Welcome back once again for another weekly PGA DFS preview with @DFSduncan. This week we continue the Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer invitational at Bay Hill. Keith Mitchell nailed a clutch birdie putt on the 72nd hole at this past week’s Honda Classic to claim his first career victory and deprive us all of a 3-man playoff that would have included Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler along with himself. Regardless the tournament had fantastic drama over the back 9 and started the Florida swing strong.
Course Preview and Key Stats
Bay Hill is Arnold Palmer’s jewel in Central Florida. It is a par 72 that plays around 7400 yards. Like PGA National last week the wind can definitely have an effect on the difficulty of the course so it’ll be important to check the weather on Wednesday to see if any of the tee times will have an advantage. The course features 4 par 5’s that are all scorable holes and 4 par 3’s that can all play over 200 yards in length. Players will be facing some long approach shots into the greens as many of the par 4’s are doglegs that will force most players to keep the driver in the bag. Key stats I’ll be looking at this week:
SG: Par 5
Proximity >200 yards
Justin Rose ($10,700)
This spot was originally reserved for Tiger until his WD this afternoon. Rose could possibly fly under the radar given that he hasn’t played competitively since his win at Torrey Pines. Rose gained over 5 shots on approach at Torrey and is top 10 in my model over the last 4, 8, 12, 24, 50, and 100 rounds. He’s the only player in the field who can say that. Couple that with his elite course history (top 13 in each of the last 3 years) and he’s a strong a play as anyone up top.
Bryson DeChambeau ($9,700)
Bryson finished in 2nd here last year and his form has been stellar so far this year outside of a 56th place finish in his last start at the WGC Mexico. Bryson lost 4.9 strokes putting and 3.3 strokes around the green in Mexico. I’m expecting a big bounce back week from Bryson this week and his price is low compared to the other studs in the field this week.
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300)
I don’t love this range this week so I’ll be giving an extra pick in the $8.2k-$7k range rather than giving 2 here. Matsuyama is off to a strong start this year and ranks 6th in my model over his last 24 rounds. He’s gained strokes on approach in every event he’s played this calendar year and his last 4 starts have all been top 20’s. If his putter gets hot he’ll be in contention on Sunday.
Luca Glover ($8,200)
Glover has been one of the hottest players on tour as of late. He’s 16th in my model and has top 10’s in both of his last 2 starts. His putter has been on fire along with his approach game. He’s gained over 2 strokes on the field in both categories his last 2 tournaments. His game is in a great place right now.
Rafa Cabrera Bello ($7,500)
RCB is a great value at this price point this week. He’s 11th in my model and has been extremely consistent. He has a top 25 in each of his 3 starts in the US this calendar year playing against elite fields at the WGC Mexico and the Genesis Open, in addition to his start at Pebble Beach. He provides some
great cost savings here.
Ben An ($7,500)
An has made the cut in this event in each of the last 3 years. He’s been abysmal on the greens in his last 2 tournaments (Honda and WGC Mexico), but his approach game has been solid as of late, especially last week where he gained 5 strokes on the field. I like his chances for a good finish if he can put even anywhere close to field average this week.
Nate Lashley ($6,900)
Lashley pops in my model at his price point and has made the cut in all 3 of his stats this year including top 12’s at Pebble Beach and the Puerto Rico Open. This will be his first start at Bay Hill, but he’s another guy whose approach game appears to be dialed in right now with having gained 6.2 and 1.7 shots on the field in this area (note: the Puerto Rico Open did not have shot tracker stats). I think he’s a good bet to make the cut and hopefully climb the leaderboard a bit this weekend.
Talor Gooch ($6,800)
Gooch has been a darling in the DFS community thus far in 2019. He followed a missed cut at the Sony Open with a 4th place finish at the Desert Classic and a 3rd place finish at Torrey Pines. He then pulled the rug out on DFS players by missing the cut at Waste Management and Pebble Beach. He had a strong week at Honda last week finishing in 20th and gaining 6.5 shots on approach. When his irons are dialed in like that he’s a very strong play. I’ll be hoping we see the Talor Gooch from the Desert Classic, Torrey,
and Honda and not the one from Waste Management and Pebble Beach.
This brings us to the end of my Draftkings preview for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Tiger’s WD is sure to disappoint many, but this is still a very strong field playing at Bay Hill as guys will be looking to pick up
momentum prior to next week’s Player’s Championship. As always feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @DFSduncan and you can also find me in the Fantasy Degens slack chat.