Max Muncy came out of nowhere in 2018, literally nowhere as Muncy has essentially been a career minor leaguer. He spent 2017 in AAA for the Dodgers where he hit a whopping 12 home runs in 109 games played in the hitter friendly PCL. Muncy started the 2018 season in AAA once again, but his luck changed when he was called up by the Dodgers on April 17th.

Muncy didn’t do much in April but in May it was the beginning of the Muncy coming out party. He played in 24 or more games in each month for the rest of the season. From May on Muncy also hit at least 5 home runs in each month including 10 in June.

Overall in 2018 Muncy hit .263 (.299 BABIP) with 35 home runs, 75 runs scored and 79 RBIs. Those 35 home runs have the attention of many, but the real question is can he repeat. Last year he had an insane barrel rate of 16.9% and a massive 45.9% hard hit rate according to Baseball Savant.

Now that we’ve talked about some of the good, let’s talk about some cause for concern. When looking at Baseball Savant’s xStats there is a difference in his BA – xBA of .005, his SLG – xSLG of .049 and his wOBA – xwOBA of .014. Those numbers suggest some regression is definitely coming for Muncy. The difference in the slugging and wOBA really make the idea of 35 home run repeat seem difficult.

His xStats aren’t the only concern. His barrel rate, hard hit rate, HR/FB (29.4%) were all career highs and will all be very difficult to duplicate. Muncy also showcased a 27.2% K rate which will not help his overall average.

Muncy saw some decline in his overall stats towards the second half of last season and that could be for many reasons. It could be more of a scouting report for teams to off set Muncy. It could be his platoon differences. It could have been Dave Roberts moving him all over the diamond and not being comfortable. Anyway you look at his 1H numbers were much better than his 2H numbers.

1H- 71 G .271 22 HR 44 R 41 RBI
2H63 G.25313 HR31 R38 RBI

Now we’ve looked at the good and the concerning for Max Muncy. Now it’s time to determine if his draft day value of pick 132.5 is worth the pick. Currently THE BAT and Steamer have Muncy projected for some definite regression.

THE BAT.24129 HR78 R82 RBI
Steamer.23623 HR69 R69 RBI

The projections are still decent, but not pick 132.5 decent. There are players like Carlos Santana (200.5), Justin Smoak (230.78), C.J. Cron (256.72) and even Brandon Belt (310.67) that THE BAT and Steamer have similar projections for in 2019.

I am not saying Max Muncy won’t have a good season. I am more saying I don’t think it’ll be good enough for his draft position. Early in the draft season he was going in the 90’s and we’ve already seen a near 40 spot fall. If the fall continues he may become more draftable. For now though the likely regression, the idea of Dave Roberts possibly platooning him with David Freese and just the general idea of trying to duplicate a career year will have me say the price is wrong for Max Muncy.