Track: Bristol

Laps: 500

Dominator points: 375

Fast Laps: 125

Laps Led: 250

Welcome back Degens, we head to the great coliseum of Bristol!  This breakdown will be different than previous as we have no practice or qualifying to go off of, the first laps on the track will be green flag race runs.  I will post my 3 favorite plays in each price range in this write-up and a fade or two in each as well.  This race has normally had 3-4 dom type plays in it and lap traffic plays a big role in the race, whoever can navigate that will be successful while leading.  This package is similar to the 2017/2018 package.  Give me a follow on Twitter @radjer_DFS

Let’s dive into Sunday’s race, as always all data points are from the last 6 races unless noted.

10k+:

Faves:

Kyle Busch (7):  Can’t discuss Bristol without Kyle 3 wins in the last 6 here, offers some PD upside, and 81.08 DK average last 6 here tops in the series.  Hasn’t led a lap in a Cup race since Daytona, if there is a track to cure KB18 its this one.

Denny Hamlin (10):  has the best avg finish at 7.83 in this range and won here last summer, offers PD upside and dom potential 

The rest of the group I like as well except one listed below 

Chase (6), Harvick (8), Logano (3) all offer dominator potential and can win this race

Fades:  

Jimmie Johnson (24):   has done well here, just the tag of 10.2k doesn’t get me excited and doesn’t offer the dominator potential the rest of the group does.

8k-9.9k:

My faves in this range

Clint Bowyer (23): Has run well here his price is blah but average finish of 8.17 and DK 56.25 avg is tops not counting Kenseth who has 2 races here.  I will have some bowyer but not much he’s an MME play IMO.

Kurt Busch (12): has an average finish of 10.67 in the last six and has run well here as of late three straight top 10s with a win and second-place finish.  Could go low owned in this group.

Ryan Blaney (4):  Blaney has three straight top 10s here and he was leading this race in 2018 and got caught up in lap traffic wreck which took him out of the race, or it would be five straight top 10s. 55.96 DK avg and has Dom potential.

My fades:

This is tough to decipher both MTJ and Brad don’t have great finishes here as of late 19.83 and 20.50 respectively but both can dominate.  I don’t want to say fade here but if there was one to play it would be brad IMO.

6k-7.9k

This range is full of drivers that offer upside

My Faves

Ryan Newman (17): an average finish of 10.33 and stays out of trouble offers PD upside and top 10 potential 

Erik Jones (15):  too cheap to not play here, has led laps here but seems to have an issue or something happen to take him out of the running. 16 avg finish and 57.71 DK average which is best in this range.

Chris Bell (35):  starting 35th track fits his style and has a good record here in a Gibbs car

My fades:

Aric Almirola (2): Starts too high for me

William Byron (13): better value IMO and hasn’t finished better than 16th here

The Rest 6k below:

Chris Buescher (19):  too cheap and is the best driver in this range.  

Pivots

Poole (34): offers PD if he can stay out of trouble.

Hill (38): starts 38th has a safe floor.

Fades:

Houff, Gase, Currey

Thanks again for reading and good luck this weekend, jump in the slack chat with us for race day chat and adjustments.