Laps: 200

Dominator Points:150

Fast Laps: 100

Laps Led: 50

The NASCAR west coast swing continues as we go to Auto Club Speedway in Fontana CA. This is the first 2 mile track on the schedule, and we will see high speeds and tire fall off come Sunday.  Looking at the forecast this will be a tough race to judge as the temp were in the 80s today (Friday) for practice and will be in the 50s come Sunday race time. Chevys showed tons of speed in Vegas and Chase Elliott had the best car on the long run, but a flat tire cost him his chance of winning.  Logano picked up his second consecutive Spring Vegas win Sunday by playing the strategy and staying out on the last caution.  

Let’s dive into Sunday’s race, as always all data points are from the last 6 races unless noted.

10k+:

Kevin Harvick(): Comes in as the top priced driver this week, showed good short run speed last week in Vegas, he has been hit or miss here.  3 top 5s here and 2 finishes outside the top 30.  

Kyle Busch(): Has been the best car here as of late has the second best overall finish of 7.6 in the last 6 races, second best Average running position of 6.4, led the second most laps (208) and most fast laps (654), and the best DK average of 43.05.  Showed great long run speed in practice and comes in as my best play in this range.

Joey Logano(): Comes in off the win in Vegas but has never won here in his career, he does have 4 top fives in his last 6 races here just not sure he will pay off his tag come Sunday, I will be looking to spend my money elsewhere.

MTJ (): has one win here in 2018 which he dominated, other than that he has been average, as always the team worked on race runs and will probably qualify mid pack, depending on that he will be a fade for me this week other guys will show dom potential.

Brad Keselowski (): has been great here over the last six, has the best average finish of 7.5 and the third best DK avg of 40.21.  My worry here is it seems Penske is shifting their resources to the 22 and the 12. I won’t have any shares of Brad come Sunday.

8k-10k:

My Faves in this range:

Chase Elliott (13): Comes in with an average finish of 10.75 and 34.69 DK points which ranks 3rd in this range.  He didn’t show up on the speed charts in practice, but he also didn’t last week and had the best car, I will expect the same this week.  To a dominating extent probably not.

Kyle Larson (9): I expected more from Larson last week and boy was I wrong, it happens Larson does have 4 top 2 finishes here in the last 6, his other two were 39,26.  He is a fringe play for me but can’t deny his history at 2 mile tracks.

Ryan Blaney (16):  He is my absolute favorite play in this range I will have tons of Blaney, he looked dominate in practice fastest in 20 lap 2nd in 15 lap, 4th in 10 lap.  He easily could have won both races already this year.  I expect a big day out of Blaney and by the way his paint scheme is a tribute to Kobe….

Denny Hamlin (28): for me is a total PD play, I won’t have any and it could bite me, but he even stated this isn’t one of his best tracks.  He does have an average finish of 11.6 here.

JJ (2):  Home track for JJ and one big stat he has here.  In his 25 starts here he has completed every lap, that’s impressive.  He is the active leader in wins here with 6. And in his last 6 races here he has an average finish of 13.5 and 39.88 DK points.

Kurt Busch (4): He for me is my contrarian Dom pick, I believe everyone will focus on Bowman here.  Kurt has 41.96 Dk average the best in this group and was top 5 in all the consecutive lap averages in final practice.

Alex Bowman (3):  His numbers aren’t great  average finish of 22.25 and only 25.06 Dk avg.  But the speed was shown in practice, and the industry pundits are all over this play.  Read above for your pivot.

Erik Jones (29):  is a pivot from Hamlin here and has the numbers to back it up also with a 12.67 average finish.  Take the discount here over Hamlin.

Fades:

Almirola (6): starts too high for me to play this week with an average finish of 19.17 and only 24.33 DK points Play jones or Kurt before Almirola.

6k-7.9k;

My faves in this range:

Austin Dillon (25): solid PD play in this range and good history here 4 top 11s here in the last six and an average finish of 13.67.  I believe he may go a bit overlooked as he is priced right above the rookies. Was 10th in the e15 lap average.

Stenhouse (10): Is a sneaky play in this range.  I don’t see a ton of ownership here and that’s the reason I’m listing him here.  Average finish of 18 here but has shown good things in his new ride the first two races this season.  

Tyler Reddick (19):  This track fits his driving style and He continues to be the cheapest of the 3 big rookies.  I will have plenty of shares of Reddick.

Ross Chastain (27): back in the 6 car and starting 27th I like the value here over last week when he was starting 15th.

My Fades:

Pretty much the rest of this group, nobody stands out as far as value here IMO,  I may change my mind over night as always, so you will have to jump in the Slack to find out if anyone else pops.

The rest:

As always here we are looking for guys who can finish races. Those guys are Ty Dillon(24), JHN (23), Preece (20), Lajoie (26).  I loved McDowell but him qualifying (8) is just too high for me.

Thanks for reading fellas and check us out in the Slack Chat for more race day chat.  As always these opinions are my own and are subject to change.