Man, those four game slates are tough to predict! Four Miami Heat players dominated in scoring last night in what we believed could have been a blowout. This is NBA DFS in a nutshell, one of the hardest DFS categories to figure out and NO ONE is an expert! You can read stats all day long and waste hours and hours of time analyzing a slate and still lose! The beauty of the sport is everyone has a different opinion and I enjoy listening to people’s reasoning behind whom they pick. If someone was as good as they claim they are, then they would win thousands every night. This is not the case. I’m not an expert, I’m usually pretty consistent and have been doing NBA DFS for years and I don’t mind if you disagree with any of my picks at all. You play who you want, but my goal is that you read the article and maybe try a couple players I mention here and hope it helps you cash at the end of the night. We are all unique and that’s what makes your lineups and this game special. Geez, I feel like I’m giving a life lesson that usually occurred at the end of a Sesame Street episode. Oh yeah and R.I.P Big Bird aka Carol Spinney! Ok, let’s get to it, we have a monster 11 game NBA main slate on DraftKings and we need to recoup our money after last night. It’s time to break some slates!!!!
Also, for news, injury updates, and my personal gut feelings on who to play after this article is posted, Be sure to check me out on my Twitter handle.
Disclaimer: Remember people, I am not a professional, just an avid NBA fan who loves the sport and loves DFS. We are betting on human beings here which is probably the hardest thing to bet on. Some days we will win. Some days we will lose. I will never argue with any member of any community about who they want to play on any given night. However, if you would like my opinion on a particular player I will gladly help you any way that I can if you ask me. My slogan is “If you like him, play him”. It’s your money and I can’t spend it for you. If I don’t get back to you right away, it’s because I am just like you and work a full time job and I do this in my down time here. I promise to get back to you. Some players who are studs I may not mention in detail here in this article but will be displayed in the “Players I like but did not mention here” portion of the write up towards the end. All stats mentioned are accurate as of today and screenshots can be provided upon request. Credit: Fantasy Sports Degens,RotoWire, Fantasy Alarm, and DFS Wolfpack.
Favorite Plays on the Slate: (In no particular order) ( PG-C position)
Eric Bledsoe (MIL) vs. NO ($6,000) PG
Bledsoe isn’t relied on as much to score with Khris Middleton back in the lineup. However, that doesn’t mean that he’s not still a reliable player in DFS. Bledsoe seems to have accepted his role as a facilitator and also fills the other stat categories as well. Tonight, Bledsoe faces a New Orleans team that focuses on scoring buckets much more than defense. The Pelicans are ranked worst defensively against opposing point guards all season. Bledsoe is decently priced here and has potential to reach just over 5 times value. If he happens to take more shots than usual, then you may have found yourself a nice mid-tier point guard in a high paced game that could be low owned tonight.
Ricky Rubio (PHX) vs. MEM ($7,300) PG
Ricky Rubio finds himself in a high paced matchup tonight as well, The point spread in the Suns/Grizzlies game tonight is 232.5 and if you’re looking for a defensive game, This isn’t it! Rubio has been a double double machine in three of his last four games. Rubio has averaged 45.3 FPTs per game in his last three games and the Grizzlies are the 8th worst team defensively against opposing point guards in their past 5 games. His price is a little higher but I can’t look past his production especially with the Memphis Grizzlies coming to town who have defensive flaws in their backcourt. Solid mid-tier option at point guard.
Donovan Mitchell (UTA) @ MIN ($7,400) PG/SG
Mike Conley’s already been ruled out for this game, and Donovan Mitchell will resume point guard duties presumably once again. Donovan Mitchell’s usage rate in this offense is 31.8%. This means he is the offense right now for the Jazz. (31.8% usage is the same as Russell Westbrook in Houston, so that’s saying something.) Tonight, Mitchell is in a great matchup against a Timberwolves team who is third worst at defending opposing point guards in their past 5 games. I see Mitchell throwing up a ton of shots tonight and if the majority fall, you got yourself a really nice mid-tier point guard.
Ja Morant (MEM) @ PHX ($7,300) PG
As much as I love Rubio, I love Ja Morant all the same. He’s averaging 40.5 FPTs per game over his past 4 contests. Morant is not your typical rookie, he generally doesn’t turn the ball over much and he’s also a great passer. Phoenix is 6th worst defensively against opposing point guards in their past 5 games. If Morant can get us 5 times minimum value in his battle with Rubio tonight, then you have yourself a nice mid tier option at point guard. Rookie of the year candidate right here!
Zach Lavine (CHI) vs. ATL ($7,900) PG/SG
Lavine is a little banged up but he hasn’t missed a game due to injury all season. Keep an eye on the injury reports but as of this morning he’s probable with a mid-back contusion. I think Lavine will be fine to play the Hawks at home and it’s a very good matchup on paper. The Hawks in their past 5 games have given up the most FPTs to opposing shooting guards. This game seems to be a nice pace game with the point spread at 222 so there should definitely be some scoring. Lavine is volatile sometimes but he is playing the Hawks tonight so I can see him reach 5 times value at this price if the stars align.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) @ SAC ($6,600) PG/SG
SGA has had a nice little run in his last three games. He’s averaging 38.3 FPTs per game in those contests. I like this matchup on paper. The Kings are 7th against opposing shooting guards in their past 5 games and SGA has the highest usage rate on the Thunder with 25.3%. If SGA gets going, he could put up a solid scoring output for us tonight. There is a ton of value on this slate. He’s not my favorite shooting guard tonight but my gut is telling me I have to mention him. I’m expecting 4.5-5 times value tonight for SGA.
Devin Booker (PHX) vs. MEM ($8,800) PG/SG
I’m not a fan of his price, but he is in a plus matchup against the Grizzlies tonight in what looks to be a high paced game. He’s averaging 55 FPTs in his past 3 games. Booker does not come without risk as he can be volatile on some nights as well. I can’t look past him because he’s been very productive as of late. The Grizzlies also have given up the 11th most fantasy points defensively to the position. There is a lot of value on this slate but Booker isn’t a bad choice to spend up on.
Kawhi Leonard (LAC) @ TOR ($8,700) SG/SF
You know I couldn’t go without mentioning Kawhi in this article! He knows a ton about his former teammates and although his knee is hurting him, Do not think for one second when he receives his ring tonight that he doesn’t want to crush the hearts of Raptors fans tonight even more. He is my favorite shooting guard on this slate tonight. REVENGE factor…well not entirely but this game still means a lot to Leonard tonight.
Danuel House ($4,800) SF/PF or Ben McLemore ($5,400) SG/SF (HOU) @ CLE
Again, I like both of these players for different reasons. I like Danuel House because he’s healthy and he’s starting and he’s cheap with a ton of potential. I like McLemore because let’s face it, he’s still seeing over 30 minutes a game with House back and he’s averaging 33.7 FPTs per game in that period. This game has blowout written all over it so instead of spending up on Westbrook and Harden tonight, why not pick one of these Rockets and indulge in the potential both can bring to your team in a juicy matchup. Cleveland is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing small forwards in their last 5 games. They will definitely be in some of my lineups tonight.
Jrue Holiday (NO) @ MIL ($7,100) PG/SG
I can’t in good conscience overlook Holiday at this price. He faced Detroit on Monday who is a better defensive team against shooting guards and still put up 38 FPTs at the same price he is tonight. That’s 5 times value and that’s what we’re looking for at a bare minimum with every player on any given night. If his three pointer happens to fall in this high paced game and he fills the stat sheet tonight, you’ll be sorry you didn’t give Jrue a look during the holiday season! Solid mid-tier option.
Terry Rozier (CHA) @ BKN ($7,100) PG/SG
Another solid mid tier option at shooting guard is Scary Terry! Yes, he’s on a back to back but I really don’t give a damn! Hold your breath stat trolls! Rozier is second in usage on the team and is a key cog to this offenses success. Brooklyn is average at best against opposing shooting guards and Rozier has flourished since switching to the two guard spot for the Hornets. Rozier is averaging over 30 FPTs a game since the change and does very well off the ball. Another solid mid-tier option that could be low owned tonight.
Paul George (LAC) @ TOR ($8,400) SF/PF
This could be my favorite player on the slate tonight next to his partner in crime Kawhi! Paul George annihilated his former team the Indiana Pacers on Monday for 62.75 FPTs!! What do you think he’s going to do tonight against the worst team defensively against small forwards all year long! You think OG Anunoby is going to stop George?? Or Pascal Siakam?? Please, plug him in and watch the points fall in Toronto tonight. Excellent spend up option!
Garrett Temple (BKN) vs. CHA ($5,500) SG/SF
Temple has a nice matchup tonight vs. the Hornets. He’s scored 30 FPTs in his past 2 of 3 contests and he is seeing extra minutes and benefits from the absence of Kyrie Irving. To reach 5 times value he only needs to get 27.5 FPTs for your team and I don’t think that’s unheard of at all in a matchup with Charlotte who is 5th worst against opposing small forwards in their past 5 games. Nice value play here.
Andrew Wiggins (MIN) vs. UTA ($7,000) SG/SF
Whether it be Joe Ingles or Royce O’Neal on Wiggins tonight, I just can’t see either one of them giving him much trouble tonight. Wiggins is pretty cheap tonight against a struggling Jazz team. I like him a lot tonight and you should too. This is not the same Jazz team from last year. Start him up!
Khris Middleton (MIL) vs. NO ($6,400) SG/SF
This game could get out of hand, but if it doesn’t, Middleton is too cheap for me to ignore. He’s going to see a lot of JJ Redick tonight. Middleton is a smooth shooter who can do damage when the ball is in his hands. At this price, it’s a no brainer for me. Solid mid-tier option at small forward against a very bad defensive team. Update: Giannis is out, so Middleton is a HUGE value tonight!
Draymond Green (GS) vs. NY ($5,800) PG/SF
Green has been up and down lately. If anyone misses Steph Curry it’s him. But we don’t have Curry in the mix this season it looks, BUT what we do have is a yummy matchup against an almost equally terrible team in the Knicks! The Knicks are the worst at defending opposing power forwards in their past 5 games and I think Green has a chance to have a really nice game tonight. He’s has 5-6 times value potential at this price and he may be someone you’d want to consider adding to your lineup tonight so you can fit more studs and get 30-35 FPT production.
Jayson Tatum (BOS) @ IND ($7,500) SF/PF
This is a slower paced game but again stat trolls, someone has to score some points. So lay off and let me consider Jayson Tatum tonight! Tatum is in a nice spot against the Pacers tonight. They are giving up the 6th most fantasy points to opposing power forwards in their past 5 games. And in Tatum’s past 5 games, he’s averaging 46.1 FPTs per game! Take that stat trolls! I’m playing him in a slow paced game and I don’t care! So there! Solid mid-tier option.
Bojan Bogdanovic (UTA) @ MIN ($6,100) SF/PF
Covington is not an easy defender to get past but he is beatable. Bogdanovic gets the second highest usage on the team with Mike Conley out of the lineup (25.9%) and he’s averaged 36.0 FPTs in his last two meetings with the Wolves. He’s a solid option tonight to consider. I also like Covington on the other side but if I had to choose, it’s Bojan for tonight in regards to potential for me.
Pascal Siakam (TOR) vs. LAC ($8,000) PF/C
Siakam is going to try and derail the Kawhi Leonard welcome wagon tonight in Toronto. Siakam has showed up and shown out since the absence of Kawhi and tonight he get’s a nice matchup vs Moe Harkless whom is not a terrible defender whatsoever but Siakam is on another level this season. The Clippers are 9th worst in the league defensively against the power forward position in their past 5 games and I think Siakam should produce well in this game for you. He’s a little expensive tonight, but if VanVleet misses this game, I think Siakam will have a huge role for the Raptors tonight against the Clippers. Decent spend up option but has nice potential.
Anthony Davis (LAL) @ ORL ($10,400) PF/C
If you want to save $600 then take a look at Anthony Davis. I like Davis more than LeBron because he’s cheaper tonight but it’s safe to play both. I like Davis’ upside going up against Aaron Gordon tonight. He’s averaging 56.25 FPTs over his past 4 games and the Magic are 12th worst against the position. Not a bad spend up option tonight at all as we all know he has a 70-75 FPT ceiling. I think this matchup will be closer in score to the Bucks/Pelicans too. Maybe not!
Brandon Ingram (NO) @ MIL ($7,800) SF/PF
Ingram is pretty close to being matchup proof this year. His price is under 8k and we need 40 FPTs from him to make 5 times value tonight. He is the heartbeat of this Pelicans offense and if they’re going to keep up with the Bucks tonight, they’re going to have to lean on Ingram a lot. This is a volatile play but the price isn’t terrible for the caliber player he is. You may disagree and that’s fine but I still like Ingram tonight.
Update: Giannis is OUT so this is a huge value increase for Ingram tonight!
Lauri Markkanen (CHI) vs. ATL ($6,300) PF/C
This is a gut feeling for me tonight. Jabari Parker is about as good at defense as Carmelo Anthony. Yup, that good! Markkanen has been up and down all year but I think he does well in this matchup. He gets the second highest usage rate on the Bulls and he’s averaging over 30 FPTs in his past 4 games. If he can get us 5-6 times value he could be a steal tonight against a very bad Hawks team.
Karl Anthony-Towns (MIN) vs. UTA ($10,000) Center
KAT is probably my favorite center on this slate tonight. He welcomes the struggling Jazz and Rudy Gobert tonight and KAT has been on fire averaging over 50 FPTs in his past 3 of 4 games. In his past two games against the Jazz this season he’s averaging 48.9 FPTs. KAT is a great spend up option at center tonight.
Myles Turner (IND) vs. BOS ($5,200) Center
This could be one of the sneakiest picks all night or one of the most boneheaded. I’m all about risk and I like the matchup tonight against the Celtics for Turner at home. Celtics have given up the 4th most fantasy points against opposing centers in their past 5 games and for this price for Turner, there isn’t a huge amount of risk involved, Especially with 26 FPTs being 5 times value. We definitely want more points than that like those old AT&T commercials with the kids saying “We want more, we want more!”. Myles could be one of the sneakiest centers on the slate because the stat trolls will tell you not to play him because they are looking at previous contests and the pace of the game. Don’t listen to them. Stats aren’t playing the game. The players are.
Rudy Gobert (UTA) @ MIN ($7,700) Center
So if you like to build your team around mid-tier players tonight, why not give Gobert a spot in your lineups? I know I talked some mess about the Jazz struggling and it’s true but this offense is generated mostly through Gobert and Mitchell. The Wolves aren’t a dynamic defensive team and Gobert is averaging 40.9 FPTs per game against them this season. At his price, 40 FPTs would be a decent night. I can realistically see Gobert reach 5-6 times value tonight against the Wolves. Great mid-tier option at center.
Steven Adams (OKC) @ SAC ($6,500) Center
Steven Adams has woken up from his inconsistencies as of late, scoring over 35 FPTs in his last 5 of 6 games including a 51 FPT monster against the T-Wolves. The Kings are 12th worst against opposing centers this year defensively and I have to ride the hot hand into this contest tonight. If Adams can continue his reign of terror tonight on Richaun Holmes then you may have found yourself a nice low owned center in the mid tier price range you were seeking.
Aron Baynes (PHO) vs. MEM ($4,900) Center
Baynes is probable for tonight’s contest and he should definitely play and I believe he will see more minutes tonight and possibly rejoin the starting lineup. Baynes is volatile don’t get me wrong but if he can get you 25 FPTs for this price, it wasn’t much of a risk at all so you could stack your lineups with more studs. Players like this at this price are what can break a GPP pool. Keep an eye on further news regarding Baynes but I like him if he’s starting and if he sees over 20-25 minutes tonight for sure. Solid value play.
Westbrook and Harden are definitely in play if you want to spend up tonight against Cleveland. I just think there are better values on the slate tonight especially since this game could and probably will get out of hand quick!
Chris Paul is a good play at $7,100 tonight but I like him, don’t love him tonight. I like Dennis Schroder better at $6,000.
Devonte’ Graham is too expensive for my taste tonight with all this value on the slate. You may love him. I hate the price.
I also don’t care much for Spencer Dinwiddie’s price tonight at $8,100, if he was under 8k, I would have mentioned him in the article. Graham isn’t a great defender but Rozier is and if they start putting Rozier on Dinwiddie, I’m not a fan.
I love Kevin Love’s matchup. I don’t like Kevin Love or the Cavs. Plus I feel like he’s lost interest in playing in Cleveland and will coast along until he gets traded away.
It’s a huge slate with plenty of value guys so if you have any questions please feel free to direct them my way. Just because I didn’t mention a certain player here does not mean I don’t like them or that I’m not playing them in my lineups tonight.
The Core 5: (These are my favorite players at every position tonight. These are not locks as I don’t believe in ever calling a player a lock. These are my favorite plays at every position and are not meant to be a method of an example lineup. The Core 5 has been a section I’ve received requests to do by our followers of the website and in the fb group I do the article for as well. Without further ado, here are my Core 5.
PG: Ricky Rubio (PHX) vs. MEM ($7,300) PG
SG: Kawhi Leonard (LAC) @ TOR ($8,700) SG/SF
SF: Paul George (LAC) @ TOR ($8,400) SF/PF
PF: Anthony Davis (LAL) @ ORL ($10,400) PF/C
Center: Karl Anthony-Towns (MIN) vs. UTA ($10,000) Center
Thanks for reading and Good luck everyone!!