This week the Monster Energy Series makes the trip to The Magic Mile in New Hampshire. I’m goin into this race ignoring all the previous history of drivers at this track. The new package, coupled with PJ1 compound on multiple grooves, makes this essentially a brand new race. I will try to shine some light on to what to expect through practice analysis, as well as tracks the circuit has visited this season that has a resemblance of New Hampshire. As we’ve seen all season, clean air will rule again this week. I believe whoever gets the jump and gets out front will lead 200+ laps today. You have to get the dominator right to win this week, I will be building all of my lines this week with the 1 dominator strategy. I expect cars to be able to make headway and gain positions. When we look at the results from the next closest track on the circuit, Phoenix, we see that multiple cars were able to make they’re way from the back to the front. So Position Differential is very much in play here! If practice is any indication of how the race will go, we have the potential to see a caution riddled race. All 3 practice sessions this weekend have seen an incident, sending 4 drivers to a back up car (and one to a 2nd backup car, but we will get to that later). If we see an increase of cautions, it will keep more cars on the lead lap than usual, as well as open the door to a ton of varying strategies, amplifying the PD Upside and downside through the field. With the potential of a higher drop out rate, it does give some added upside to the potential punt plays. Let’s dive into some of my favorite plays this week.
Dominators Picks1. Kyle Busch $119002. Martin Truex $115003. Brad Keselowski $10700
Kyle Busch – Once again this week, Kyle looks to be the clear cut dominator choice. Kyle dominated Phoenix earlier this year from the 4th starting position leading 177 laps and turning 105 fastest laps. He also led 101 laps at Richmond, Kyle gets the advantage of starting on the front row Sunday, and we all know how well he gets out of the gate. I predict Kyle to lead the first lap, and a whole lot more! He comes with a heavy price tag, but will pay off!
Denny Hamlin $9700 – Denny comes in this week as the 4th ranked driver on my rankings. Not only was Denny 2nd fasted in final practice, but he has top 5 finishes at both Phoenix and Richmond this year. His 23rd place starting position gives him some massive PD upside with Top 5 potential. He would be 2nd behind Kyle in my rankings, if he wasn’t being forced to start at the rear. Still a solid play if you can squeeze him in!
Kyle Larson $9200 – If you are looking to differentiate yourself from the field in this price range, Larson is a great pivot away from Denny. Larson has turned a corner lately, with 2 top 5’s in his last 3 races. He also has a 6th and 3rd place finish at the 2 other 1 mile tracks this season. His 15th place starting position doesn’t bring as much PD upside as Denny, but his ownership % will be much more attractive!
Clint Bowyer $8400 – Clint is an amazing value this week at a price that is $300 less than last week, on a track type he has historically done well at, after a momentum building 6th place finish at Kentucky! Bowyer has an average PD of +9 on the 3 tracks the series have been to this year similar in size to The Magic Mile. A top 7 out of Bowyer from the 16th starting position is where i would put his upside at, which would easily pay off his salary!
Alex Bowman $8800 – Look, I don’t have to tell you to start Bowman this week. Alex is the chalkiest of all chalk this week starting 37th. He could see 70% ownership. If your playing single entry, you almost gotta take the free space. However, if you are playing multiple lines in GPP tourneys, I strongly suggest coming in way under the field on ownership. He is in Jimmie Johnson’s back up car, after wrecking HIS back up car. This car was set up for Jimmie. I know the crew is gonna work hard to get everything converted over to Bowman’s liking. However, if things aren’t right and Bowman struggles early, he could find himself a lap down quick and unable to deliver on the PD upside. I’m not suggesting a complete fade by any means, but they’re is a lot of money to be made if you go the against him and are right! The fade is a High Risk High Reward play!
Ryan Blaney $8600 – Blaney comes in as my 8th ranked driver on the board. Blaney being priced around Bowman. and his 5th place starting position, will keep him very low owned. I love pivoting to him here. Blaney had the fastest car in final practice. He also finished 3rd at Pheonix this season leading 94 laps. If he gives you a top 5 and Bowman has trouble, you will leap frog 70% of the field!
Chris Buescher $7100 – Buescher has been a PD beast all year! He averages +12 positions in the last 6 races, and DK continues to drop his price, down $200 from last week. Buescher rolls off the grid in 25th position and gives you top 15 Upside at a steal of a price. Pretty easy to see why he comes in at 13th in my rankings this week. However, the downside is, he will be the highest owned in this range.
Austin Dillon $6900 – Dillon is my 14th ranked driver this week. I love Dillon as a pivot off Buescher this week. Starting 21st, he gives you similar PD upside, with a much lower ownership %. Dillon came in 11th fastest in final practice, and has a 6th place finish earlier this year at Richmond.
Ryan Newman $7600 – PD is the name of the game in this price range, and Newman brings you plenty of it! Starting 26th, Newman brings an avg PD of +6 over the last 6 races, as well as 2 Top 10’s in that stretch! I have Newman ranked just behind Buescher and Dillon, only because he is a touch riskier being forced to start in the rear.
Matt Tifft $5300 – Tifft comes in this week at 25th in my rankings. Tifft has an avg PD of +6 at Phoenix, Richmond, and Dover this year, as well as a top 20 at Richmond! Tifft also has 3 top 24 finishes in the last 6 races. Let’s be honest, he’s not gonna surprise you with a Top 10, but with his price tag and a 30th place starting position, he doesn’t need to. Top 25 is realistic and more than enough for $5300.
Thanks for reading! These are just the plays that screamed out to me, check my sheet below for my complete rankings and data!