Laps:200

Dominator Points

Fast Laps:

Laps Led:

Well racing season is finally here, and as always we kick it off with the Daytona 500, Nasar’s Superbowl.  Every team brings their best to Speedweeks to win this crown jewel of Nascar. Any data I provide will consist of the last six Daytona 500s.  As always stacking the back is the way to attack these races especially in cash games. I will give some of my faves and my fades in price groups for Sundays race.

I expect manufacturers to work together and keep a tight alliance until the last few laps of each stage and the race, then its every man for themselves for the points payout.  Ford started this trend a few years back at the super speedways and they dominated, then Chevy caught on and started to work together to form their own group. The smallest faction is the Toyotas, I think they will dictate who wins the race depending on who they work with.  We will see this early on as the first 4 spots in the outside lane are Chevys and the second through fifth rows on the inside are Fords (Stenhouse or Bowman will start on the front of the inside row). Here is the breakdown for each manufacturer

Chevy-19

Ford-16

Toyota -5

Only 3 Drivers have a sub 10th place finish in the 3 superspeedway races since they took the restrictor plates off.

Ryan Newman: 4.7

Aric Almirola: 6.7

Corey Lajoie: 8.0

Let’s Dive in:

10k+ anyone in this group is playable:

Joey Logano (3): will be a fade for me will offer some dominator points but the upside is limited due to his high starting spot, he has an average finish of 5.33 in his last 6 and averaging 49.38 DK points which won’t be enough to payoff.

Denny Hamlin (21): Hamlin along with Elliott will be the highest owned drivers in this group. HE has the best average finish in his last 6 here at 4.67, lock and load Hamlin who is also the defending 500 champion.   52.46 DK Avg

Brad Keselowski (9):  If you decide to play anyone in the top 10 its BK2, he has struggled here in his last 6 with an average finish of 22.50 but he looked strong in the clash.  22.50 Avg Finish; 31.58 DK Avg

Chase Elliott: (25): is the other chalk play of the group with Denny,  I believe Denny will garner more ownsership so chase could be a nice pivot.  25.25 Avg Finish; 29.31 DK Avg.

8-9.9k:

Faves: 

Kyle Busch (28): offers great PD upside and finished 2nd last year here, he has been boom or bust at the 500 in the last 6 but is searching for that elusive first 500 victory.   17.40 Avg Fin; 33.60 DK Avg

Kevin Harvick (10): is the play over BK2 if you would like the savings, looked strong in his duel but the late caution shuffled him back. 16.33 Avg Fin; 35.83 DK Avg

MTJ (15):  has not been good at Daytona 500 averaging a finish of 19.83 the last 6 but offers some PD and probably low ownership. 19.83 Avg Fin; 18.79 DK

Blaney (27): will fall to the rear cause of a wreck in the duel that forced him into his backup car, he led 118 laps in the 2018 500 so he knows how to get around this place and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him win this race Sunday. 19.60 Avg Fin; 20.50 DK

Kurt Busch (18):  Won the 2017 500, and then finished outside the top 25 the last two races here, but based on starting spot he is in play. 16.60 Avg Fin; 28.05 DK 

Clint Bowyer (29): love bowyer on Sunday, looked solid in the duel and working with the fords could find his way up front. 24.83 Avg Fin; 20.25 DK

Fades: 

The front row  Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (1) and Alex Bowman (2):  Never play the front row at the 500 IMO I could see either leading some laps early on depending on how the lines form and shake out, but the risk is too high to pay off.

Almirola (5), Byron (4), Johnson (6), Larson (8):  they will be protected early by being with like manufacturers but none of them offer enough upside for me to play them especially with the others in the price range that offer way more upside.

7.9k-6k:

Faves: Really anyone starting 13th on back in this group, the goal is pick a few and hope they avoid the big one, 

Fade: 

Newman (7):  starting to high with very little upside, again will be protected early by the fords, but just not worth the risk with everyone else offering the PD upside

The rest:

Faves: love Ty Dillon (24) 25.60 Avg Fin; 21.60 Dk, McDowell (26) 15.0 Avg Fin; 31.70 DK Avg, and Corey Lajoie (36) 27.33 Avg Fin; 16.67 DK Avg: they are strong superspeedway racers and stay out of trouble for the most part, and that’s 99% of the battle avoid the mess and be there at the end of the race and pick up valuable PD points, see above on Corey Lajoie.

2019 Optimal Lineup:

Erik Jones $8200: Start 28th; Finish 3rd; 10FL; 0LL; 70.50 DK Points

Michael McDowell $5900: Start 34th; Finish 5th; 5FL; 2LL; 70.50 DK

Kyle Larson $7800: Start 26th; Finish 7th; 9FL; 0LL; 60.50 DK

Ross Chastain $4800: Start 36th; Finish 10th; 4FL; 0LL; 62.0 DK

Kyle Busch $9600: Start 31st; Finish 2nd; 4 FL; 37LL; 82.75 DK

Denny Hamlin $1000: Start 10th;Finish 1st; 2FL; 30LL; 63.50 DK

Totals: $46300 Salary; 409.75 DK Points

Really any of these guys offer PD upside and salary savings ( although you don’t worry about that here).  Justin Haley won the summer rain shortened race here last year, so it can be done.

Daytona offers a different dynamic as far as a DFS view goes.  It’s really just a plug and play type race, don’t go crazy if you are new to DFS it can be really a gut punch winning a lot on one lap to losing it all the next.  If you pick the drivers that can avoid the big one you will be fine. Good luck this weekend and let’s start off with a bang.

Note: All Data is collected from Racing Reference, some numbers may be off my half a point here or there, I chalk this up to maybe recalculation of some data post-race.