Ok so I lied, I decided since this was such a small slate, that I would do an edition of Break’n Slates for my peeps out there! Hope all the Degens and all the Wolfpack had a nice holiday and even if you don’t celebrate, I hope you had a nice time with your families or just did what made you happy. This is what makes me happy. I cannot sit there and watch my friends not cash! We need the monies people!!! We need to Break some slates babyyyy!!!!!!
Also, for news, injury updates, and my personal gut feelings on who to play after this article is posted, Be sure to check me out on my Twitter handle.
Disclaimer: Remember people, I am not a professional, just an avid NBA fan who loves the sport and loves DFS. We are betting on human beings here which is probably the hardest thing to bet on. Some days we will win. Some days we will lose. I will never argue with any member of any community about who they want to play on any given night. However, if you would like my opinion on a particular player I will gladly help you any way that I can if you ask me. My slogan is “If you like him, play him”. It’s your money and I can’t spend it for you. If I don’t get back to you right away, it’s because I am just like you and work a full time job and I do this in my down time here. I promise to get back to you. Some players who are studs I may not mention in detail here in this article but will be displayed in the “Players I like but did not mention here” portion of the write up towards the end. All stats mentioned are accurate as of today and screenshots can be provided upon request. Credit: Fantasy Sports Degens,RotoWire, Fantasy Alarm, and DFS Wolfpack.
Favorite Plays on the Slate: (In no particular order) ( PG-C position)
Shabazz Napier (MIN) @ SAC ($3,300) or Jeff Teague (MIN) @ SAC ($5,500) PG/SG, PG
This is a great matchup for either guard. If Napier has beaten his illness which forced him to miss his last game, then he is a must start tonight against the Kings. If Napier is out with the same illness, then Jeff Teague is someone you will want to consider. Both have high upside and both are well priced tonight. I do not like Culver if he starts because he doesn’t come with the upside we need for our lineups. Keep an eye out on injury reports to see who will start in this game and if Napier starts, play him. If Culver starts, pivot to Teague. Either way, it’s a coin toss but you want to remain with the player who gives you the most upside and baby!!! Culver ain’t it! Oh and for the stat trolls out there, The Kings have given up the fifth most FPTs to opposing point guards in their past 5 games.
Donovan Mitchell (UTA) vs. POR ($8,100) PG/SG
Mitchell struggled against a great defensive Miami team on Monday, but tonight he gets a delicious matchup at home vs. the Blazers. Lillard is a below average defender and Mitchell has been carrying this Jazz team on his shoulders with Mike Conley out. This should be a closely contested game and before he struggled against Miami, Mitchell was averaging 43.0 FPTs per game over his last 5 games. I don’t love his price but on such a small slate and in a good matchup, it’s tough to fade an explosive player like Mitchell.
Ja Morant (MEM) @ OKC ($6,900) PG
Chris Paul is a solid defender but I can’t look past the fact that the Thunder are giving up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing point guards in their past 5 games. I also can’t look past the fact that Ja Morant is one of the best rookie point guards I’ve seen play in a few years. Morant has struggled in his past few games but tonight could be one of those nights that Morant balls out! He may even dunk over aquaman! Not to relive the past but the last time Morant played the Thunder, he posted 38.8 FPTs on them. I didn’t consider him then, I don’t want to make that same mistake twice.
Elfrid Payton (NY) @ BKN ($5,300) PG
I tried telling you Payton would be getting healthier and he would start producing! Tonight, Payton gets a plus matchup against a Nets team that is below average against opposing point guards. Payton has been a value in his past two games averaging 34.8 FPTs per game in that period. He has the potential tonight in what should be a higher paced game (Point Spread: 222) to produce for your lineups. Nice value play.
De’Aaron Fox (SAC) vs. MIN ($7,000) PG
Get him while his price is still low, Fox just dumped 52.25 FPTs on Houston Monday, and he has a high ceiling tonight against a banged up T-Wolves backcourt who rank 10th defensively against opposing point guards in their past 5 games. Fox is averaging 38.7 FPTs per game in his past 4 games and is a solid mid-tier point guard option to add to your lineups tonight.
Damian Lillard (POR) @ UTA ($8,500) PG
I don’t exactly love Dame’s price tonight but I’d be a fool not to mention him. Lillard is a better player at home which also makes me a bit nervous. However, Lillard is the type of player who can fly under the radar and produce a big night while being low owned. I don’t know if that’s the case tonight with a decent amount of value on this slate with point guards but he’s facing Mitchell tonight who is a shooter first and a defender second. I think there will be a good amount of scoring from Lillard and Mitchell tonight, I like Mitchell’s price better but Lillard wins in the upside department for me.
C.J. McCollum (POR) @ UTA ($6,600) PG/SG
If you don’t want to pay up for Lillard, his partner C.J. McCollum has an even tastier matchup in Utah tonight. McCollum is what I call a road warrior, on the year he’s averaging almost 5 fantasy points per game away from home on the year. Utah is the 3rd worst defensively against opposing shooting guards in their past 5 games and McCollum has been producing nicely in his past 5 games averaging 43.7 FPTs per game in that period. McCollum is one of my favorite shooting guards on this slate and I think he will be overlooked a ton. Excellent mid-tier option.
Joe Ingles (UTA) vs. POR ($6,200) SG/SF
Another solid play at shooting guard tonight is Joe Ingles. Since Conley has been out nursing a hamstring injury, Ingles has been a main benefactor and has been producing with the extra minutes he’s receiving on the floor. He’s averaging 34.6 FPTs per game over his past 4 games and he has a plus matchup at home vs. the Blazers tonight. He shoots a high percentage and if his shots fall, you’ll be headed to mount cashonia tonight baby!!!!
Svi Mykhailiuk (DET) vs. WAS ($3,700) SG/SF
Need a low priced player at shooting guard to stack studs on your team? Svi could be your man tonight against a weak defensive team like the Wizards. The Wizards are 8th worst defensively against opposing shooting guards in their past 5 and Svi did well with his extended run his previous game against the Sixers in Luke Kennard’s absence. Against the Sixers, he put up a respectable 23.5 FPTs and tonight if he gets the start again against the Wizards, he may even do better than his previous game. This is a punt play so there’s always some risk involved. Kennard has already been ruled out, so I’m assuming Svi gets another game with extended run albeit against a weaker opponent.
Andrew Wiggins (MIN) @ SAC ($7,800) SG/SF
Wiggins has been a little off lately but I can definitely see him bounce back tonight against a weak defensive backcourt like the Kings. The Kings rank in the bottom ten defensively against opposing shooting guards in their last 5 games. I love that Wiggins is now under 8k on DraftKings and I think he is a solid play tonight against the Kings. I can realistically see him getting 4 ½ to 5 times value tonight at his price.
Joe Harris (BKN) vs. NY ($5,700) SG/SF
Harris is another player who’s been up and down lately and most likely because Dinwiddie is a usage monster at 31.1% but tonight I think Harris has a nice matchup and if he drains some open shots and collect some rebounds and assists, I think he can be a very solid shooting guard for our lineups tonight. I like his price and his matchup against the Knicks.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC vs. MEM ($6,700) PG/SG
Dillon Brooks is a shooter, not a defender and SGA has been on an absolute tear his past three games averaging 44 FPTs per game in that period. I tried warning you guys to jump aboard the hype train with SGA, how many of you stayed at the station? He’s an excellent mid-tier option tonight at shooting guard.
Bradley Beal (WAS) @ DET ($9,900) SG
I don’t love his price and I’m willing to bet a lot of you don’t like his price either. The matchup is money though against a banged up Pistons’ backcourt. The Pistons backcourt is like a walking infirmary lately and Beal is the focal point of this Wizards offense. Beal is averaging 52.4 FPTs over his past four games. If Beal can get over 50 FPTs for us tonight which I think he can, then he will be worth the investment.
DeMar DeRozan (SA) @ DAL ($6,500) SG/SF
Ok class, Repeat after me! Can you say “Smash Spot”? Ok, let’s hear it one more time, “Smash Spot”!!! That’s the kind of matchup DeRozan has tonight against the Mavericks. The Mavs are the worst team defensively against opposing small forwards in their past 5 games. Not to mention, DeRozan is coming off a 51.25 FPT monster as the Spurs just blew the doors off the Grizzlies on Monday!! This matchup on paper is even easier and he’s under 7k!! His price actually dropped $300! Merry Xmas a day late for us people! Excellent mid-tier option at small forward for your lineups tonight!
Kristaps Porzingis (DAL) vs. SA ($8,300) PF/C
This pick could be mildly risky if Luka returns tonight, if he doesn’t then this is a must start. I’m not sure if Doncic will be on a minute restriction either. There are so many narratives to tonight’s game. Porzingis has shown flashes of his past self in his past 5 games averaging 51.0 FPTs per game. If Doncic is out, you should expect that type of performance in this matchup as well. Again, it’s a little risky but I have no problem if you like Porzingis tonight.
Julius Randle (NY) @ BKN ($6,800) PF/C
Randle has a great matchup against the Nets tonight. The Nets are in the bottom ten defensively against opposing power forwards. Randle has played better on the road this season by over a fantasy point and he’s coming off a 50.75 FPT performance against the Wizards. His price is good and he has potential to reach 5-6 times value against the Nets tonight.
Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM) @ OKC ($6,500) PF/C
The last time JJJR met OKC, he put up a stinker in only 16 minutes of action, his three point percentage was horrendous (25.0%) and he sat on the bench for the majority of the Grizzlies’ 126-122 loss to the Thunder. I don’t care about that and neither should you, the matchup is right and I’m sure JJJR will be looking for some redemption tonight! OKC are the 12th worst defensively against opposing power forwards in their past 5 games and JJJR has averaged 35.7 FPTs per game since he faced them. Look for him to bounce back tonight. Solid mid-tier option at power forward.
Steven Adams (OKC) vs. MEM ($6,400) Center
Adams is yet another player who has been peaks and valleys lately. He’s fresh off a 51.25 FPT performance against the Clippers and tonight he gets a matchup on the road vs. The Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are third worst in their past 5 games defensively against opposing centers and the last time Adams faced the Grizzlies he had 33.0 FPTs. If he can duplicate that production tonight or more, then you have a solid center in your lineups for small money. Solid mid-tier center option.
Mitchell Robinson (NY) @ BKN ($5,900) Center
This matchup is great on paper and it’s satisfying to see Robinson in the starting lineup over Gibson now that Mike Miller is the coach. The one thing that takes away from Robinson’s value is he fouls more than James Harden dribbles! If he stays out of foul trouble tonight, He has an excellent matchup in Brooklyn. I love attacking the Nets frontcourt and I like Robinson a lot tonight BUT only if he can stay out of foul trouble. He’s a volatile play with a nice matchup.
Andre Drummond (DET) vs. WAS ($10,000) Center
My favorite center on the slate as long as he doesn’t partake in some Tostitos and Guacamole before the game! Don’t rub your eyes with Guacamole on your fingers dude! Use a napkin! All jokes aside, The Wizards centers are all banged up and even when they’re not injured they still can’t stop Drummond. The last game Drummond played against the Wizards, he dropped 58 FPTs on them. Don’t overthink this one, if Dwayne Casey takes the Guacamole out of the locker room tonight, then Drummond is a must start and can be the centerpiece of your lineups tonight.
Jonas Valancunias (MEM) @ OKC ($6,100) Center
I also like Big Val a lot tonight in OKC. Adams and Val should have a nice battle at center tonight and I don’t even mind if you insert both in your lineups tonight because they are both pretty cheap. Val put up over 40 FPTs his last meeting with the Thunder and has a real chance to do the same tonight. If you stack both in your lineups tonight, there is a real possibility you could see 80 plus FPTs combined. Nice value tonight.
Richaun Holmes (SAC) vs. MIN ($5,800) PF/C
Bagley hasn’t hurt Holmes’ value like I thought it would. Holmes is firmly in place at the starting center position and has a plus matchup at home tonight against the Wolves. KAT is still not a lock to play and Holmes most likely will see a ton of Gorgui Dieng. I like Holmes even if KAT plays. His price is dirt cheap and in Holmes past three games he’s averaging 37.3 FPTs per game. I’m glad the Kings’ coach realizes his true value and so do we tonight! Bagley will be seeing a lot of Covington tonight opening up opportunities for Fox and Holmes against a depleted Wolves team. Great value play.
I’m fine with using Gobert or Whiteside tonight but I think there are better values out there at center.
Spencer Dinwiddie’s price is ridiculous ($8,700) but if you like him play him.
Troy Brown of the Wizards is in play at $6,200.
Ish Smith could be chalky but I’m fine with playing him at $6,100 with all the injuries to Detroit’s backcourt.
I’m not buying the Gary Payton hype just yet. I need to see more body of work.
I like Brandon Clarke at only $5,000 against the Thunder.
If Luka is out, Dorian Finney-Smith is a value against the Spurs at only $4,400 as he dropped 37.8 FPTs on the Spurs his last meeting. I just don’t like him as much if Luka returns.
As far as Doncic, I don’t feel comfortable spending over 11k for a player coming off an injury. You may and that’s fine but there is some value on this slate where you don’t need to spend up on a risky player like him tonight.
Royce O’Neale could be sneaky good tonight in a good matchup at only $4,300
Kevin Knox has been seeing over 20 minutes and could be a nice punt at $4,200 against a weak Nets front court.
Trevor Ariza has shown some flashes in his past 2 of 4 games and could be a nice punt at $4,000.
Admiral Schofield may be worth a look at $3,600 as he could be starting today for the Wizards. Pure punt play.
Trey Lyles is another punt whom is risky but he’s only $3,600 and just dropped 36.5 FPTs on the Grizzlies.
If you guys have any questions throughout the day just shoot me a message!
The Core 5: (These are my favorite players at every position tonight. These are not locks as I don’t believe in ever calling a player a lock. These are my favorite plays at every position and are not meant to be a method of an example lineup. The Core 5 has been a section I’ve received requests to do by our followers of the website and in the fb group I do the article for as well. Without further ado, here are my Core 5.
PG: De’Aaron Fox (SAC) vs. MIN ($7,000) PG
SG: C.J. McCollum (POR) @ UTA ($6,600) PG/SG
SF: DeMar DeRozan (SA) @ DAL ($6,500) SG/SF
PF: Julius Randle (NY) @ BKN ($6,800) PF/C
Center: Andre Drummond (DET) vs. WAS ($10,000) Center
Thank you all for reading !!! Break’n Slates returns for real this time, December 30th! Good luck tonight and let’s get this money!!!!