Welcome to my breakdown of Saturday’s Xfinity Series race at Dover! Similarly to yesterday’s Truck Series race, this race is 200 laps. Also, yesterday, all the chalk plays hit with the exception of Chandler Smith who still wasn’t a bad play after the dom points he accumulated. Let’s take a look at track history…
Fall 2019: 10 of 15 top finishers started in the top 15. 8/14 who started worse than 25th finished there. 4 drivers led 25+ laps (started 1, 2, 3, 8), while 5 had 20+ fast laps. 4 drivers gained more than 10 positions.
Spring 2019: 12 of 15 top finishers started in the top 15. 12 of 15 who started worse than 25th finished there. 2 drivers led 40+ laps (started 1, 4), while 3 had 20+ fast laps. 1 driver gained 10 positions.
Fall 2018: 13 of 15 top finishers started in the top 15. 14 of 16 who started worse than 25th finished there. 4 drivers led 20+ laps (started 1, 2, 3, 7), while 3 had 20+ fast laps. 1 driver gained 10 positions.
Spring 2018: 10 of 15 top finishers started in the top 15. 9 of 16 who started worse than 25th finished there. 3 drivers led 30+ laps (started 1, 4, 6), while 7 had 10+ fast laps. 6 drivers gained more than 10 positions. However, Bell, Reddick, Custer, and Nemechek started in the back, so results were skewed.
Based on the history listed above, 2-3 dominator builds appear to be the way to go. In the past 7 races at Dover, the pole sitter has been a top 3 dominator. Another trend that we notice is that there is little place differential. Given the pricing, there are some obvious PD plays in every price range, making it pretty easy to build strong lineups, but like yesterday, finishing position will likely be the key to success for those plays.
Drivers to Target
$10k and above
Austin Cindric (11300) – Starting 1st. Cindric has been the fastest car all season and the 3rd best passer in the series. In the past 4 intermediate races, he has finishes of 2, 1, 1, 1. He’s also won 5 of the last 6 races this year. He also had an avg running position of 40 in last year’s two Dover races. Starting on the pole, he’s a very strong dominator option.
Justin Allgaier (11000) – Starting 5th. He is easily the most accomplished driver at this track with an avg finish of 3.5, 7 top 5s in the past 8 races, 198 laps led, and an avg running position of 2.5. He also has the best stats at Bristol, the most closely correlated track, where he dominated earlier this year before a late wreck. On tracks less than 1.5 miles in length this season, Allgaier ranks 2nd in speed. Sandwiched between Cindric and Briscoe, I love Allgaier as a hopefully lower owned dominator.
Chase Briscoe (10600) – Starting 10th. I like him less than Cindric and Allgaier, but he deserves a mention. He has won at Darlington and Homestead and a 2nd place finishes at Bristol this year. His avg finish at Dover is 9.7 with 2 top 5s. I’m just not so sure he gets the dom points he needs with so many strong cars starting ahead of him.
Noah Gragson (10100) – Starting 2nd. Though he hasn’t been as good lately, he is a very strong play today. Earlier this year, we won at Bristol. He also dominated at Atlanta and Homestead despite not getting the wins. Gragson has had the fastest laps in every race this season and ranks 1st in speed at tracks less than 1.5 miles long. He will need dom points to pay off, which may be hard to come by with Cindric starting beside him, but he should be fast and can still get his share.
*Note: I think others will target Chastain given the extra PD upside, but he has not had the dominator upside that these other drivers have shown this year. He may hit value with a 2nd place finish, but I’ll take my chances.
$8k to $10k
Justin Haley (9900) – Starting 22nd. This is one of my favorite plays on the slate. Haley is in a top 5-10 car and is way underpriced given the PD upside he provides. He had an avg running position of 6.0 at Bristol before a late issue. He is basically the same play at his teammate Chastain but at a lower price and with more PD. Needs top 8 finish to hit 5x value.
Jeb Burton (9200) – Starting 27th. Things haven’t gone well so far for Burton in the #8 car this year. However, a JR Motorsports car starting towards the back is always a strong play. Burton also has an avg finish at Dover of 12.5. Needs 12th to pay off.
Brett Moffitt (8900) – Starting 28th. Very similar play to Burton. Choosing the right one could be the key to success today. Moffitt is driving a top 15 car but hasn’t shown the ability to run consistently into the top 10. He did race here in the Truck Series race yesterday, which should help given the lack of practice, but I prefer Burton due to the upgrade in equipment. Needs 13th to his value.
Anthony Alfredo (8700) – Starting 26th. Another similar PD play to the two mentioned just above. Alfredo has been very successful in the #21 car when given the opportunity this season with 6 top 10s and 5 top 6 finishes. Needs 13th to hit value.
*Note: Most of my lineups will be featuring at least 2 of these drivers given their high upside. All four appear to be underpriced.
Fades: Myatt Snider, Alex Labbe, Jeremy Clements
$6k to $8k
Brandon Brown (7700) – Starting 21st. This play is riskier than some others, but Brown has overachieved thus far this season with finishes of 13th or better in 8 of 10 intermediate races. He doesn’t have the upside that some others do but has the potential to hit value. Needs 13th to pay off.
Timmy Hill (7600) – Starting 36th. Typically, we can lock Timmy in for a top 25 finish. However, he’s usually priced around $6k or lower. Needs 21st to pay off. Not my favorite play, but starting dead last, he’s worth considering.
Colby Howard (7400) – Starting 33rd. He has 4 top 20 finishes this season, outperforming his equipment on several occasions. Needs 20th to hit value.
Stefan Parsons (7200) – Starting 32nd. Similar play to Howard. Has finishes of 17th and 23rd this year. Needs 20th to pay off.
May consider: Michael Annett, Ryan Sieg, Kyle Weatherman
Fades: Josh Williams, Joe Graf Jr, Bayley Currey
$6k and below
Jeffrey Earnhardt (5500) – Starting 30th. Despite the JD Motorsports equipment, he has consistently ranked in the top 20 all year. I’m surprised he’s not priced in the $7k range. Excluding road courses and plate tracks, he has an avg finish of 16.6 this season. Only needs 23rd to achieve 5x value. A 17th place finish will yield 7x value!
David Starr (5300) – Starting 29th. Starr is a similar play to Earnhardt, with an avg finish of 21.6 this year. In the two races he’s run this #07 car, he has finishes of 13th and 24th. He does rank as the 4th worst passer in the series, however. Needs 23rd to pay off. I don’t think he has as much upside as Earnhardt though.
Jesse Little (4900) and BJ McLeod (4800) – I don’t like these plays that much when Earnhardt and Starr are a few hundred dollars more, but if you need the salary, they should be able to hit value with top 20 finishes.
Getting a takedown today will likely take some luck. There are so many similar plays, making it tough to choose. I would rank dominators in the following order: Cindric, Allgaier, Gragson, Briscoe. It’s not a bad idea to double punt if needed to fit 2-3 of them in your lineup. I also like the use of a cascading core for this slate.
Core: Austin Cindric – Justin Haley – Anthony Alfredo – Jeffrey Earnhardt
Favorite Pivots: Justin Allgaier – Jeb Burton – David Starr
As always, if you have any questions, feel free to ask in the Fantasy Sports Degens slack char or hit me up on Twitter (@dsmaybin0308). I will likely not have an article for Sunday’s Xfinity race but will post my notes in the slack chat. Good luck!