Cink wont pop off the board in the models. Reminds me of when Harrington won here at 300-1 a couple years back. Older vet who is good with irons and got hot for that week. Avoided the trouble and came home with the title. Cink will play smart there is no question about that. He’s much too experienced to not play smart. He ranks 26th in my model last 12 rounds. He’s been playing pretty decent. HE has made 5 of his last 6 cuts. He gained over 4 strokes tee to green at Pebble beach. Cink is 8/8 making the cut here. He will make the cut so put him in your lineup. 

Coal: Denny Mccarthy ($7100)– Yes we know Mccarthy is a great putter. He gained 10.9 strokes putting at the Genesis. Yeah that’s not happening again. He lost 8.9 strokes tee to green. He has lost at least 2 strokes tee to green in each of the last 4 tournaments he has played. He is not hitting the ball well at all. He has lost off the tee un 4 of the last 5 and same with approach. So he is being saved by his putter. There is so much trouble at this course that the putter won’t save you if you are off with irons or off the tee. He has missed the cut each time he has played here. 

Good Luck this week!