Welcome to my breakdown for tonight’s Xfinity race at Richmond! Let me start off by saying on this anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, thank you to all of our law enforcement, first responders, and military members for all you do to keep our nation safe. We are fortunate to even be able to enjoy watching these sports we love.

Race History

In the past 6 races here at Richmond, 12-13 of the top 15 finishers started in the top 15 in 5 of those races. There are typically 3-4 drivers leading at least 25 laps with each lap leader starting in the top 7. Fastest laps have been a little more sporadic with 3-5 drivers with at least 20 fast laps. These drivers have all started in the top 12. Remember, however, that this season is a little different, given no qualifying or practice.

Targets

$10k and Above

Kyle Busch (17000) – Starting 29th. Just play him. In 22 Xfinity races at Richmond, he’s completed every lap, has 6 wins, and hasn’t finished outside the top 10 since 2006! Joe Gibbs Racing has dominated this track in both the Xfinityand Cup series. He now has some PD upside as well. Lock and load for me. 

Justin Allgaier (10400) – Starting 16th. Besides Busch, Allgaier is arguably the best short track racer in the series. He has an avg running position of 7.0 or better in 7 of thepast 8 Richmond races, but he did start in the top 10 in all of those races. He also has the most laps led here of the series regulars. He has more PD upside than the others in this range and just as much winning potential.

*Note: Cindric and Briscoe are always in play, but with the strategy I will be employing, I can’t get up to them. Same with Burton. He is in a very strong JGR car, but I like others more. It could come back to bite me, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take.

$8k to $10k

Ross Chastain (9500) – Starting 1st. The polesitter has been a top 3 dominator in 5 of past 6 Richmond races. His history here doesn’t look appealing with only 1 top 10 in 5 races. However, he had bad equipment in those races. In a good car in 2018, he finished 2nd here. Given his restarting prowess and choice of lane, I expect him to lead early until Busch gets up there.

Jeb Burton (9300) – Starting 28th. I feel like I write him up every time he races, but he’s always starting near the back in a quality JRM ride. He has just had terrible luck. In 2018, he raced here for RCR and finished 12th. That’s what we need for him to hit value tonight.

Kaz Grala (8400) – Starting 24th. Grala has impressed in his runs this season, though he hasn’t had many opportunities. He did finish 13th here last spring and like Burton, that’s what he need for him to pay off salary. This is easily a top 5-10 car.

*Note: You could also consider Gragson or Jones if you think they lead early instead of Chastain. Similar to Briscoe and Cindric, they don’t fit my strategy, but they’re always in play. Moffitt is also in consideration for PD upside. I will be fading Haley, Snider, and Annett.

$6k to $8k

Timmy Hill (7800) – Starting 37th. It’s definitely strange to see Hill priced this highly, but he is starting dead last and needs 21st to hit value. He did achieve a top 10 finish in the Truck Series race yesterday which may be beneficial with no practice. In races where he hasn’t had an incident this year, his avg finish is 19th. However, he is at risk to start and park being in the #66 car.

Kyle Weatherman (6400) – Starting 36th. Weatherman leads the series in surplus passing value and top 15 efficiency, despite his weaker equipment.  He’s had terrible luck the past 2 races resulting in finishes outside the top 30. However, starting 36th, he needs a top 25 finish, which he’s done in 6 of 8 races he’s completed this season.

Mason Massey (6100) – Starting 30th. Another potential PD play, but I don’t like it as much.

*Note: Riley Herbst is starting 8th and only needs 7th to hit 5x value. However, he has finished 9th and 10th at short tracks this season. Possible play, but more risky.

Under $6k

Joey Gase (5400) – Starting 31st. There have been some reports that JJ Yeley is in this car, but the entry list and DK both have Gase listed. Whichever driver it is, they are strong plays. This car is a top 20-25 car, and we need a 25thplace finish.

Tommy Joe Martins (4800) – Starting 21st. Martins is starting higher than we are used to, but at this price, we just need him to hold position. This is completely possible as long as he doesn’t have a mechanical issue.

*Note: Other possible plays include McLeod or Bean, but I don’t think they pay off.

Final Thoughts

My strategy will be jam in Kyle Busch, decide who I think leads until he takes over, then fill in with PD upside plays. 6 of the top 10 starters have to either win or obtain dominator points to pay off their salary. Even though most doms come from this range, it’s difficult to predict who they will be. Best bet is Chastain starting on the pole, but any and all are possible.

Cash Core: Kyle Busch, Jeb Burton, Kyle Weatherman

Welcome to my breakdown for tonight’s Xfinity race at Richmond! Let me start off by saying on this anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, thank you to all of our law enforcement, first responders, and military members for all you do to keep our nation safe. We are fortunate to even be able to enjoy watching these sports we love.

Race History

In the past 6 races here at Richmond, 12-13 of the top 15 finishers started in the top 15 in 5 of those races. There are typically 3-4 drivers leading at least 25 laps with each lap leader starting in the top 7. Fastest laps have been a little more sporadic with 3-5 drivers with at least 20 fast laps. These drivers have all started in the top 12. Remember, however, that this season is a little different, given no qualifying or practice.

Targets

$10k and Above

Kyle Busch (17000) – Starting 29th. Just play him. In 22 Xfinity races at Richmond, he’s completed every lap, has 6 wins, and hasn’t finished outside the top 10 since 2006! Joe Gibbs Racing has dominated this track in both the Xfinityand Cup series. He now has some PD upside as well. Lock and load for me. 

Justin Allgaier (10400) – Starting 16th. Besides Busch, Allgaier is arguably the best short track racer in the series. He has an avg running position of 7.0 or better in 7 of thepast 8 Richmond races, but he did start in the top 10 in all of those races. He also has the most laps led here of the series regulars. He has more PD upside than the others in this range and just as much winning potential.

*Note: Cindric and Briscoe are always in play, but with the strategy I will be employing, I can’t get up to them. Same with Burton. He is in a very strong JGR car, but I like others more. It could come back to bite me, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take.

$8k to $10k

Ross Chastain (9500) – Starting 1st. The polesitter has been a top 3 dominator in 5 of past 6 Richmond races. His history here doesn’t look appealing with only 1 top 10 in 5 races. However, he had bad equipment in those races. In a good car in 2018, he finished 2nd here. Given his restarting prowess and choice of lane, I expect him to lead early until Busch gets up there.

Jeb Burton (9300) – Starting 28th. I feel like I write him up every time he races, but he’s always starting near the back in a quality JRM ride. He has just had terrible luck. In 2018, he raced here for RCR and finished 12th. That’s what we need for him to hit value tonight.

Kaz Grala (8400) – Starting 24th. Grala has impressed in his runs this season, though he hasn’t had many opportunities. He did finish 13th here last spring and like Burton, that’s what he need for him to pay off salary. This is easily a top 5-10 car.

*Note: You could also consider Gragson or Jones if you think they lead early instead of Chastain. Similar to Briscoe and Cindric, they don’t fit my strategy, but they’re always in play. Moffitt is also in consideration for PD upside. I will be fading Haley, Snider, and Annett.

$6k to $8k

Timmy Hill (7800) – Starting 37th. It’s definitely strange to see Hill priced this highly, but he is starting dead last and needs 21st to hit value. He did achieve a top 10 finish in the Truck Series race yesterday which may be beneficial with no practice. In races where he hasn’t had an incident this year, his avg finish is 19th. However, he is at risk to start and park being in the #66 car.

Kyle Weatherman (6400) – Starting 36th. Weatherman leads the series in surplus passing value and top 15 efficiency, despite his weaker equipment.  He’s had terrible luck the past 2 races resulting in finishes outside the top 30. However, starting 36th, he needs a top 25 finish, which he’s done in 6 of 8 races he’s completed this season.

Mason Massey (6100) – Starting 30th. Another potential PD play, but I don’t like it as much.

*Note: Riley Herbst is starting 8th and only needs 7th to hit 5x value. However, he has finished 9th and 10th at short tracks this season. Possible play, but more risky.

Under $6k

Joey Gase (5400) – Starting 31st. There have been some reports that JJ Yeley is in this car, but the entry list and DK both have Gase listed. Whichever driver it is, they are strong plays. This car is a top 20-25 car, and we need a 25thplace finish.

Tommy Joe Martins (4800) – Starting 21st. Martins is starting higher than we are used to, but at this price, we just need him to hold position. This is completely possible as long as he doesn’t have a mechanical issue.

*Note: Other possible plays include McLeod or Bean, but I don’t think they pay off.

Final Thoughts

My strategy will be jam in Kyle Busch, decide who I think leads until he takes over, then fill in with PD upside plays. 6 of the top 10 starters have to either win or obtain dominator points to pay off their salary. Even though most doms come from this range, it’s difficult to predict who they will be. Best bet is Chastain starting on the pole, but any and all are possible.

Cash Core: Kyle Busch, Jeb Burton, Kyle Weatherman

Favorite Plays: Justin Allgaier, Ross Chastain, Kaz Grala, Joey Gase

As always, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter or in the Fantasy Sports Degens slack chat. Good luck!

Favorite Plays: Justin Allgaier, Ross Chastain, Kaz Grala, Joey Gase

As always, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter or in the Fantasy Sports Degens slack chat. Good luck!