Welcome to my breakdown for this week’s Truck Series race in Dover, Delaware! After a hectic week at the Daytona road course, it’s nice to be back on an oval. Without further ado, let’s dig in!
This track is a 1-mile concrete speedway. There is very little room for error with especially tight exits out of the corners. Over the past 7 races here, there has been an average of 7 cautions for 37 laps. Let’s look at some quick track history.
2019: 12 of 15 top 15 finishers started in the top 15. 6 of 9 drivers starting worse than 24th finished there as well. 3 drivers led 40+ laps, and 4 drivers had over 20 fastest laps. 1 driver gained 10+ positions.
2018: 11 of 15 top 15 finishers started in the top 15. 7 of 9 drivers starting worse than 24th finished there as well. 2 drivers led 60+ laps, and 3 drivers had over 20 fastest laps. 2 drivers gained 10+ positions.
2017: 12 of 15 top 15 finishers started in the top 15. 6 of 9 drivers starting worse than 24th finished there as well. 4 drivers led 30+ laps, and 3 drivers had over 25 fastest laps. 4 drivers gained 10+ positions.
With the race being 200 laps, there are approximately 112 dominator points available. Given this information and recent track history, we need to target a 2-3 dominator build. I will also be focusing on finishing position with a little place differential.
Targets and Fades
$10k and above
Austin Hill (11200) – Starting 3rd. I’ll admit, he’s not my favorite play this week, but when you have the fastest truck in the series, you’re almost always in play. Hill has the best avg finish (7.9) at 1 to 1.5-mile tracks this season and had an average running position of 6.6 here last year. A strong contender to lead.
Brett Moffitt (10300) – Starting 1st. Over the past 5 weeks, he has been the hottest driver in the series. Whatever speed he was lacking to start the season is no longer an issue, now ranking 2nd in speed. Moffitt ranks 6th in surplus passing value, which will be beneficial at this track. Avg running position of 2.2 here last year with a driver rating of 138 and 2nd in green-flag speed. Maybe chalky but strong play in all formats.
Fades: Parker Kligerman and Johnny Sauter will not be making my lineups this week. Sauter should be the highest owned driver on the slate due to his 3 consecutive wins here at Dover. However, he has not been the same powerhouse this season that he has been in years past. He ranks 9th in both speeds and passing with an avg finish of 16.6 at intermediate tracks this year. Needs 3rd place to pay off and I just don’t think he gets there. Kligerman is still priced up here as if he is starting in the back again. Starting 13th, he needs to win to pay off.
$8k to $10k
Christian Eckes (9700) – Starting 9th. Risky play but one I am considering. He has the 3rd best avg finish at intermediate tracks this season, including 4 top 3 finishes. Needs 2nd to pay off.
Chandler Smith (9300) – Despite his 22nd and 38th place finish in his 2 starts this year, I’m going right back to him. One was due to an untimely caution for rain and he was wrecked in the other. Now, he only needs a 10th place finish to hit value. His truck has ranked 4th in speed this season and he’s one of the more talented drivers in the field.
Sheldon Creed (9100) – Starting 2nd. If you aren’t playing Moffitt, this is the next place I’d go for a potential dominator. He has looked impressive this season and already has 2 wins. As the best restarter in the series, he has a chance to lead early. Ranks 5th in speed. Led 59 laps at Dover last year starting 3rd before being wrecked late.
Todd Gilliland (8900) – Starting 17th. Ranks 6th in speed with avg finish of 15.1 on intermediate tracks. Gilliland has had a top 10 avg running position in 9 of 12 races this year. Not as confident in this play but he’s another PD option.
Zane Smith (8500) – Starting 7th. Smith is a possible low-priced dominator option. He ranks 3rd in speed and 4th in surplus passing value this season. He also has 5 intermediate races with an avg running position in the top 7. With the addition of the chosen cone, Smith picked up the most positions in the field and ultimately set himself up for this first win. Needs 4th place to hit value, possibly less with some dom points.
$6k to $8k
Derek Kraus (8000) – Starting 16th. As a part-time driver in 2019, Kraus ranked 6th in green-flag speed here at Dover. This year, he ranks 13th overall and 7th in passing. He also has the 5th best avg finish on intermediate tracks this season (11.4) and has finished 11th or better in the past 5. Needs 10th place to hit value for us.
Ty Majeski (7500) – Starting 21st. It never feels good playing Majeski since most weeks, he’s a wreck waiting to happen. Thus far, his iRacing skills haven’t translated over to real racing. He does have 6 top 15 finishes in intermediate races this season and is in decent equipment. GPP play only. Needs 13th to pay off.
Bayley Currey (6900) – Starting 28th. He will likely rank poorly if looking at this season’s stats, but that was with a terrible team. This week, he takes over the Niece Motorsports truck normally driven by Natalie Decker, which is a decent truck. Though he doesn’t have many Truck Series, he does rank as the best passer in the Xfinity Series. Needs 18th place to hit value.
Timmy Hill (6400) – Starting 30th. Has an avg finish of 21.8 on intermediate tracks this season and 15.0 avg finish at Dover. He has finished 22nd or better in 4 of 5 races this year. In the other race, he was running the top 20 before engine issues. Needs 21st to pay off.
$6k and below
Tyler Hill (34) – Starting 34th. Most weeks, I would lock this play in. However, his brother, Timmy, is racing in the truck they own together. Tyler will be driving for Ray Ciccarelli in a truck ranking outside the top 30. I don’t see him hitting value but he is a punt option if you need one down here.
Sam Mayer (26) – Starting 26th. Similar to Chandler Smith, I’m willing to bet on this young kid’s talent. I’m really surprised he is priced this low when he’s a similar play. The 17-year-old has run 8 ARCA races this year with 2 wins and 7 top 5s. He ran 3 truck races last season, running top 15 in all 3 with 50 laps led at Martinsville. He is in the truck driven earlier this year by Chase Elliott and Chase Purdy, ranking 18th in overall speed. Needs 21st to pay off.
Given how many top 15 starters finish in the top 15, don’t be afraid to forgo big place differential options and focus more on finishing position. I love the $8k to $10k range and hate the $7k range.
Cash Core: Brett Moffitt – Chandler Smith – Sam Mayer
Favorite GPP Plays: Sheldon Creed – Zane Smith – Derek Kraus – Timmy Hill
As always, if you have any questions, feel free to ask in the Fantasy Sports Degens slack chat or hit me up on Twitter (@dsmaybin0308). Good luck!