Track: Homestead

Laps: 267

Dominator points: 200.25

Fast Laps: 133.5

Laps Led: 66.75

Welcome back Degens, we head to Homestead this weekend, this formerly was the championship race so teams brought their best equipment, this weekend it’s just a regular-season race but should still offer some great racing!  This breakdown will be different than previous as we have no practice or qualifying to go off of, the first laps on the track will be green flag race runs.  I will post my 3 favorite plays in each price range in this write-up and a fade or two in each as well.  Give me a follow on Twitter @radjer_DFS

Let’s dive into Sunday’s race, as always all data points are from the last 6 races unless noted.

10k+:

Faves:

Kevin Harvick (7):  has the best avg finish here over the last 6 races at 2.83 and Dk points at 70.08.  In the last 6 hasn’t finished worse than 4th.  It also offers some PD upside, along with a series-best 278 laps led and 168 fastest laps over the last 6.

Kyle Busch (4):  Kyle is second in laps led and fast laps to Harvick, 226/162 respectively, and comes in at a cheap 10.1k in Kyle standards.  Now he hasn’t been dominating this season yet, but he could pop anytime and won this race last year.

MTJ (6): has finished top 2 the last three races here winning 3 years ago he also offers dominator potential with 204 led and 122 fast laps.

Fades:  

None: I feel any of the other three guys in this range offer pivots from the above three.  If there was one guy I won’t be playing it will Be Denny Hamlin, he starts pole and they will have a comp caution and his pit stall sucks this week due to his poor finish last week.

8k-9.9k:

My faves in this range

Brad Keselowski (3): Doesn’t have a great history here but Penske along with Hendrick has been the fastest teams this year and seems to be there at the end when it matters most 11.83 avg finish and 40.54 DK avg

Chase Elliott (1):  Starts on the pole has had a dominant car in just about every race, could easily lead 100+ laps Sunday, and win.  10.50 avg finish and 43.75 Dk avg.  I think he will be popular this week starting on the pole.

Clint Bowyer (12):  Led laps at Atlanta but had tires issues, I could see him being sneaky play this week finished 6/8 last two years at this track.

My fades:

Christopher Bell (36): offers great PD upside but a 9.3k tag is too steep for me to roster bell.

6k-7.9k

My Faves

Tyler Reddick (24):  Has been running well all year, this track fits his style and he won the last two Xfinity championship races here, so he knows how to get around this joint.

Ryan Newman (14):  Steady Newman is solid this week avg finish of 12.5 and 39.17 DK points is a good return for his tag

My fades:

William Byron (22): Horrible history here and has struggled as of late

The Rest 6k below:

Michael McDowell (30): Too cheap again this week this is as low as I would go personally.

Fades:

Houff, Gase, McCloed, Bilicki, Yeley IMO

Thanks again for reading and good luck this weekend, jump in the slack chat with us for race day chat and adjustments.