Fanshield 500 DraftKings breakdown 2020

Laps:312

Dominator points: 234

Fast Laps: 156

Laps Led: 78

We wrap up the west coast swing with our trip to Phoenix Raceway, this track will host the NASCAR championship in November so this will be a huge race for teams as they test what works and what doesn’t, as they prepare for that.  Last week Alex Bowman took the checkered flag with a dominating performance.  He showed dominate speed all weekend, will team Hendrick continue to flex as we wrap up the west coast swing? We shall see.  NASCAR took away the downforce on the cars and this package will race closer to what we saw in 2017 and 2018.

Let’s dive into Sunday’s race, as always all data points are from the last 6 races unless noted.

10k+:

Kyle Busch (10):  Comes in as the top dog and rightfully so.  He has dominated here as of late his worst finish is 7th, has an average finish of 2.67, 3.67 average running position, 93.13 DK point average and 2 wins.  Let’s just say he knows how to get around this place and this week he offers PD potential to go along with the dominator points

MTJ (12): will fall to the rear on the pace laps due to an engine change, Normally I never fully fade guys falling to the rear cause their ownership % drops and makes them a viable play I just feel like there are better plays this weekend.  He does sport an average finish of 6.83 and 50.04 DK points.

Kevin Harvick (2):  IS one of my favorite plays this weekend he has 9 career wins at this track and sports a 5.17 avg finish and 59.21 DK average.  HE was also second fastest in the 15,20,25 lap averages and has a prime starting spot.  He is my favorite play in the price range.

Joey Logano (13): Logano burned me last week thought he would lead some laps but never found his way up front.  Phoenix is not one of his better tracks I will fade Logano this week best finish in the last 6 is 9th and an average finish of 19.67 and 35.63 DK.  He did show some speed in practice however third fastest in the 15,20 and 5th in the 25 lap averages.

Brad Keselowski (14): is my second favorite play in this range he showed great speed in practice tops in the 15,20,25,30 lap averages, has a decent Dk average of 52.38 with an average finish of 11.17 here.  I will have shares of BK2 this weekend.

Denny Hamlin (3): bounced back last week after a rough week at Vegas, starting third I will probably not have any shares here doesn’t seem to offer what I need out of him this weekend he has win in the last 6 here so he could duplicate that but just hasn’t been his track as of late.  Average finish of 11.33 and 65.21 DK average.  He will be a pivot from the rest of the group.

8k-9.9k:

My faves in this range

This is a tough range with nobody really sticking out to me 

Ryan Blaney (5): has started out strong this year he was running second last week with 3 laps left and had a tire go down, he has an average finish here of 16 and a 34.5 DK average given his start to the year he’s in play I probably won’t pull the trigger.

Chase Elliott (1): has run well here finished 3rd and 2nd here in this package but also has had duds here 39,14,23 place finishes his last three.  Sitting the pole, I could see him lead lots of laps this weekend and be in contention.  Seemed like he need more from his car in practice but then got the pole so maybe they made some good changes.  15.5 avg finish and 43.92 dk avg.

Kyle Larson (4): has the best average finish in this group of 12.17 and has finished top 6 his last 3 races here so he could be a good pivot, he starts a bit too high for me to play him I would rather try to spend up if at all possible.  

Erik Jones (11):  Jones is the last guy I will consider in the range with an average finish of 12.33 and 45.46 DK average starting 11th offers a bit of value.

My fades:

Alex Bowman (8) starts to high with an average finish of 25.25 

Jimmie Johnson (21): could be a target with his starting spot but with an average finish of 16.50 and didn’t show much in practice is a fade for me.

William Byron (17) and Kurt Busch (7)

6k-7.9k

My Faves

Clint Bowyer (18); has run well here and has an average finish of 14.33 offers a bit of value to play here.

Aric Almirola (6):  Has the best avg finish in this range at 10.50, starting 6th will go overlooked and will be a good GPP type play was top 5 in practice in the 15,20,25,30 lap averages.

Austin Dillon (30): messed up his qualifying lap and will start 30th to much value here not to play has an average finish of 17.00here lock and load him n this price range.

Ricky Stenhouse (19): I’m nervous to put him here with the low downforce package he could go back to his usual ways of being Wrecky average finish her of 16.67 and 42.58 DK average makes him an ok GPP target.

Others I like based on starting spot to differentiate from the field:

Chastain (24); Chris Buescher (23); Ty Dillon (25)

Reddick (29) I will be fading this isn’t one of his better tracks.

Christopher Bell (15): probably starts a bit high but has had lots of success here in the xfinity series and has the gibbs backing which they have run well here.

My fades:

Bubba Wallace (27)

The Rest 6k below:

I don’t think you need to punt this low this weekend but if you wanted to here’s a list

McDowell (22) seems to be steady but starts to high IMO

Timmy Hill (38) starts dead last if he rides around could pick up a few spots to pay off

Thanks again for reading and good luck this weekend, jump in the slack chat with us for race day chat and adjustments.