Alsco Uniforms 250 (Xfinity)

Texas Motor Speedway

Saturday, June 12, 2021

Drivers to Target

$10k and above

Kyle Busch (14) – One of my offseason rules for success was if a driver is priced over $12000, play them. They’re priced there for good reason, and this week is no different. Busch has won the past 2 spring Xfinity races at Texas in dominating fashion, racking up over 40 hog points in each race. Now, he starts 14th, providing a little place differential. I have him projected for 25 more points than the next closest driver. There’s always the contrarian fade, but I will play KB in 100% of my 3 max lineups and 75% of 20 max.

Noah Gragson (30) – Thanks to some terrible luck recently, Gragson will be starting near the back in 30th. It hasn’t been the season he’s hoped for, but he has had his best runs at the 1.5 mile tracks. Last fall at Texas, he had the best car until the waning laps when Harrison Burton ran him down from behind. I expect a strong rebound, and I’m hoping ownership is down due to his recent struggles. 

Austin Cindric (4) – In any race that Busch does not run, it appears Cindric is one of the cars to beat. He has finished top 4 in 4 of the past 5 Texas races as well. He has been a top 5 car at the intermediate tracks this season, which won’t be enough to hit value. He needs to lead early before Busch makes his way to the front and score at least 10 hog points to have a chance at reaching 5x value. I’ll be underweight as I think others have more upside, especially in the event that Busch dominates this race.

Josh Berry (28) – Berry is back in the #8 JR Motorsports car after filling in for Jordan Anderson at Mid-Ohio last week. Thus, he will be starting back in the 28th position. At most tracks this season, Berry has little to no experience. This week is a little different as he will be running the Truck Series race just prior to the Xfinity race. Those laps will be extremely valuable in my opinion. He has run well without practice, so why should I fade him now? The only limiting factor is his price and my desire to fit in KB. Berry is definitely a strong cash play, however.

$8k to $10k

Justin Allgaier (16) – As you can tell, there are a lot of good drivers with a decent amount of place differential upside today. Allgaier ranked 1st in driver rating here last spring, which may go overlooked since he only finished 4th. He does have two wins on 1.5 mile tracks this season, albeit they were Darlington and Atlanta, both of which have much more tire wear than Texas. At his price, he’s in strong contention for 6x value with a top 5 finish.

Harrison Burton (18) – I almost never play him, but it’s mainly because he’s usually starting too close to the front. This week, he is a similar play to Allgaier, a la Crafton and Enfinger in the Truck Series race, starting mid-teens with strong top 5 upside. His past 3 finishes at Texas are 1st, 5th, and 7th. He hasn’t had race-winning speed this season, but consistently has ranked top 5 in driver rating in 2021. Pick your poison.

Daniel Hemric (5) – If I’m writing up Cindric, I have to include Hemric. In my opinion, he is the same play, but for nearly $2k less. Despite never winning in any series (Have I mentioned that before?), he has been racking up fast laps most laps. I have him projected for 10 hog points, which would achieve 6x value with a 2nd place finish. If I really want to include another dominator besides Busch, I’ll give the edge to Hemric over Cindric.

*May also consider: Jeb Burton (8) – Just needs a top 5 finish for 5x value.

$6k to $8k

Myatt Snider (17) – My projections like him this week, but I never feel comfortable including him in my lineups. He did win at Homestead earlier this year, but only has one other top 10 finish since then. If he can avoid wrecks, his equipment is worthy of top 10 potential. Finishing 12th would yield 5x value.

Bayley Currey (39) – In his past 5 races at Texas, he has not finished worse than 22nd. On the other hand, he only has one finish better than 22nd in any race this season. Starting 39th, he can’t hurt you and should have a strong chance at some place differential points. I like his chances of a top 25 finish for 5x value. 

Tommy Joe Martins (36) – The story with TJM has consistently been that if his equipment holds up and he avoids wrecks, he can finish in the top 15. The same has remained true this year as he has 7 top 20s and 3 top 15x. He also has 4 finishes worst than 25th, though. Last 3 finishes at Texas are 10, 16, and 19. Where’s the downside? He has had wrecks each of the past 3 weeks. For a small, low budget team, can we trust whatever equipment he has to bring this week? I’m not sure. A strong GPP play but I trust Currey more for cash.

$6k and below

Garrett Smithley (27) – I really don’t like being down here in this range, but I may have to this week to fit Kyle Busch and any other high-priced drivers. Smithley is the one I have the most trust in below 6k. He finished 24th at Vegas earlier this year, as well as 17th here at Texas in 2019. He is driving the Rick Ware car this week. Though they suck in the Cup Series, ehtier Xfinity program isn’t the worst. JJ Yeley consistently took this car to top 20 finishes, which would achieve 5x value if Smithely were able to do the same. If considering anyone else, it’s be Kyle Weatherman for salary relief. He has similar upside to his teammate, Currey, but less place differential upside.