As the baseball season approaches it’s time for some award predictions. I’ll be using odds from MyBookie.ag (use BENCHED for a first time 50% deposit bonus up to $1K). Some odds are head scratching at MyBookie while others are joyous to attack. There are the captain obvious picks like Max Scherzer for NL CY Young, but I won’t be going there. The shortest odds I’ll have is +275 and will go as long as +8000. So, let’s have some fun and check out some 2019 MLB Award Predictions and Odds.
AL Cy Young Award
The leaders for AL Cy Young are Corey Kluber +275 and newly extended Chris Sale +300. Sale is a decent look indeed and was on his way to the 2018 Cy until he got hurt and had his innings limited in 2019. Kluber is always a candidate, but as you’ll read shortly isn’t my favorite on his own staff. There are 3 prices I like when it comes to AL Cy Young award winners. Here they are.
Carlos Carrasco +1600 – Cookie has been the forgotten man in recent seasons when it comes to the Indians staff. Everyone talks about Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber, but Carrasco has held his own. Carrasco has been durable in recent years, throwing at least 192 innings in each of the last 2 seasons. He’s also had at least 17 wins while having an ERA of 3.38 or better. Those are Cy Young caliber numbers and this may be the year he takes it home.
Gerrit Cole +2000 – Last season was his first year in Houston and he definitely made a name for himself. If it weren’t for teammate Justin Verlander all eyes may have been on Cole. Cole completed his second straight season with at least 200 innings pitched, something that we definitely don’t see that often in this era of baseball. Cole’s K/9 went from 8.69 to 12.4 which is quite the jump. The most impressive stat may have been his insane 2.88 ERA which wasn’t a fluke when you look at his 3.04 xFIP. This could definitely be the season we see Cole take over and win his first Cy Young award.
Jose Berrios +2800 – When it comes to Berrios this is a combo of seeing certain improvements in 2018 as well as a solid price tag. The once top prospect Berrios hasn’t been able to put that full season together yet, but in 2018 we did see 192.1 innings which is a nice start in the right direction. He had his second straight season with an ERA around 3.89. His biggest struggles have come on the road and if he can change that we could be looking at a low 3 ERA with possible more strikeouts. There’s a ton of talent in Berrios’ arm and that breakout season is coming soon.
NL Cy Young Award
When it comes to NL Cy Young you have the usual suspects leading the way with Max Scherzer at +225 and the defending Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom at +350. Those are all fine and dandy. They have a great shot of winning year in and year out. But, let’s take a look at 2 other candidates for NL Cy Young with some nice value behind them.
Noah Syndergaard +1400 – We all know that Thor has unlimited talent in that right arm. Unlimited talent that unfortunately has been limited most seasons due to injuries. Syndergaard has only managed 150+ innings in 3 of his last 4 seasons, maxing out around 180. If he could give 180+ innings in 2019 he’ll be right there in the NL Cy Young talk. Even when he has in injury riddled season he still brings a low 3’s ERA with plus strikeout stuff. He’s playing with a better offense behind him this season and could be in line for that Cy Young season.
Zack Wheeler +3300 – Yep, this isn’t a typo. I am HUGE on Wheeler this season. Coming off a breakout 2018 season where we saw him throw 182.1 big league innings, second time in 3 years so that should quiet the durability questions. He finished the season with a 3.31 ERA, but it was the second half of the season that really stood out. When Thor and others were hurt, Wheeler was the number 2 behind deGrom. In 75 second half innings Wheeler put together a 1.68 ERA, an opponents batting average of .174 and struck out 73. Wheeler really found his groove in the second half and it’s too great of a number to pass up for a potential Cy Young 2019 season.
AL Most Valuable Player
When it comes to AL MVP it’s easy to eat the chalk with Mike Trout +250 or even Mookie Betts +600. I’d say Betts is in play, I won’t write him up, but a player of his talents, that’s pushing a close second to Trout at +600 isn’t a horrible play at all. With all that being said, there are 2 longer odd players I don’t mind taking a stab at for AL MVP.
J.D. Martinez +1600 – This number blows my mind. We are talking about one of the best hitters in all of baseball and 2.67 the odds of his teammate Betts.Just Dongs is coming off back to back seasons with at least 43 home runs. He’s hit over .300 for 3 straight seasons including last seasons .330. He nearly hit for the triple crown in 2018 and is putting together seasons that resemble a similar player, Miguel Cabrera in his prime. J.D. Martinez is insane value at this price to win AL MVP.
Matt Chapman +4000 – I can’t just go with the easy plays, I have to give you at least one long shot. Matty Chapman is a player I am huge on this season.There’s a good chance he’s one of the Top 5 third baseman in all of baseball this year, with upside of being the best. He is a statcast god when you look at his hard hit rate, barrels etc. He just needs to improve that launch angle. If he can elevate the ball a little more he could be in for 35+ home runs with a batting average around .280. Not to mention his gold glove skills and he could be a dark horse for AL MVP.
NL Most Valuable Player
When it comes to NL MVP it is pretty wide open. Bryce Harper leads the way at +400 and he’s followed by Nolan Arenado +600 (he’s due for one). There are some really deep offenses in the NL, so I have 3 targets including a major long shot that might be worth taking a stab on this season.
Paul Goldschmidt +900 – Goldy has a new home this season as he was traded to the Cardinals this offseason. Leaving Arizona means leaving the humidor. Even with that humidor last season he managed 33 home runs, his 3rd 30+ homer season in the last 4 years. He’s hit .290 or better in every season since 2013. Goldy is just a pure hitter and now plays in the NL Central which will have some more favorable yards then he was used to in the NL West (outside of Coors). He’ll also have a very good lineup surrounding him with Matt Carpenter in front of him and DeJong/Ozuna behind him.
Ronald Acuña +2000 – This price just seems off. To me Acuña should be around +1400 or better. This will be Acuña’s 2nd season in the bigs and he’ll be looking to improve on his NL ROY season. Acuña managed to hit .293 with 26 home runs and stole 16 bases in just 111 games. Put a full season behind Acuña while batting cleanup and we could be looking at an east 30+ home runs, with close to 100 RBIs and Runs, as well as potentially 20+ steals. Those scream NL MVP consideration.
Juan Soto +5000 – This is purely a price play. Juan Soto burst onto the scene in 2018 with a .292 batting average and 22 home runs. He was a very close runner up to Acuña for the NL ROY. Soto will still be hitting in the middle of a very good Nationals order and the production should be the same if not better in 2019.
AL Rookie of the Year
When it comes to the ROY awards I will get a little chalkier. On occasion there are some long shots, some out of nowhere winners, but for the most part the chalk usually wins or finishes near the top at ROY.
Eloy Jimenez +275 – I liked Eloy for AL ROY before he signed his extension to lock in time on opening day. But now I like him even more. Eloy is one of the most explosive offensive weapons we have seen come through the minors in a while. He’s up there with the likes of Acuña and Soto. He will provide more power than most with at least 25 home run upside. He’ll hit for a decent average and will provide great run production. Barring any unforeseen injury, Jimenez is the heavy favorite for AL ROY.
Yusei Kikuchi +1400 – If Eloy doesn’t take home AL ROY then Kikuchi would be my target. The +1400 number seems like some solid value as well. He’s thrown at least 160 innings in each of the last 2 seasons. He has some nasty swinging strike stuff. The Mariners are going to manipulate his innings so he makes it the full season. Kikuchi is the ace of the Mariners and I wouldn’t be shocked if we a solid rookie campaign leaving him near the top in the AL ROY voting.
NL Rookie of the Year
Victor Robles +300 – No intro needed here as we’ll being on the chalk again. For those that have been listening to me this draft season, I am all in on Robles. I’ve called him the 2019 version of Ronald Acuña. Robles has 25 home run and 25 stolen base potential. And that may be his floor. He was the Nats top prospect and should of had the call up when Soto did if he wasn’t hurt. Robles is in for a monster 2019 season and this +300 should only become more expensive.
Pete Alonso +500 – Alonso made every ooh and ahh in the Arizona Fall League and he carried that over to the spring. He is a very very strong man that can hit the snot out of the baseball. I’ve compared him to a right handed Jim Thome. He made the Mets out of Spring Training and could be in for a really nice season. In the minors last season he hit 36 home runs with a decent batting average and we can expect at least 25 home runs with the Mets. A lot to like with Pete “Don’t Call Me Peter” Alonso in 2019.
Some Fun Props
No real analysis here but here are some targets for most pitcher wins and most home runs for 2019.
Most Wins – Gerrit Cole +3000
Most Home Runs – J.D. Martinez +1200, Joey Gallo +2500, Yasiel Puig +8000
Again, use these for entertainment or just information. Only place bets within your means.