I outlined my targets earlier in the off-season, wanted to touch on some of my biggest fades/bust candidates. Some of the guys below are fades, others are busts. At least knowing why I am avoiding them is could be crucial information when navigating draft day 2020, whenever that is due to the current pandemic.
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C1, Gary Sanchez, NFBC March/April ADP 82:
Sanchez is an incredibly talented player, easily capable of placing within the top 50 overall while hitting for massive power, but there are too many warts to invest a top draft pick in Sanchez. Sanchez has had a tough time staying on the field, as he’s only averaged 98 games over the past 2 seasons. When he is healthy, he provides massive power for a catcher, but is a batting average liability, hitting well below the Mendoza Line in 2018 and hitting only .232 in 2019. I’ll pass on Sanchez, invest this pick in something else and buy a catcher much cheaper.
C2, Travis D’Arnaud, NFBC March/April ADP 243:
Outside of a short stretch in 2019 with Tampa, D’Arnaud hasn’t really helped out fantasy owners (in fairness his 2017 with NYM was adequate), yet is being drafted inside the top 250 overall. He could be adequate as a part time C in Atlanta, as they usually split their C playing time fairly equally, but I am out at the elevated price given his poor track record. There are valuable players available at 250 or so overall, and I would rather have those players and take Kurt Suzuki 50+ picks later.
1B, Pete Alonso, NFBC March/April ADP 32:
The extremely heavy price tag and lack of BA is my main concerns with Alonso. Though he will be a good bet for 40+ HR’s over a typical season, I am avoiding the one trick power pony here. A nice player, but I would rather spend capital elsewhere this early on, when you can find guys like Schwarber/Franmil/Khris Davis eons later who could do some of the same stuff.
2B, Gleyber Torres, NFBC March/April ADP 28:
Other than hitting in a spectacular Yankees’ lineup and being 23 and a former uber prospect, it’s hard to find the big selling points for Gleyber, given his 2nd round cost in 15 NFBC leagues. He isn’t really a candidate to stand out in BA or steal bases, and will regress some off his torrid power pace from 2019, so I just think the market is overreacting to the ‘next big thing’ when it’s not worth it for Gleyber. The skillset isn’t worth your 2nd round pick in my opinion.
3B, Yuli Gurriel, NFBC March/April ADP 142:
A batting average producer, Gurriel is coming off a 31 HR campaign in 2019, which is equal to the number of HR’s he hit in 2017 + 2018 combined. I don’t think that the power is repeating, however the market appears to project more power than me. I doubt Yuli will flop, given the potency of the Houston lineup and his elite hit tool, but I am fading him inside the top 150.
SS, Corey Seager, NFBC March/April ADP 143:
Seager is still a supreme talent in some folks’ eyes, but I am not sure he can reach the heights he found in 2016/2017. He has been dealing with a rash of injuries, and I do worry injuries may creep back in or prevent Seager from hitting his previous heights. Seager is no doubt a good hitter, but I’m not into buying a guy with no speed and no guarantees to help in the BA category. I think a much cheaper Paul DeJong could easily outperform him. I’d rather keep waiting on filling SS or MI, instead of locking in Seager this early.
MI, Garrett Hampson, NFBC March/April ADP 193:
I have come full circle on Hampson, really loving his OBP’s he posted as a minor leaguer (regularly north of .390 OBP), but with the elevated price inside the top 200 recently, I am out for PT concerns, as well as performance concerns. We all know Hampson was dreadful last year outside of September, and I just don’t trust the Rockies to unleash Hampson full time anywhere. I think expecting 20+ steals from Hampson could be a very risky bet, but it does come with a potentially huge reward as he plays in Coors. Really hope I am wrong on this one, as I am heavily invested in dynasty leagues.
OF, Austin Meadows, NFBC March/April ADP 36:
Fading a player of Meadows’ calibre could absolutely blow up in my face, but I can’t justify the cost for a guy who is highly inefficient on the basepaths (12/19, 63% success rate) and a guy who has had some significant injury issues in the past. Meadows is a stud bat, but I just can’t justify taking him this early when the steals could disappear and he hasn’t been as durable as some of the other studs in this range like Javy Baez or Xander Bogaerts.
OF, Victor Robles, NFBC March/April ADP 72:
My argument against Robles is very simple, he’s not a very good hitter. He will probably be fine to roster every week, hitting double digit HR’s and stealing enough bases to keep you afloat, but I want much more than that picking inside the top 75.
OF, Andrew Benintendi, NFBC March/April ADP 116:
I have no idea why Benintendi is being drafted this high when a guy like Adam Eaton is available many, many picks later. Both should provide a nice base of runs scored and provide teens HR/SB totals. Seems like an overpay here at 116 for the chance at 15/15.
OF, Oscar Mercado, NFBC March/April ADP 121:
Mercado is a prime example of the elevated cost of stolen base guys. Mercado has never done much in the power department and isn’t a massive steals threat. This price just seems a bit rich to me, I’d rather invest in ol’ reliable in Michael Brantley.
OF, Nomar Mazara, NFBC March/April ADP 243:
Mazara, a player long overrated based on prospect hype, is finally cheap enough to be mildly interesting, but there’s still a cost associated with Mazara. There are no statistics that indicate that Mazara will improve and it was evident to me that he’s incredibly mediocre when A) Texas started platooning him in a lost season B) traded him for a human named Steele Walker. Pass for me.
Util, Mallex Smith, NFBC March/April ADP 182:
Mallex, like Robles, is a terrible real life hitter, but Mallex is actually much, much worse. I don’t think Mallex will continue as a starter much longer, as his days are numbered as a starting OF. If he doesn’t play, and you fail to get the 35+ steals you expected from Mallex, your shot at the money in a roto league could be in limbo.