Matt Bishop | September 8, 2019
Welcome to Week 1. The moment we’ve all been waiting for is finally here. Here are a few quick DFS plays for today. I will do more next week as my daughter had my laptop this morning and wouldn’t let me have it. Good luck and god speed:
FPPG: Fantasy Points Per Game
Kirk Cousins, QB MIN ($5,500 DraftKings)
- ATL DST allowed 21.2 FPPG to opposing QBs in 2018 (1st in NFL)
- ATL 25th ranked defense (74.0 Grade) in 2018
- ATL 20th ranked pass coverage (74.3 Grade) in 2018
- ATL 24th ranked pass rush coming into 2019
- ATL 16th ranked secondary coming into 2019
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line was a heaping pile of garbage last season, allowing 226 total pressures last season, which was the most in football. And while Cousins was pressured on 38.9% of his dropbacks, which was the 2nd most in the league (Deshaun Watson 44.7%), he responded with an 83.1% passer rating while under pressure, which was the 4th best mark in the league while under pressure. The Vikings come into 2019 as the 25th ranked O Line in football with upside. Imagine what a little time could do for Captain Kirk.
Kerryon Johnson, RB DET ($5,800 DraftKings):
- ARZ DST allowed 25.7 fantasy PPG to opposing RBs in 2018 (1st in NFL)
- ARZ 28th Ranked Run DEF (68.5 Grade) in 2018
- ARZ 30th Ranked Run DEF coming into 2019
- DET 12th ranked in run blocking (59.9 Grade) in 2018
- DET 15th ranked OL coming into 2019
The Arizona Cardinals allowed 100+ rush yards in 14 games in 2018. This matchup seems right and one that could make you feel smart, while not eating up your salary cap at the running back spot. This Lions offensive line has veteran leadership and the potential to be a Top 5 group when healthy.
Mark Ingram, RB BAL ($5,100 DraftKings):
- MIA DST allowed 22.7 FPPG to opposing RBs in 2018 (4th most in NFL)
- MIA 20th ranked run DEF (80.9 Grade) in 2018
- MIA 29th ranked run DEF coming into 2019
- BAL 10th ranked in run blocking (62.6 Grade) in 2018
- BAL 11th ranked OL coming into 2019
The Miami Dolphins allowed 100+ rush yards in 13 games in 2018. We don’t know how Mark Ingram will fare with a full time workload or without Kamara as a compliment. But we do know the Ravens offensive line is good and the run volume will be a plenty, as they ranked 3rd last season in run percentage (47.7%). Ingram should feast in this contest.
Peyton Barber, RB TB ($4,000 DraftKings):
- SF DST allowed 20.2 Fantasy PPG to opposing RBs in 2018 (11th in NFL)
- SF 26th ranked run DEF (75.2 Grade) in 2018
- SF 32nd ranked run DEF coming into 2019
- SF allowed 10 games of 100+ yards in 2018
The San Francisco 49ers allowed 100+ rush yards in 10 games in 2018. While TB’s offensive line ranked 28th in run blocking last season, they come into the 2019 season as the 24th ranked offensive line in football. That may not instill confidence, but an upside running back play at $4k is hard to pass up.
Chris Godwin, WR TB ($6,200 DraftKings):
- SF 27.0 FPPG to opposing WRs in 2018 (4th in NFL)
- SF 32nd in pass coverage (37.5 Grade) in 2018
- SF 29th ranked secondary coming into 2019
Tampa Bay threw the ball 625 times last season, which was the 3rd most in the NFL and not much should change with Bruce Arians at the helm. But the question is can this offense support (2) explosive play makers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin? I think it can.
Tyler Boyd, WR CIN ($5,800 DraftKings):
- SEA allowed 22.8 FPPG to opposing WRs in 2018 (17th in NFL)
- SEA 14th in pass coverage (79.4 Grade) in 2018
- SEA 31st ranked secondary coming into 2019
The Legion of Boom is long gone and it could be a long season for this Seattle secondary. Tyler Boyd ran 73.2% of his snaps from the slot last season and was targeted on 20.5% of those snaps, which is the 9th best rate in the league. While A.J. Green will be inactive this week with an ankle injury, Boyd should lineup wide more in this contest, but look for the Bengals to use their best slot receiver in the slot as much as possible.