Kansas Lottery 250 

NASCAR Xfinity Series

Saturday, July 25th, 2020

Race Information

  • Green flag @ 5:15 EST
  • Kansas Motor Speedway (1.5-mile D-shaped oval)
  • 167 laps
  • Stages: 40/40/87 laps

Track History

  • 2019: Brandon Jones won after all the best cars ran into trouble. Cindric had multiple issues. Gragson hit the wall a few too many times. Custer and Bell struggled late as well. 4 drivers had over 20 fast laps and 3 drivers led over 30 laps. 12 of the top 15 finishers started in the top 15.
  • 2018: 1st and 2nd place finishers, Nemechek and Hemric, led all but 8 laps in the race. Series frontrunners, Jones, Bell, Allgaier, Cindric, Annett, Briscoe, and Custer, all finished worse than 26th, more than 19 laps down. 3 drivers led over 20 laps.
  • 2017: The majority of the best drivers finished at the top in this race. Erik Jones faded to a 15th place finish after leading 93% of the laps. 3 drivers finished with over 20 fastest laps. 

Roster Construction

I think the best route to go is a multiple dominator build. This race does have 33 fewer laps (25 fewer dom points) than in recent years, but trends show that fastest laps have been split among 3+ drivers. In a shorter race like this, however, place differential is still important. 

$10k and above

Austin Cindric (4) – While he isn’t the best driver in the series, he does have the fastest car this year. He’s also statistically the best restarter from the non-preferred groove and on a 3 race win streak, all of which came at other 1.5 mile tracks. His driver rating in the past 5 races has ranked 2, 1, 1, 2, 5. He will need a decent amount of dom points to pay off given his high salary but I’m willing to bet his speed will prevail.

Chase Briscoe (6) – Not in love with this play. He does have 5 wins on the season, but most came as a result of pit strategy in my opinion. He’s got less fastest laps and laps led than other contenders, but has been statistically the top-ranked driver in the series so far this season and has finished top 4 in each of the past 6 races excluding Talladega.

Noah Gragson (10) – This is probably my favorite dominator play on the slate. He was tops in green-flag speed at Homestead and Atlanta where he ran the top line. He ran that same line here last year and was fast but hit the wall a few too many times. Also, starting the 10th, he provides some added PD upside at a lower salary.

$8k to $10k

Daniel Hemric (9) – This #8 car looked best when retired Dale Jr. ran it at Homestead. Jeb Burton and Daniel Hemric have struggled to finish races equal to the car’s production. However, he is the top-ranked restarter in this race and at a track where passing is difficult, he should be able to make up positions on restarts. He also had over 100 laps led in the 2018 race, albeit in a different car. Easily a top 5 car which would pay off his salary.

Brett Moffitt (23) – Boy, he proved me wrong last night as well as the past 2 weeks. He is the Aric Almirola of the Truck Series. Xfinity Series has been a different animal. He has been consistently outperforming his equipment when he avoids trouble. Likely a top 10-15 car. Starting 23rd, we need a top 12 finish to pay off.  Has struggled more in recent weeks, likely keeping his ownership down.

Fades: Burton, Clements, Herbst, Labbe

*Note: A lot of players will flock to Snider starting 33rd but I think he’s a trap play. His best results this season have come in a different car. His current team switched management in June and his finishes have gradually gotten worse (30th or worse in the past 2).

$6k to $8k

Kaz Grala (3) – Not sure how people will approach this play today. I’ve heard him talked up on a few videos but others are not even considering him. This is the #21 RCR Chevy that Alfredo and Snider have had success in this year. Likely a 5th-10th place car but potential to gain some dom points starting 3rd. I’d feel more confident in he had practice, but he’s a potential GPP pivot.

Colin Garrett (37) – Starting dead last, he will likely be owned but his price is higher than most punts. Should be able to finish around 25th. With a few wrecks, he could crack the top 20 to pay off his salary. I like the play but wish the price was better.

Brandon Brown (22) – This one-car team has overachieved this season with the majority of their finishes in the top 15 which is all we need to pay off his salary. Very similar play to Clements who is starting 17th and 2600 more expensive.

Ryan Sieg (16) – Risky play. I have been on Sieg more often than most, similar to Majeski in the Truck Series. Has shown the ability to run top 10 if issues don’t arise, but he just can’t seem to miss the wrecks. While he is still struggling, this could be a sneaky pivot.

Fades: Williams, Miller, Graf Jr

$6k and below

Kyle Weatherman (35) – It’s mindblowing to see Mike Harmon Racing cars running as well as they have until you remember it’s because Harmon isn’t wheeling them. Weatherman and teammate Bayley Currey have been running 20th to 25th and gave the team their 1st top 10 finish in years. Need a 24th place finish to pay off at 5x value. Interesting nugget: Currey and Weatherman are ranked the 1st and 2nd most efficient passers in the Xfinity series this year!

Jesse Little (14) – I expect this play to be chalky. At such a low price, Little just needs to finish 16th. He has finished top 15 in 6 of the last 7 races. The JD Motorsports cars have actually been running well (15th-20th). Earnhardt could be a sneaky pivot but much riskier.

David Starr (15) – It’s not often that we’re expecting punts to finish the top 20 but this slate is a different story. Starr is racing the #07 car that he wheeled to a 13th place finish last week at Texas.  Other finishes in this car at 1.5-mile tracks this year include 17th at Vegas, 16th at Kentucky, and 11th at Homestead. A 17th place finish will pay off today.

BJ McLeod (20) – Plain and simple, he’s a 20th place driver. He was doing better earlier in the season but has regressed some. If he holds his position, he can work. Just another punt if you need the salary.

Fades: Mills, Vanderwal, Leicht, Bean

Final Thoughts

My lineups will likely consist of Cindric, Briscoe, or Gragson as my main dom. Will then pair with Hemric or Grala unless I double up on high priced doms. Brown is probably my favorite mid-priced play. If playing cash, my core would be Cindric, Brown, Little. Other than that, best of luck! 

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