Track: New Hampshire
Dominator points: 225.75
Fast Laps: 150.5
Laps Led: 75.25
Welcome Degens, we head to New Hampshire this weekend for the race. This has traditionally been a JGR track, someone from that stable or Harvick has won this race since 2015. This breakdown will be different than previous as we have no practice or qualifying to go off of, the first laps on the track will be green flag race runs. I will post my 2-3 favorite plays in each price range in this write-up and a fade or two in each as well. Give me a follow on Twitter @radjer_DFS
Let’s dive into Saturday’s race, as always all data points are from the last 6 races unless noted.
Kevin Harvick (7): Will probably be the highest owned driver in this range, has been the best since the return, and this week may be more of the same. He has won the last 2 races here and 3 of the last 6. He has shown the dominator points that MTJ has shown only led 61 here over the last 6 but has finished races by winning.
MTJ (12): Has the best avg finish in this range at 6.83 and the best DK avg in this range at 78.58, he also won at Martinsville which many consider a smaller NH race. Both flat and cars that can turn the best will prevail. He starts 12th so offers PD upside and dominator potential, he has never won here but has led the most laps here over the last 6 races at 596.
Denny Hamlin (2): Denny like Harvick, has shown to be the best two drivers since the return. Denny has been historically good on short/flat tracks he led 113 laps here last year and a pit call pretty much cost him the race, I expect him to lead early then it will come down to track position and pit road.
Ryan Blaney (12): DK finally priced Blaney were he should be….. well for 1.5 tracks. I don’t like him this week hasn’t led any laps here in the last 6 races and priced at 11.1 I would avoid him this week
This range will be interesting this week. Here are my faves.
Kyle Busch (5): Has the best avg finish of drivers that have raced the last 6 here Kenseth has a better avg but only has 5 races. 5.67 avg finish and 87.92 DK avg. Now Kyle has not been the dominator we come to expect as of late, if there is a track outside of Bristol that he can get it right it is here. If he hits the setup watch out he could run away with this race.
Chase Elliott (3): Chase has been driving really well since the comeback, I’m not high on him based on history here but more what we have seen this year. I will be really light on Chase but he has shown the speed to get the win. His best finish is 5th which won’t get it done for me.
Aric Almirola (1): Starting on the pole, seems like a weekly occurrence that he starts on the front row. I don’t see him holding the lead for long or at all with him sharing the front row with Denny. I think he will garner more ownership than he should but we shall see come Sunday. I will have 0 Almirola in my lineups.
Matt Kenseth (21): Veteran guy and knows how to get around this place, the no practice hurts the communication with the CC. but nonetheless in 5 races here he has 4 tops fives and a 15th he also has 72.35 Dk avg.
Ryan Newman (22): A driver that is tough to pass on a track that is tough to pass at, dial-up some Newman he has an avg finish of 13.33 here in 6 races and finished 6,7 last two here. I like Newman and its price.
JHN (36): Offers some PD upside at a huge discount to Bell. I like him as the guy starting deep in the field that can get us some PD points, as long as he stays out of trouble.
Bubba Wallace (15): Starts too high for me and has not been running well as of late.
The Rest 6k below:
Don’t really see the need to go this low this week with pricing but if need be
Ty Dillon (25): has an avg finish of 19.25 and is cheap worth the price IMO
Daniel Suarez (37): Has run well here in better equipment but starting 37th offers a ceiling and low floor and has been finishing races.
Thanks again for reading and good luck this weekend, jump in the slack chat with us for race day chat and adjustments.