The NFBC Main Event started this past weekend, completing five drafts and giving us a new ADP to keep an eye on during the final weeks of fantasy baseball draft season. We love Main Event ADP as it is the creme de la creme of fantasy drafting, where the biggest money is spent, so in theory, the ADP should be some of the more critical ADP in play. The ADP will not always compare to a 10 or 12 team league, but the point of utilizing the Main Event ADP is to see what players are getting bigger bumps or are falling further in the draft compared to previous drafts. At least, that is one primary reason I use the ADP. All about knowing when you may need to “reach” to get your guys.
In today’s blurb, I will be highlighting a handful of hitters that stood out with different ADPs compared to the Draft Champions drafts that took place in March. Some are for obvious reasons, while others are just proof that the player is more valuable than some earlier drafters realize. More than these players have some differing ADPs, but this will get you started and maybe dig into the ADP some more.
|ME ADP||DC ADP|
C.J. Cron, 1B, COL
Cron’s ADP has been climbing since he signed a minor league deal with the Rockies. Most figured it would be more than “typical Rockies” for Cron not to make the team and start at first base. On Sunday, the Rockies announced they were purchasing Cron’s minor league contract, lining things up for a monster season in Colorado.
In 2018 Cron played in 140 games (most of his career) and hit 30 home runs. The following season he only played in 125 games but belted 25 home runs. Those two seasons were in Tampa Bay (a pitcher’s park) and Minnesota. Now he heads to Coors Field and should be ready to mash. Since 2018 Cron has had a maxEV of at least 112 mph, a barrel rate of at least 11.9%, a hard-hit rate of at least 34.6%, and an HR/FB% of at least 19.5%. Cron’s ATC projection is for only 125 games but is strong at .262-29-67-81-1. If Cron can stay healthy and get closer to 140 games, watch up for 35+ home runs and all the fun that Coors Field can bring to fantasy production.
Andres Gimenez, 2B/3B/SS, CLE
Gimenez continues to jump up draft boards since he was traded to Cleveland and has been hitting this spring. The main concern I still have is Gimenez’s spot in the batting order. When I look through Mike Kurland’s spring training lineup tracker, Gimenez is hitting towards the bottom of the order more often than not. After the lineup situation, my other concern is that Gimenez does not have a stolen base this spring; in fact, he has not even attempted to steal a base. He is hitting .313 this spring with two home runs but no steals. Gimenez is being drafted this high for his stolen base upside, nothing else. I do not mind the gamble, especially in an overall like the ME, but beware, the floor is very low if Gimenez struggles.
Maikel Franco, 3B, BAL
It was only a matter of time until Franco signed a contract. The concern was always where would he sign and if that place would have a starting job for Franco. Thank goodness for all us fantasy fans that Franco signed with the Orioles and should get most of the starts at third base. Franco is coming off a strong 2020 where he hit .278 with eight home runs. Batting average has always fluctuated in his career, but power rarely has as Franco has hit at least 17 home runs in each season from 2016-19. He is even a low strikeout guy with a K%, usually around 16%.
Franco is a free swinger that makes a lot of contact, but sometimes that contact is not great as he is swinging at pitches out of the zone with limited production upside. With that being said, he is still in an excellent spot for 2021 with the Orioles. Most projection sites have Franco playing 113 games, hitting around 20 home runs and hitting around .250. I think those projections are a lovely floor with much more upside for Franco if things start to click with the Orioles the way they did with the Royals in 2020. His ADP should continue to rise another 20-30 spots by opening day.
Jonathan India, 2B/3B, CIN
I highlighted India last week with the discussions of Eugenio Suarez moving to SS. With the move, India may slot in as the everyday 2B. This is not official, but signs are pointing in this direction. India impressed at the alternate camp in 2020 and is smashing this spring, hitting .344 with two home runs. Indian brings double-digit home run and stolen base upside and is worth a last-round pick for the upside he could bring in a pretty good offense.
Eddie Rosario, OF, CLE
The Rosario ADP was not a significant bump, but I wanted to highlight it as a pick that moves a bit because the player is better than most think. The 14 pick bump is about one round, but that may be what it takes to get your guy. Rosario is suitable for a .270 or so average, close to if not more than 30 home runs, with solid counting stats. He is extremely consistent and now moves to Cleveland’s ballpark that favors lefty power to the right field. Rosario does not get the love he deserves as he does not steal bases but draft those elsewhere when we are talking around pick 100.
Nick Senzel, OF, CIN
Senzel is shooting up draft boards, and rightfully so, as the Reds have said, he is an everyday player this season. Senzel should be the regular CF, but I would not be shocked if he sees some time in the infield and maybe gaining some more flexibility. The appealing thing with Senzel, besides a fantastic draft price, is that he has a potential 20/20 floor if he stays healthy. The power and speed are legit, the ballpark is excellent to hit in, and the lineup will be pretty potent. He has had a solid spring, and I look for that to continue. If you like Senzel, you better strike quick as the price tag should continue to rise. Don’t draft Trent Grisham when you can draft Nick Senzel much later.