Last week Lucas and Bubba went over their Top 30 starting pitchers, some top targets and more. This week the guys wrap up their starting pitcher previews. In the starting pitching primer part 2 the guys will go over their rankings in 31-60, more targets, fades, later round targets and more. Also, don’t forget to check out the other position primers as you get ready for fantasy baseball draft season.
Overall Rankings (updated from time to time)
|Lucas (@bieryplox33)||Bubba (@bdentrek)|
|31- Corey Kluber||31- Zack Wheeler|
|32- Frankie Montas||32- Lance Lynn|
|33- Zac Gallen||33- Corey Kluber|
|34- Trevor Bauer||34- Frankie Montas|
|35- Lance Lynn||35- Eduardo Rodriguez|
|36- Max Fried||36- Max Fried|
|37- Mike Minor||37- Zac Gallen|
|38- Madison Bumgarner||38- Mike Soroka|
|39- Jake Odorizzi||39- Madison Bumgarner|
|40- Luke Weaver||40- Robbie Ray|
|41- Eduardo Rodriguez||41- Jesus Luzardo|
|42- Matthew Boyd||42- Dinelson Lamet|
|43- Hyun-Jin Ryu||43- Kyle Hendricks|
|44- Robbie Ray||44- Hyun-Jin Ryu|
|45- Zack Wheeler||45- Matthew Boyd|
|46- Shohei Ohtani||46- Sean Manaea|
|47- Jesus Luzardo||47- Andrew Heaney|
|48- Julio Urias||48- Marcus Stroman|
|49- Dinelson Lamet||49- David Price|
|50- David Price||50- Mike Minor|
|51- German Marquez||51- Kenta Maeda|
|52- Caleb Smith||52- Mitch Keller|
|53- Brendan McKay||53- Griffin Canning|
|54- Aaron Civale||54- Jake Odorizzi|
|55- Jose Urquidy||55- Joe Musgrove|
|56- A.J. Puk||56- Aaron Civale|
|57- Masahiro Tanaka||57- Caleb Smith|
|58- Sean Manaea||58- Dustin May|
|59- Adrian Houser||59- Chris Archer|
|60- Jeff Samardzija||60- Sandy Alcantara|
Top Targets in Rankings 31-60
Lucas- Aaron Civale won’t wow any fantasy manager with K’s but he might be the next of a long line of Cleveland Indians pitchers who have had recent success. His ADP of 266 this month is more than fair for a guy who flatout dominated 3 levels in 2019.
Mike Minor going at ADP 180 seems like a value to me, as Minor looks to build upon his successful 2019 campaign, where he did 208.1 IP of a 3.59 ERA/1.24 WHIP with 200 K’s to 68 BB’s. Solid innings stabilizer.
Bubba- My top targets for this range are ranked right next to each other at 35 and 36. Eduardo Rodriguez and Max Fried will be on many of my teams this season. ERod finished 2019 as one of only 15 pitchers to throw for more than 200 innings. Over those innings he struck out 203 batters, won 19 games and had a 3.81 ERA/4.10 xFIP. Rodriguez will be turning 27 this season and looks to keep building on his improvements from 2019. Fried’s name is on the tip of many fantasy players tongue’s this preseason. I can’t blame them. Fried finished 2019 with 165 innings and that should allow him to go at least 190 innings in 2020. He won 17 games last season (I know wins aren’t a stat to rely on) and struck out 173. Some may point out that Fried finished with a 4.02 ERA, but he had an outstanding 3.32 xFIP creating one of the differences in ERA and xFIP in 2019. Fried is a heavy ground ball pitcher, yet gives up a decent amount of home runs. If those home runs slow down some then watch out as Fried has Top 20 upside.
2 Late Round Sleepers
Lucas- Wade Miley is a guy that absolutely dominated the first 5 months, posting a superb 3.06 ERA before he totally imploded in September (16.68 ERA in September.) Many believe that Miley was tipping his pitches in September, if that’s the case, working with his old pitching coach Derek Johnson should help. I’m really interested in Miley given his cheap cost (ADP 464).
After moving to Milwaukee, Jordan Lyles increased the use of his breaking ball to great results, posting a 2.45 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 58.2 innings. Lyles is primed to continue his success in a more neutral pitching environment, now that Texas will be shifting to an air conditioned dome for their home venue.
Bubba- When going into the deeper rounds, there are some nice arms to target. Some that even just missed my Top 60. Dylan Bundy is a popular name and for good reason. The move from Baltimore to Anaheim should be a major help. Bundy was much better than people think even in that home run haven and showcased those goods in the 2H. Heavy sinker ball pitcher, Steven Matz is another strong target. Matz struggled to start 2019 but had a great 2H. His 2H numbers showcased a 3.52 ERA and a .294 wOBA. Look for Matz to continue that 2H success in 2020. A few others to keep in mind are the consistent veteran arms of Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, the new Ranger Kyle Gibson and then Matt Shoemaker. There are a lot of intriguing values later in the draft, but always do carry some risk.
Top Later Round Fades
Lucas- Similar to Kopech/Puk above, Jesus Luzardo has some serious workload concerns, but the price tag (ADP 126) makes me worry he will not return value, even if he’s electric on a per inning basis. As a pivot, I’d much rather roster Lance Lynn in that same range.
Dinelson Lamet is another guy where I can’t pay the price tag, as he only has 2 pitches and hasn’t shown a helpful WHIP (1.26 in 2019). There are other K only guys available much cheaper. Without a 3rd pitch, I can’t trust Lamet.
Bubba- Shohei Ohtani will not be on any of my teams this season. There still is not a timetable for when Ohtani will be back on the mound and once he is back we do not know just how many innings he will throw. In leagues where Ohtani is pitcher only I will be 100% out. My other major fade in this range is German Marquez. He was my top fade last year and that worked out in a big way. Well, I will continue to preach to NEVER COORS when it comes to starting pitchers. Marquez threw 174 innings last season which was 22 innings less than 2018. He also put up a nice 4.76 ERA and 1.50 HR/9. I will be passing on all Marquez again in 2020.
Minor Leaguer/MLB Debut Target for Redraft
Lucas- In terms of stuff, Michael Kopech may already be close to the best pitchers in the league, as he can flirt with triple digits and has excellent movement on his pitches. We have no idea what his workload will be, but he’s an all format guy that you must roster.
AJ Puk is another guy I’m really interested in as well, given his two 70 grade pitches, the slider and the fastball… Oakland will do everything they can to develop him as a starter, as he’ll provide the team the most value in that role.
Bubba- Dustin May is one of my favorite targets at this point in drafts based on value and potential overall production. Jesus Luzardo is a great pick, but you are paying a premium for very limited innings. AJ Puk’s limited innings are slightly concerning as well, but both A’s could end up being great if they are used properly. After these big 3 I will look at taking a late round dart on MacKenzie Gore. The almost 21 year old lefty was outstanding in the minors in 2019. He blew through High A with a 1.02 ERA in 79.1 innings, and did ok with a 3.82 xFIP in 29.2 innings in AA. He wasn’t lights out in AA, but still struck out a ton and is really close to getting his chance. We saw how the Padres fast tracked Chris Paddack last season and the same could happen for Gore. If Gore gets the Paddack treatment he could be a major fantasy impact in 2020.