Not a bad start to the 2021 season as we have back to back winning weeks. Moving on to the West Coast swing, we begin to have opportunities to see recent form play a part in player selection. As a course history guy, I’ll still rely heavily on CH while using some current form to make picks and feel even more comfortable with them.
We’ll lose Amateurs this year at the AmEx, which isn’t that big of a deal, certainly not as much of an impact as it is on AT&T Pebble Beach. We’ll also lose the Palmer course in the rotation, a course where guys go LOW! A loss of Amateurs and a course also leads to a 36-hole cut, whereas in the past, guys were playing three rounds before facing a cut. La Quinta and the Nicklaus Stadium course remain, with the Stadium course being used over the weekend.
Let’s jump in and see if we can make it three straight winning weeks.
Scottie Scheffler ($25 to win $500): I was lucky to grab this before the Rahm WD changed Scottie’s number. In this field, I’m good with Scottie at this number.
Matthew Wolff ($25 to win $500): First, look at Wolff in 2021 but not overly concerned. We know his ability and should feel good about his chances in the desert.
Sam Burns ($25 to win $1,375): As a CH guy, you’ve got to LOVE Burns’s chances this week. He can go low and has played very well here. Great value in a guy who should win in 2021.
Si Woo Kim ($25 to win $1,375): Looked good last week at SONY. He “Pops” in all my models….This number is too high for a guy who can win any week he tees it up.
Cameron Davis ($25 to win $1,750): T29 and T28 here in his two appearances. Decent for a young guy who is just waiting to break out. The history here shows that many winners have a BIG betting number headed into the week….I think we’ve got three here with Burns, Kim, and Davis.
Sam Burns ($25 to win $138): CH truther in me had to do this here…
Lanto Griffin ($25 to win $138): A guy who has plenty of win equity but much prefer a T10 as a safer play.
Brian Harman ($25 to win $163): Not a great SONY but a made cut. Also, excellent course history….The Georgia Bulldogs on TOUR are HOT….Why not take a stab here?
Charlie Hoffman ($25 to win $200): Good start to 2021 at SONY. Not great CH here, but hoping the loss of Amateurs helps Charlie….
Brendan Steele ($25 to win $200): Love the play this week. Steele gets hot and can string together multiple good starts. 5 straight made cuts here with a T6 in 2017.
Head 2 Head:
Sungjae Im ($42 to win $40) vs. Tony Finau: As you’ll see, I’m picking on Tony Finau. I said it when I bet him at TOC…He can’t close! My only issue this week is the lesser field may boost his confidence. If it comes to a putting contest, he stands no chance….I’m on IM
Scottie Scheffler ($42 to win $40) vs. Tony Finau: See above….This one seems like a tap in!
Rickie Fowler ($40 to win $52) vs. Abraham Ancer: I’ll take the plus money play here. Abraham isn’t as good as many in the golf world think. Hell of a Presidents Cup put him on a pedestal that he’s yet to live up to….Only my opinion….It seems like this is a coin flip!
First Round Leader (FRL): My book has been tardy on posting FRL…As soon as I have options, I’ll post any that I play.
As always, feel free to fire any questions at me on Twitter @kevinsdelight
We’re positive +$857 after two weeks and hope to have another nice week. We have $374 in play to start the event…