Drafting players on bad baseball teams usually isn’t an ideal situation, but also shouldn’t be a deciding factor. Many of the actually good fantasy ball players will drop some in drafts just for the fact they play on bad teams. For those that have been living under a rock…..the Baltimore Orioles are going to be an extremely bad baseball team in 2019. The Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections have the Orioles only winning 57 games this upcoming season. With all that negativity, and rightfully so, there are still some relevant fantasy players to target for your fantasy baseball teams. One such target should be Trey Mancini.
Trey Mancini will be entering his 3rd full major league season in 2019 and will only be 27 years old. He’s coming off a very interesting 2018 season which saw his worst batting average of his career at .242. Since 2013, each season Mancini has been in professional baseball, he has hit no lower than .280. Besides a career low BA, a rather low .285 BABIP could have helped contribute to the low BA, especially considering he had a .352 BABIP in 2017.
Even with the dip in BA, the other counting stats were consistent. Mancini has hit 24 home runs in both 2017 and 2018, his first 2 full seasons in the bigs. He has scored at least 65 runs and driven in at least 58 runs (78 in 2017). Between the minors and the bigs he has hit at least 21 combined home runs in each season since 2015.
All of this looks to be gold. It seems like we can expect a bounce back in BA and consistent power. But, there is actually room for some more nice improvements. For a man with Mancini’s power potential, he doesn’t help himself out much when he had a 55.5% GB rate in 2018 and a 51.7% GB rate in 2017. Even with those massive ground ball rates, he managed a HR/FB rate of 19.8% in 2017 and 20.9% in 2018. Decent HR/FB rates, with massive GB rates and still managing 24 home runs each season.
More signs towards positive regression is a solid barrel rate of 11.8% (league avg 6.1%). He had a really solid hard hit rate of 41.9% (league avg 34.1%) as well. Again, these look great and make sense why a low FB rate of 19.1% in 2018 can still lead to 24 home runs, but imagine if his launch angle was better than 5.5 (league avg 10.9)!!!!
So, to bring it all back we have a player that hits it extremely hard. A player that has a horrible launch angle. A player that still shows solid power even with those 2 major differences in ideal hitting results. Sound like anyone familiar? There are players people love like Franmil Reyes, veteran Ryan Braun or how about 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich.
By no means am I saying that Trey Mancini will be Christian Yelich, but why can’t he be a better Ryan Braun? He’ll be batting 3rd for the Orioles with no one breathing down his neck for playing time. He’ll have speedy Jonathan Villar hitting in front of him and power hitter Mark Trumbo (another late round value) batting behind him. Lastly, he’ll be playing half his games in hitter friendly Camden Yards, plus playing in hitter friendly venues around the AL East (minus the Trop).
|NFBC DC ADP||217.14||219.90||224.79|
I will be in on Trey Mancini. Jeff Erickson of Rotowire sniped me in our TGFBI league (League 2), but I will be determined to get him on other drafts. When looking at draft champions NFBC ADP it seems he is slowly dropping each month and that makes the value even nicer for us. Give me all the Trey Mancini this year and watch when he reaches my bold prediction of hitting 30+ home runs, hitting .280+ and combining for 170+ runs and RBIs.