Track: Atlanta

Laps: 325

Dominator points: 243.75

Fast Laps: 162.5

Laps Led: 81.25

Welcome back Degens, we head to Atlanta this weekend drivers love this track because it offers great racing!  This breakdown will be different than previous as we have no practice or qualifying to go off of, the first laps on the track will be green flag race runs.  I will post my 3 favorite plays in each price range in this write-up and a fade or two in each as well.  Give me a follow on Twitter @radjer_DFS

Let’s dive into Sunday’s race, as always all data points are from the last 6 races unless noted.

10k+:

This is a small group this week 

Faves:

Kevin Harvick (9):  This is a track Kevin Harvick absolutely loves, you will see him run the bottom and stay there all day.  He has an avg finish of 6.83 and has averaged 107.58 DK points and he’s led 960 laps over the last 6 races 800+ more than the next closest driver.  He also offers PD upside this week.

Kyle Busch (4):  Kyle is a threat at every track he is a pivot from Harvick starting 4th he could get the lead and use clean air and possibly dominate the race.  Numbers aren’t great but are the next best option in the group.  9.6 avg finish and 45.65 DK avg.

Fades:  

Jimmie Johnson (15):   has 2 wins here in the last 6 but hasn’t finished better than 19th here the last 3.  Doesn’t offer the dominator potential like the others, but he has run well this year just don’t like the tag.

8k-9.9k:

This range is stacked IMO

My faves in this range

MTJ (11): Has a strong run car and this race is a long one, ran well last year here finished 2nd and has finished in the top 8 the last 5 races.  Avg finish of 8.5 and 46.96 DK points.  I really like MTJ this week for him to bust through and win.

Chase Elliott (1):  Starts on the pole has had a dominant car in just about every race, could easily lead 100+ laps Sunday, and win.  10.50 avg finish and 43.75 Dk avg.  I think he will be popular this week starting on the pole.

Kurt Busch (12):  Has run well here finished top 8 last 4 years here. And has an avg finish of 7 and DK avg of 53.95 last 6 both best in this group.  His price may make him low owned with chase and MTJ above and brad below.

Also, like Kenseth and Reddick this week.

My fades:

Ryan Blaney (7): doesn’t have great numbers here but is running well this year avg finish 19.25 and 40.56 DK avg.  It could be worth an MME exposure play, based on this year’s performance.

Alex Bowman (8): avg finish of 23.25 and 27.63 DK avg are the worst in this group but has started to show some great racing on these high tire wear tracks.  It could be worth an MME exposure play, based on this year’s performance.

6k-7.9k

My Faves

Erik Jones (14):  too cheap again this week, how Suarez is priced above him is beyond me. Avg finish of 10.67 and 41.5 DK avg.  at 6600 seems like a lock to me opens up some value as well.

Cole Custer (31):  starting 31st will ride the top most likely and Larson has shown the top is a way to get around this place at 6100 offers PD upside at a cheap price

My fades:

Aric Almirola (2): Starts too high for me again this week.

Matt DiBenedetto (21): better value IMO and hasn’t finished better than 26th here.

The Rest 6k below:

Michael McDowell (36): starting 36 at 5200 has the potential to finish high enough to pay off and allows another possible dominator.  I believe it will be industry popular Sunday.

Timmy Hill (38): starts 38th and 5300 is a pivot from McDowell and will find his way into the optimal eventually.

Fades:

Houff, Gase, McCloed, Bilicki IMO

Thanks again for reading and good luck this weekend, jump in the slack chat with us for race day chat and adjustments.