This weekend the Monster Energy Series makes its way to New York State to battle on 2nd road course of the season. While the drivers this week have to adjust to turning right this week, us as DFS players have to make some adjustments as well. We will have to adjust our mentality when it comes to the dominator. With Sunday’s race being only 90 laps, there’s not gonna be a lot of dominator points to go around. In fact, in the last 3 road course races, the dominator has only led an average of 52 laps. That ends up being only 13 points for laps led. More than 3 drivers scored more PD points than that in each of those races. If we dive into the numbers further, we see the trend continues with the “2nd dominator”. The 2nd dominator only averaged a total of 26 laps led, or 6.5 points, in that same sample. On average, a whopping 7.33 drivers per race, scored more PD points than the 6.5 points gained by leading 26 laps. The top PD play from each of the last three road courses scored an average of 23 PD points per race, 10 more points than the dominators scored for laps led! We still would like to pick up those dominator points, but I don’t think it is imperitive to cash this week. I will be constructing my lines with a balanced format, combining drivers with Top 5 Upside and drivers that have a high PD potential. I don’t see myself using any deep punts this week, it doesn’t look like any of them have the history or speed to show they can deliver the amount of PD we are gonna need. Once again, this week is an impound race, so do not set your line ups until inspection is finished Sunday morning! Cars who fail will be sent to the back and their official starting position will change. There may end up being guys who I don’t mention here that will turn into chalk plays after inspection, so follow me on Twitter @dfsnascar to get up to the minute info!
- Kyle Busch $11600 – Rowdy once again comes in as my top ranked driver this week. Kyle looks like he has the car to beat, he had the fastest 5 lap average in both practice sessions. He finished 3rd in this race last year leading 31 laps, and inished 2nd at Sonoma earlier this season. He can easily dominate this race and win, or at the very least, he’s a safe bet to lead a chunk of laps and get a Top 5.
- Chase Elliot $10300 – Last year’s winner showed up this weekend with a fast car again. Chase was 2nd fastest in 5 lap speed in both practices. Elliot’s speed combined with winning the pole, gives him instant potential to get out and lead a portion of this race. He backed up last year’s win with a 6th at the Roval, and had a good run going early this season at Sonoma before engine troubles took him out.
- Martin Truex $11300 – Truex has turned into a road course beast late in his career. Not only did he finish 2nd in this race last year, but he won at Sonoma early this year leading 59 laps from the SP 8. No reason we can’t expect to see the same from SP 4 this week!.
- Denny Hamlin $9400 – I don’t know if there is anyone hotter right now than Denny Hamlin! He is on a run of 3 straight Top 5 finishes, including a win last week at Pocono. He carries that momentum to the site of his only road course win in his career. Combine that with his 3rd fastest speed in both practices, he easily gives you Top 3 Upside out of SP 6.
- Joey Logano $9100 – Logano is a great value this week and our first PD play on the slate, $700 cheaper than last week! Joey had the 12th fastest 5 lap average in final practice, but only managed to qualify in SP 21. He has 1 win and 5 Top 10’s in 10 starts at the Glen, and prior to last week’s 13th place finish at Pocono, he had 4 straight Top 10’s. I’m projecting him for another Top 10 this week, paying off his $9100 price tag easily with the added PD points.
- Ryan Blaney $8700 – Blaney is another driver who is on fire as of late. He comes into this week with a Top 10 finish in 4 of the last 5 races. Not only does he have momentum, but he has proven to be a contender at road courses. He has an avg finish of 5.33 in his last 3 road course starts, including a win on the Roval last year. Blaney again shows Top 10 speed this week and rolls off the grid in SP 19, brings us great PD Upside!
- Daniel Suarez $8100 – Suarez is another PD play that I love this week! He starts in SP 18 and has showed Top 15 speed in practice this week. I know it doesn’t seem like a ton of PD on the surface, but if we look into the numbers further we see that Daniel finished 4th in this race last year from SP 21. Though I don’t see a Top 5 this week, I believe he can sneak into the Top 10 before the checkered flag waves.
- Alex Bowman $7600 – I have no idea what DK was thinking dropping Bowman’s price $1700 this week, but I love the value he gives us on this slate. All the Hendrick cars have shown speed this weekend and Bowman is no different. He posted the 5th fastest 5 lap average in the final practice, but a botched qualifying run has him starting SP 17. I like him to improve on his avg finish of 10.67 in the last 3 road course races.
- William Byron $7200 – Just like at Sonoma earlier this year, Byron rolls of SP 2. In that race he jumped out and led the first 29 laps and looked good doing it. He was even able to drive through the field after an off scheduled pit stop. Things are starting to click with the young driver coming off a 4th place finish at Pocono last week. His 4th fastest practice times indicate he has Top five potential and could even lead some laps. Even a top 10 would pay off this cheap price tag. .
- Ryan Newman $7400 – We can’t talk PD without talking about Ryan Newman. Newman has an average PD of +10.67 in the last three road course races, including +14 spots in his 7th place finish at Sonoma earlier this season. Newman also has a PD of +11.8 in the last 5 races this season. He just continues to get everything he can out of his equipment. Once again, Newman will start in SP 25, giving him the opportunity to deliver some great PD again.
- Daniel Hemric $7000 – Hemric is coming of a 7th place, +10 PD finish last week at Pocono. He also had another +10 PD performance with his 15th place finish at Sonoma earlier this year. He offers PD potential again this week From SP 23 while having the 16th fastest 5 lap average in final practice.
- Matt Dibenedetto $6500 – Matty D is easily my favorite 6k play. Once again we are in love with some PD potential. In the last two road courses, Matt has gained +15 spots over his SP, including a 4th place finish at Sonoma. He once again is showing practice speeds far greater than his 20th place qualifying run. A Top 12 seems like a safe bet, but he has an even higher ceiling.
- Austin Dillon $6600 – Dillon has been absolutely terrible at road courses, but his price and 28th place SP makes him a high risk high reward play this week. In a slate where I don’t seem to like too many sub 7k guys, Dillon brings some value. He did manage to get a 24th place finish at Sonoma, and rolled off the truck with the 17th fastest five lap average in the first practice. We really just need him to squeak into the Top 20 to pay off this price point.
Thanks for reading! These are just the plays that screamed out to me, check my sheet below for my complete rankings and data!