Track: Michigan

Laps: 200 each

Dominator points: 150 each

Fast Laps: 100 each

Laps Led: 50 each

Welcome Degens, we head to Michigan this weekend for some doubleheader action as we race Saturday and Sunday both races 200 laps for 400 miles.  This is Ford’s backyard and they love to dominate this race in front of all the big wigs.  This breakdown will be different than previous as we have no practice or qualifying to go off of, the first laps on the track will be green flag race runs.  I will post my 2-3 favorite plays in each price range in this write-up and a fade or two in each as well.  Give me a follow on Twitter @radjer_DFS

Let’s dive into Saturday’s race, as always all data points are from the last 6 races unless noted.

10k+:

Faves:

Kevin Harvick (3):  Another weekend and we write in Harvick as a top play.  Best avg finish in this range at 6.33 and 57.08 DK points ranks second to MTJ in this range.  2 wins here and a second, that second he got beat off pit road by Bowyer right before the rain came. Harvick will have plenty of Dominator potential for Saturday.

MTJ (12):  MTJ is second in avg finish at 7.83 and tops in DK avg at 60.54.  Offers PD and dominator potential.  Hasn’t won here yet but has 4 top 6 finishes.  Not sure he wins Saturday or get enough Dom points to pay off but can be a pivot from Harvick and Hamlin.

Denny Hamlin (2): Starts second and ranks third in avg finish in this range at 8.83, hasn’t shown the dominance for DK points only 40.58.  Last year Denny had the fastest laps in the race so maybe they found something to continue the dominance and only has 2 top-fives in the last 6 

8k-9.9k:

Kyle Busch (7): What do we do with Kyle, loved him last week blew a tire and was out before the comp caution.  Seems like he can’t get it right without practice, but its Kyle and once he figures it out, watch out he could go on a run.  I prefer him to Sunday than Saturday. Avg finish of 5.83 and 52.13 Dk points best in this range.

Kurt Busch (10): Kurt has an avg finish of 9.5 and 40.04 DK avg in the last 6 starts 10th, he finished the top six 3 of the last 4 races here.  Could go overlooked, and be a low owned pivot type play.

Joey Logano (1):  Logano won the first race here last year, the weather was cooler and limited the passing opportunities and he capitalized by leading 163 laps. He’s got the potential to do it again this weekend I think he will be low owned as people will gravitate to Harvick and Hamlin.

Also, like Chase Elliott, Erik Jones, Matt Dibenedetto.

My fades:

Jimmie Johnson (17):  He has one career win here and has seemed like he has spun every week for the last month, I will pass on him at a track where he has traditionally struggled.  

6k-7.9k

My Faves

Alex Bowman (6):  I’m putting Bowman here for the simple reason he dominated the sister track at Auto Club and his price has dropped a ton.  Consecutive top tens here as well and 31.88 DK avg.  He does start a little high for my liking Saturday may be more of a Sunday play.

Austin Dillon (18):  Dillon is a guy that this track fits also he has a couple of top tens here, and with a win, he can go for a win here again with no issues of not having it work.  He has the best Dk point avg here of 32.5 in this range.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (32):  I like Ricky this week, this track seems to fit him and he starts 32nd so it gives him a high ceiling and a low floor.  If he can stay out of trouble I think a top 12 is doable for him.

My fades:

Matt Kenseth (20):  Crew Chief change and hasn’t done much as of late 0 Kenseth for me this Saturday.

The Rest 6k below:

If you go this low here are my favs

Ryan Preece (35): Finished 7th last year, has a low floor

Thanks again for reading and good luck this weekend, jump in the slack chat with us for race day chat and adjustments, and for Sunday race picks.