This is my favorite tournament of the year. Yes, that includes majors. I absolutely love this tournament and the venue. It helps that I will be on site starting on Friday all the way through Sunday. It truly is an amazing event and I couldn’t be more excited.
Let’s start off by recapping last week like we always do. Watney was very good call. He faded on Sunday a little but 29th will do for his price. Doc Redman also made the cut and finished 29th as well. So those both were solid plays. Jimmy Walker let the clean sweep down by 1 stroke missing the cut on the number. Would have been cool to get all 3 through but is what it is. Just as expected, Trahan was highly owned for his range and I don’t think he returned much value. He finished 68th so he did make the cut but did little with it.
Let’s get this week going!
Ruby #1: Chesson Hadley ($6600): Most everyone is going to look at this and say WOOF! I did initially as well. It’s a scary dive but one I am willing to do. Chesson did miss the cut here last year. He had a very down year last year in general. I feel he is rejuvenated this year and really wants to keep his card. A 23rd placing here in 2018 and a made cut in 2016 shows he has experience. He has gained on approach in every tournament this year that calculates it going back to the Safeway Open. He’s hitting the ball well that’s for sure. He gained 4 strokes putting at Amex, so some will get turned off by that but he can be a streaky hot putter. He ranks 25th in my model last 24 rounds, 9th last 12, 22nd last 8 and 13th last 4. He has been playing some good golf consistently so I’m plugging my nose and riding the wave.
Ruby #2: Tom Hoge ($6900): Well here is another scary one but let’s get it! Coming off back to back top 12 finishes at Sony and Amex Hoge comes into the Farmers in obvious good form. He finished 12th here last year while losing 4.3 strokes putting. Hoge can keep it in the fairway and stay out of the thick rough. The rough here is no joke. I saw a professional player last year hit a ball 3 yards out of the rough on hole 1. Keeping it in the fairway is a major advantage. There shouldn’t be any weather elements to contend with this week so should make for some good scoring chances. Last 24 rounds Hoge ranks 14th. Last 12 he ranks 24th and last 8 he ranks 5th. He is striping the ball right now. This is a step up in class, but I’m still riding the hot playing wave.
Ruby #3: Pat Perez ($7000): This could be a heart pick, but I love Pat Perez this week. Flat bill is back in his hometown. His dad is the starter for the tournament. He knows the course better than anyone not named Tiger. His form has been coming around as well. Made the cut at the Sony while losing almost 3 strokes putting. HE should putt better this week on a more comfortable course for him. He has made the last 5 cuts with 2 top 10s in the span. He has a 4th place finish here in 2017 and a 2nd place finish in 2014. He likes it here plain and simple. Give me my guy and when he wins I’m staying an extra day to party with him on Sunday night!!!!
Coal: Sepp Straka ($6900)– Straka has a good showing here in the past. The past being last year. Straka is not a good putter and has gained putting last 3 weeks. Historically his worst surface for putting is POA, which we have this week. At over 10% projected ownership, no thanks for that. Straka is good OTT but is inconsistent in most other categories. I can’t play the ownership in this one so it’s strictly going to be an ownership fade.