Track: Texas

Laps: 334

Dom Points: 250.50

Laps Led: 83.5

Fast Laps:167

We head to Texas for a 500 miler, hot grueling race.  This is our second 1.5 in a row so last week could be a barometer for this week.  As always, any data is the last 6 races unless specified, we will have qualifying this week so these notes are prequalifying, and you will need to be in the slack chat Sunday after for final analysis.  I will give 2-3 guys I like in each range and 2-3 I don’t since there is no practice data to use.  I will also provide some data on 1.5 milers since the NASCAR comeback.

10k and above

Faves:

Harvick (5): has won 3 of the last 6 races here, although they have all been in the fall. Has an average finish of 2.83 here in that span, and has led 498 laps and 318 fast laps, he has also been one of the most consistent cars since the return.

MTJ (10):  I like MTJ also he has the second-best avg on 1.5 since the return with a 6.60 avg finish and 65.65 Dk avg.  he started at the rear last week and drove to the front if not for some untimely cautions he would have won the race.

I also like Chase Elliott (8):  7.40 avg finish on 1.5 since the return.

8k-10k

Faves:

Christopher Bell (33): Finally priced down to a range I can play, has been getting better and better offers great upside.  Back to back top 8s and an average finish of 12.8 since the return that will pay off

Blaney (2): has been the best on 1.5 since the comeback and overall this season IMO.  Avg finish of 4 and 65.7-0 DK avg since the return.  Both tops in the series.  His worst finish on 1.5 since the comeback is 6th.

Aric Almirola (1):  Finally have to bite the bullet on Almirola, he passed Kyle straight up last week and led 128 laps has been solid on low wear tracks this year.  

Also Like JJ (20): solid on 1.5 since the return 10.80 avg finish

Fades:

Alex Bowman (12) been struggling since the return

Kyle Busch (4): He hasn’t been the same with no practice time he even mentioned it himself until he shows me he can put it together I will fade him.

6k-8k

Faves:

Tyler Reddick (24): Starting 24th and has been the best rookie since the comeback 10.6 avg finish and 46.95 DK points.  I will take that at his tag and ride the rookie. 

Austin Dillon (21):  I believe Reddick has woke up Dillon he has been driving well since the return on 1.5 milers.  Avg finish of 10.8 and worst finish is 15th at the coke 600.  I like the tag as a cheap option.

Fades:

Bubba Wallace (14):  avg finish of 27.4 on 1.5 since the comeback I will pass on the 14th starting spot.

Below 6k:

Don’t really like anyone in this range honestly since they finally priced McDowell at 6.6k, they honestly at this point are all fades for me maybe take a dart on JHN if needed.

Good luck this week, I feel really good about this week