Track: Darlington

Laps: 367

Dominator points: 275.25

Fast Laps: 183.5

Laps Led: 91.75

Welcome, Degens; we head back to Darlington, where we restarted the Nascar season. This is a long grueling race, and the track will go through changes as it goes into the night.  This is also the first race in the first round of the playoffs.  Sixteen drivers start with the chance to make the final four.  We will use the data from the first two races in our sample size, other than that we will use the usual 6 race sample.  Give me a follow on Twitter @radjer_DFS

Let’s dive into Sunday’s race; as always, all data points are from the last six races unless noted.  There’s not a ton of value today as the new procedures are based on finishing position and some of our value is starting higher than we would like given the previous race was a road course.

10k and above:

Chase Elliott (1): Starting on the pole, I like Chase to get dominator points today, I also like that he has the number one pit stall, and the fact that strategy can’t be used may help his crew chief keep him out front.  Ranked well in speed in the 2 races earlier this year.  

Denny Hamlin (2): Starting alongside Chase on the front row and comes in as the Co-championship favorite. I firmly believe he will carry the majority of the ownership from this group.  Had the fastest long run speed in both races earlier in the year, and he won the second race.  Avg finish of 8.33 last 6

Kevin Harvick (8):  Is the other favorite and has the numbers at Darlington to back it up with an avg finish of 3.83 in the last six won the first race here and showed excellent avg speed over the two races.  He also has the best DK avg here the last 6 at 77.38

8k-10k:

Erik Jones (30): This is Jones’s best track, and won this race last year. He will be super chalk given his upside.  Avg finish of 5.4 here last 6 and finished 5th and 8th in the two races earlier this year his 59.8 DK avg is also best in this range.  

MTJ (6): This race fits MTJ, starting during the day and ending at night.  Hasn’t shown a ton since he won here in 2016.  But he has made the final four 3 straight years so he knows how to get it done come playoff time.

Brad Keselowski (5):  will go overlooked today given all the drivers around him, and he’s not the sexy pick, but he will take care of his stuff and be there at the end.  Has an avg finish here of 7.83 last 6 and 51.25 DK avg.  he had speed to hang with the top guys in the two races earlier in the year.  

Others I like:​

Joey Logano (13)

Kurt Busch (16)

Jimmie Johnson (22)

6k-8k:

Tyler Reddick (24):  Seems like I say this every other week about Reddick; this track fits his style, and starting deep in the filed gives upside and value. We need avg finish of 10th in the two races earlier in the year.  And has a 49.0 DK avg.

Ryan Newman (31): Cheap and offers lots of PD upside.  Finished 14/15 in the two races here earlier in the year. If he gets that tonight he will give us what we need.

6k and below:

J.J. Yeley (37): is my punt play of the night, he finished 28th in both races earlier in the year, just need a duplicate performance at his tag.

Others:

Ross Chastain (34)

Ryan Preece (35)