I’m back everyone! Thanks for everyone’s patience while I was away getting some dental procedures done. You guys rock! I almost had a takedown on Monday night as some of you may have seen me post on social media. I came in 15th place out of 4,800 people in a $5 single entry tournament good for a $87 win! Single entry tournaments are usually the way to go as there are less people in the player pool as opposed to the huge multi-entry big money tournaments where there can be over 100k people! If you’re playing on either DraftKings or FanDuel’s money then that’s one thing but you don’t want to get too crazy in those GPP’s with your own money. I find that double up cash games and single entries are usually the way to go and tiers can be fun too. With all that said, enough of me blabbing! I know you want to know who my favorite plays of this slate are and without further ado, it’s time to BREAK SOME SLATES!! But first my twitter handle and a disclaimer…
Also, for news, injury updates, and my personal gut feelings on who to play after this article is posted, Be sure to check me out on my Twitter handle.
Disclaimer: Remember people, I am not a professional, just an avid NBA fan who loves the sport and loves DFS. We are betting on human beings here which is probably the hardest thing to bet on. Some days we will win. Some days we will lose. I will never argue with any member of any community about who they want to play on any given night. However, if you would like my opinion on a particular player I will gladly help you any way that I can if you ask me. My slogan is “If you like him, play him”. It’s your money and I can’t spend it for you. If I don’t get back to you right away, it’s because I am just like you and work a full time job and I do this in my down time here. I promise to get back to you. Some players who are studs I may not mention in detail here in this article but will be displayed in the “Players I like but did not mention here” portion of the write up towards the end. All stats mentioned are accurate as of today and screenshots can be provided upon request. Credit: Fantasy Sports Degens,RotoWire, Fantasy Alarm, and DFS Wolfpack.
Favorite Plays on the Slate: (In no particular order) ( PG-C position)
Kyle Lowry (TOR) @ DET ($7,700) PG
Lowry is coming off a nice game against the Cavaliers where he put up 44 FPTs Monday night. Now, I know that was the Cavaliers and they stink but the Pistons whom Lowry is facing tonight haven’t been the best at defending opposing point guards lately. In fact, the Pistons are the third worst defensively against the position in their past 5 games and with VanVleet sitting this one out tonight, Lowry will be forced to step up again. Lowry is averaging just over a fantasy point per minute this season and his price hasn’t changed since his last game against Cleveland. That’s good news for us! Solid mid-tier point guard.
D’Angelo Russell (GS) @ POR ($7,800) PG/SG
Russell has been up and down since his return from injury. Tonight, he travels to Portland for a face to face with Damian Lillard. Portland in their last 5 games is 8th defensively against opposing point guards and Russell is priced well for his potential. This is a medium paced game tonight and Russell will have the ball in his hands a ton. We just need shots to fall! He’s not going to be in the 7k range for long. I think Russell realistically hits 5 to 5.5 times value tonight. Russell also is playing better on the road this season, averaging one fantasy point higher than at home. Solid mid-tier point guard.
Damian Lillard (POR) vs. GS ($9,000) PG
I hate his price tonight but Russell plays defense like a revolving door. We need 45 FPTs tonight to hit 5 times value. If you like him, play him. It’s a great matchup and he could come through big but there’s also a chance he comes up average. This game fares much better if it goes down to the wire. He’s solid but risky tonight due to his price. You may disagree.
Jamal Murray (DEN) vs. ORL ($6,200) PG/SG
Ok guys, I get it. This is going to be a painfully slow paced game. The point spread is at 203 tonight for this matchup, But, that doesn’t mean someone in this game won’t be relevant. Jamal Murray has been battling some minor back soreness but even with the pace of this matchup and a minor injury, I cannot look past Murray’s price tonight on DraftKings, Murray leads the Nuggets in usage at just over 25% and Orlando is in the bottom ten at defending opposing point guards. This play is a tad bit volatile but really for the price and Murray’s potential it’s really low risk/high reward.
Kemba Walker (BOS) @ DAL ($7,400) PG
No Doncic? No problem tonight putting Kemba in your lineups. 219.5 Point spread so this one will have some scoring it. Kemba has been on an absolute tear in his past 5 games averaging 47 FPTs per game! Jalen Brunson, nor Seth Curry, nor J.J. Barea (If he sees the floor) will stop Kemba tonight. I expect Brad Stevens to set up his team to expose this weakness in the Mavs backcourt and by you putting Kemba in your lineups tonight, We can all take that ride to cash town babyyyyy!!!!
Zach Lavine (CHI) @ WAS ($8,100) PG/SG
Ok guys, let’s play a quick game of “Did You Know?”. Did you know that Zach Lavine is averaging 42.2 FPTs per game away from home this year? That’s 8.1 more FPTS per game than he averages at home on the year! Did you know? The Wizards are the worst team defensively against opposing shooting guards in their past 5 games? Did you know last night I ate a can of cold spaghetti o’s because I can’t eat solid food until Monday!!! Well that part you didn’t need to know about! Lavine’s price is a little higher than usual but the matchup predicts the price here. Lavine although banged up, like me, has averaged 43.55 FPTs per game in his last 5 games (unlike me). He’s not that expensive if you look at his potential and this will be a high paced game with plenty of scoring to go around. He’s probable with a shin bruise, don’t worry he’s playing.
Andrew Wiggins (MIN) vs. NO ($7,600) SG/SF
This is where the stat trolls crucify me and say, Wiggins?? But he’s going to see Jrue Holiday bruh! Ok stat troll relax, back in your little cave! NBA teams don’t play man to man like they used to back in the 80’s and 90’s and something the stat trolls DO realize is, stats don’t lie and if they don’t lie and they paid attention to those stats they hover over, They would realize that the Pelicans are the third worst all year against opposing shooting guards defensively! Third worst! Andrew Wiggins is dirt cheap for the production he can bring in what should be a high paced game tonight! Fire him up without fear. Solid mid-tier shooting guard.
Jaylen Brown (BOS) @ DAL ($6,700) SG/SF
Besides Kemba, we also have to consider Jaylen Brown in the Celtics backcourt tonight. Dallas is weak there now and is giving up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards. Brown hasn’t fallen off a bunch since the return of Gordon Hayward and I think he has a nice game tonight in Dallas. He’s under 7k due to a bad game against a good defensive team in the Sixers so take advantage tonight against a weaker defensive opponent like Dallas. Solid mid-tier shooting guard.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) vs. MEM ($6,100) PG/SG
SGA has been struggling to get it going lately but he plays better at home and has a nice matchup tonight against the Grizzlies. Every player goes through struggles, but one thing I’ve learned in DFS is you want to be ahead of the game. If SGA goes off tonight, he will be low owned and could help you ascend to mount cashonia. For his price there is minimal risk but we need at least 35 FPTs to be satisfied. Step your game up SGA!!! WE need you!!
Jrue Holiday (NO) @ MIN ($7,800) PG/SG
He’s on the trade block, but that hasn’t hindered Jrue Holiday’s performance whatsoever. He’s well priced tonight at under 8k and he has a plus matchup against the Wolves. In Holiday’s past 5 games, he’s averaging 41.6 FPTs per game and he’s averaging 1.26 FPTs per minute this season. He’s an excellent mid-tier option even on the second leg of a back to back.
Norman Powell (TOR) @ DET ($6,400) SG/SF
Man, what a monster game Powell put up against Cleveland!! He was low owned that night in the GPP I was in (11%). I don’t expect that to be the case tonight. Nonetheless, he has a yummy matchup against the Pistons tonight as they are giving up the 12th most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards. If Powell continues his hot shooting then he could be a low cost option tonight at shooting guard with VanVleet already ruled out for tonight’s game.
Terry Rozier (CHA) @ CLE ($6,000) PG/SG
I like Rozier much better tonight against the Cavs than I do Devonte Graham. Graham has missed value his past three games and there is enough beef on this slate where I don’t need to spend up to take another risk. I’m not saying Graham couldn’t have a great game but the Cavs stink and this could get out of hand quick. (Maybe not considering they stuck in there with the Rockets). I like Rozier’s price better and at his price, all I need is 30 FPTs to reach five times value. Rozier has been a little cold shooting lately but this is the perfect bounce back opportunity for him against the Cavs. I like Rozier as a solid value shooting guard tonight even on the second leg of a back to back. Low Risk/High Reward.
Brandon Ingram (NO) @ MIN ($8,000) SF/PF
Ingram is in a great matchup tonight against the Wolves. The Wolves give up the most FPTs to opposing small forwards and Ingram’s on the second leg of a back to back but I can see a big night for him here against the Wolves. Both teams aren’t great defensively so let’s sit back and watch the buckets fall!!!
Will Barton (DEN) vs. ORL ($6,400) PG/SF
Slow paced game…check. Barton fourth on the team in usage…check. I don’t really give a crap…check!
Listen, Barton is well priced at $6,400 and the Magic are second worst against the small forward in the past 5 games. I’m going to play the matchup and at this price if Barton can get me 35 FPTs tonight, I’m happy. Is it risky? Sure. Tell me who wins GPP’s consistently by being safe??
Gordon Hayward (BOS) @ DAL ($6,300) SF/PF
Yes I’m a Celtics fan, no I’m not mentioning everyone on the team, and no I’m not advising that you stack Celtics tonight. I will say that my job is to mention players whom I think have great matchups and that can add to your lineups. Hayward is also in a great spot tonight against the Mavs. They are giving up the 6th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards in their past 5 games. Whether you use, Walker, Brown, or Hayward, they all have potential for good nights in a good matchup.
Tobias Harris (PHI) vs. MIA ($7,300) SF/PF
Harris has a nice matchup tonight as he should see a lot of Duncan Robinson tonight. The last time Harris faced the Heat, he put up 36.5 FPTs and at his price tonight to hit 5 times value we just need a clone performance of that one! I think he’s in a great spot to do so tonight! Solid mid-tier small forward.
Davis Bertans (WAS) vs. CHI ($6,500) SF/PF
Hachimura is out, Bertans is in, and hopefully in your lineups tonight too. I absolutely love exposing Chicago’s front court and Bertans is just the man to do it tonight for us! 8 days ago, he exposed a similarly weak defensive front court (CHA) for 50 FPTs! I’m not saying he will do that tonight, but I’m also not saying that he couldn’t either. He plays better at home and I see him as a great mid-tier pick tonight.
Lauri Markkanen (CHI) @ WAS ($5,900) PF/C
Even though Markkanen has been having an up and down year, I can’t look past his price tonight or his matchup on the other side of Bertans. Markkanen has broken my heart all year and I’ll probably regret using him tonight but I have to. I play the matchups. You should always too. He averages 2.5 more FPTs away from home and though that statistic may not mean a ton to you, it just furthers my gut to play him even more. The price is right.
Draymond Green (GS) @ POR ($5,800) PG/SF
Green also does not come without risks but he is playing Carmelo Anthony tonight who lacks defensive skills as we all know. Green seems to flourish in easier matchups and disappears when things get tough this year and I get that he’s trying to preserve himself for next year. Tonight is a great matchup so hopefully he can come through for us. He will probably be low owned and that’s what we want, we just want to make sure we get 5-6 times our investment for him to be worth a roster spot in our lineups.
Kevin Love (CLE) vs. CHA ($6,800) PF/C
Cleveland stinks, I’m just hoping that this game stays close enough for Love to produce for us. He’s trying to put on a show for his trade buyers so he could be sneaky good tonight against an exploitable Hornets front court. Love is risky but my gut tells me he could have a nice night.
Hassan Whiteside (POR) vs. GS ($8,500) Center
Whiteside’s price is high tonight but it’s a good matchup against Cauley Stein and Looney. Whiteside should dominate at home tonight against the Warriors. Solid spend up at Center.
Joel Embiid (PHI) vs. MIA ($9,800) Center
Embiid shouldn’t have an issue producing against Adebayo tonight. He has been on a tear his last three games averaging 55.3 FPTs per game in that period. If Embiid stays in the paint and keeps attacking the basket then he will be my favorite center on this slate tonight. Solid spend up at Center.
Dwight Powell (DAL) vs. BOS ($3,800) Center
Boston isn’t good against centers. Powell isn’t the best producer at center as I see him as more of a power forward. This is a complete punt play for GPP. Gut feeling pick sprinkled with stats added. Could be sneaky, low risk/high reward.
Wendell Carter Jr. (CHI) @ WAS ($6,000)
Carter is probable and has held this designation and played through it. I think he could be a sneaky good play tonight against Washington whom is very banged up at the center position. I could definitely see 5-6 times value tonight at this price.
If you guys have any questions regarding any player I mentioned or did not mention here, please contact me and I will answer any questions you may have. This is a fairly large slate so there is a bunch of value here for us tonight.
The Core 5: (These are my favorite players at every position tonight. These are not locks as I don’t believe in ever calling a player a lock. These are my favorite plays at every position and are not meant to be a method of an example lineup. The Core 5 has been a section I’ve received requests to do by our followers of the website and in the fb group I do the article for as well. Without further ado, here are my Core 5.
PG: Kemba Walker (BOS) @ DAL ($7,400) PG
SG: Andrew Wiggins (MIN) vs. NO ($7,600) SG/SF
SF: Brandon Ingram (NO) @ MIN ($8,000) SF/PF
PF: Davis Bertans (WAS) vs. CHI ($6,500) SF/PF
Center: Joel Embiid (PHI) vs. MIA ($9,800) Center
Thanks for reading guys!! Break’n Slates will return Friday for another big NBA main slate. Tomorrow I have annual inventory at work. If you have any questions please let me know!